In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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Top Tight Ends in the FantasyLabs Models
There are four tight ends atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models.
Here’s where they place within our Week 13 Fantasy Rankings (as of Wednesday evening):
- George Kittle (2nd)
- Mike Gesicki (9th)
- Foster Moreau (10th)
- Zach Ertz (15th)
We’ll discuss why these four are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other wide receivers in potential high-scoring games.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Tuesday
- Wide Receivers on Wednesday
- Running Backs on Friday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Tight Ends
George Kittle ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel): San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Seattle Seahawks (45.5 total)
The real question surrounding Kittle – who leads our FanDuel Tournament Model – is how much of Deebo Samuel’s vacated targets will head his way. Kittle has 21 targets in his four games back from injury, but the distribution is all over the place. He has a high of eight and a low of two (which came last week) in that stretch.
It’s hard to say for sure what Kittle’s usage will be since he’s yet to play a game without Samuel. However, we can look at the games in which Samuel was used more as a running back for a clue. Running back, Elijah Mitchell missed Week 11, and Samuel handled eight carries in that game. Kittle only had four targets then (and two in Week 12, in which Samuel handled six carries).
All of which is to say we probably shouldn’t assume a usage spike for Kittle this week. Still, he has scored at least 11.4 FanDuel points in three of his four games since returning from injury. With Seattle ranking 27th in DVOA against the pass, it’s safe to project Kittle towards the higher end of his range of outcomes, at least from an efficiency standpoint.
His total production will come down to the game environment. San Francisco is the second most run-heavy team in the league. They will likely lean even heavier towards the ground game with Samuel out, particularly if they establish a solid lead.
Kittle is a better play on FanDuel this week. Not only does he have a 98% Bargain Rating there, but his moderate volume is less of a hindrance there. He has the second-highest Ceiling Projection in our FanDuel Models.
Mike Gesicki ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): Miami Dolphins (-5) vs. New York Giants (40.5 total)
Gesicki has emerged as a top-tier tight end this season, ranking in the top five in catches and yards. He’s been aided by the lack of viable receivers for the Dolphins – who’ve been without Will Fuller and Davante Parker for the majority of the season. While Parker may come back this week (stop me if you’ve heard that before), Fuller is still missing, leaving Gesicki as effectively the third wide receiver for Miami.
Gesicki’s status as a big, athletic wide receiver (that we get to roster as a tight end) should be well known by now. Of his 602 snaps on the season, only 55 saw him lined up as a tight end. Interestingly enough, the week in which he saw the most snaps as a tight end was Week 8 – the last time Parker was active.
That could actually be advantageous this week, as lining up inline could presumably lead to some better matchups for Gesicki. It just depends on whether the targets are still there.
Gesicki probably doesn’t belong in your lineup if only making a few, but his athleticism gives him a ceiling only a few other tight ends can match. Tight end is a high variance position, so having some exposure to all of the high-ceiling plays on FanDuel makes sense this week. That’s where he leads one of our Pro Models.
Foster Moreau ($2,700 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel): Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) vs. Washington Football Team (50 total)
If you’ve noticed a lot more FanDuel talk than usual in this piece, you’re right. It’s because, at only $2,7000, Moreau leads all of our DraftKings (and two of our FanDuel) models this week. Starter Darren Waller is doubtful but unlikely to play on Sunday. That makes Moreau an enormous value on both sites, but especially DraftKings.
Moreau played every offensive snap the last time Waller missed time. He drew six targets and caught them all for 60 yards and a score. That came against an Eagles team that struggles heavily against tight ends, so we can’t bank on that level of efficiency this week. Still, even half of his 18-point score from that game would be a major value this week.
While Washington does better than the Eagles against tight ends, they aren’t a matchup to avoid either. They rank 30th in overall passing DVOA while allowing a +0.8 Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to tight ends. Moreau can certainly beat this matchup.
Naturally, Moreau’s ownership will be extremely high this week. It’s certainly reasonable to avoid playing a chalk tight end in tournaments, given the extremely low floor even higher-end tight ends exhibit most weeks. On the other hand, the salary he frees up allows a lot of lineup flexibility, meaning he could “fail” in the box score but still help your lineup.
Of course, playing Moreau in cash games (on both sites) is a no-brainer. He leads the slate in Pts/Sal on both. It’s somewhat close on FanDuel, but on DraftKings, he leads all players by a wide margin.
(Obviously, this is all dependent on Waller actually being out. If news breaks later in the week that he’s expected to play, Moreau has little-to-no value.)
Zach Ertz ($5,400 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel): Arizona Cardinals (-7.5) at Chicago Bears (45.5 total)
Ertz is the final tight end to lead one of our FanDuel Models. Ertz has played only two games with quarterback Kyler Murray, as Ertz’s trade to the cardinals came shortly before Murray’s ankle injury. In those games, Ertz saw a total of nine targets, posting a 7/108/1 line.
Ertz’s production actually spiked without Murray, as Colt McCoy looked his way more frequently. There might actually be something to that, with Murray preferring to target receivers at a higher rate. That makes Ertz a bit uncertain for this week, as Murray is expected back in the lineup.
The presumed return of DeAndre Hopkins is another strike against Ertz. Hopkins leads the Cardinals in target share when active. There’s likely to be a rather limited number of total passes available this week with the Cardinals as 7.5-point favorites against the Bears.
Still, Ertz could get there with efficiency. Chicago ranks 27th overall against the pass. It’s also a top-five matchup for Ertz in terms of Opponent Plus/Minus allowed. He’s not my favorite play this week, but he could post a solid score on limited targets if he finds the endzone.
Other Tight Ends With Week-Winning Upside
With Moreau being the clear and obvious budget play this week, we’ll turn our focus to some players at the higher salary range with some upside. As ownership condenses around Moreau, finding a big score from someone else at the position will be extra valuable this week. You’d gain an edge on a huge number of your competitors – particularly on DraftKings.
The following players have a reasonable shot of doing just that.
Mark Andrews ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel): Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (44 total)
Were it not for the continued dominance of Travis Kelce, Andrews would be far and away the top fantasy tight end in the league. He’s outscored everyone else at the position by almost 40 PPR points on the year and ranks second in targets and target share at the position. He has a slightly positive matchup this week, although passing volume could be a bit lower given the low-scoring expectations of this game. Andrews has the highest Ceiling Projection on both sites.
Kyle Pitts ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel): Atlanta Falcons (+11) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (50.5 total)
Pitts has two games over 26 DraftKings points this season – and no other games over 12.3. He’s continuing to be priced for his ceiling, which we haven’t seen since October. Still, there could be another big game for Pitts at some point this year. Tampa Bay faces a higher pass-play rate than any other team, and Atlanta has little else on their roster that’s worthy of passing to. (With apologies to Cordarelle Patterson, who’s been more valuable as a running back this year.)
We could legitimately see double-digit targets for Pitts this week, putting him in position for a big score. Given the struggles of Atlanta’s passing attack, he’s not a safe play by any stretch. However, this is the perfect “pay up to be contrarian” spot for the talented rookie.
Dallas Goedert ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel): Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at New York Jets (45.5 total)
Goedert’s post-Ertz production has been spotty, as the Eagles have adopted a hilariously run-first offensive mentality. The likeliest outcome is for that to continue this week as solid favorites against the Jets. Still, Philadelphia lost to the other bad team in New York last week, so they could end up passing more than expected. That would be a great thing for Goedert, who has a 25% target share since Ertz left town. (As a point of reference, no tight end is above 23.45% on the season.)
