The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Russell Westbrook vs. Sacramento Kings – $10,800 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
The Kings have gotten no better on defense since the firing of Luke Walton on Nov. 21, ranking 25th in defensive efficiency in the four games since. Westbrook should have a soft matchup, and with the pace in which the Lakers play at, it’s no surprise to see Westbrook with a high ceiling in our Player Models.
Top Value: Tyus Jones vs. Toronto Raptors – $5,200 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
The price has come up on Jones, but with Ja Morant still missing from the lineup, he should continue to be a strong value play. Our model sees a 6X game in his future on DraftKings and even a 7X game on FanDuel, given his price over there. He should be locked into at least 20 minutes, and with his efficiency, he should be able to hit value and then some.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker vs. Golden State Warriors – $8,600 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
Booker has been lighting it up in the scoring column of late, going for 30 or more points in three straight games. The issue is that he’s done little else on the stat sheet. Well, with strong usage and minutes projections, our model gives Booker the highest ceiling on the slate at DraftKings and the second-best to only James Harden on FanDuel.
Booker carries with him a solid +0.31 Opponent Plus/Minus with him on FanDuel.
Top Value: Derrick Rose vs. Brooklyn Nets – $4,300 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
It remains to be seen how the guard position will shake out with the Knicks, but it’s fair to expect extra minutes for Rose now that Kemba Walker won’t be receiving any run. There are players our model loves slightly more on both sites, but the price discrepancies make them hard to universally recommend. You can also try Cameron Payne on DraftKings and Jordan Poole on FanDuel.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant vs. New York Knicks – $11,100 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
Durant comes with a hefty price tag, but it’s because he’s got incredible upside against Brooklyn’s in-city rival on Tuesday night. Durant’s matchup with one of the most disappointing defenses this season gives him a +0.72 Opponent Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +1.76 on FanDuel, making him one of the best options on the slate.
Top Value: Kyle Anderson vs. Toronto Raptors – $4,400 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
In the wake of the injury to Ja Morant, Anderson has been afforded some extra Usage while he’s been on the floor, though the minutes have yet to really change drastically.
Still, our model gives him a +4.11 Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and +6.11 on FanDuel, with his minutes expected to creep up over 24.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Julius Randle vs. Brooklyn Nets – $9,400 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
Randle has been a disappointment lately, and it’s easy to forget he’s just a couple of games removed from going for 50 fantasy points and garnering 31-plus percent Usage.
Well, our model projects Randle for heavy minutes and a Usage Rate of roughly 28%, so it’s no wonder he’s got one of the highest ceilings on the slate. He went for 60 fantasy points on DraftKings and 56 on FanDuel the last time he faced the Nets in April of this year, and the game before that saw him go over 60 fantasy points. He likes this rivalry.
Top Value: Brandon Clarke vs. Toronto Raptors – $3,700 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
It’s hard to find a power forward that you’d be excited about down below $5,000, but Clarke is probably the best option if you’re going to reach into the bargain bin. His price is stellar at DraftKings, and he’s got to be worth a look given his ability to score 30+ fantasy points in five of the last seven despite inconsistent minutes. We’ve got him projected to hit 5X salary at the very least on FanDuel, and he should be able to reach 6X on DraftKings.
Center
Top Ceiling:
Top Value: Anthony Davis vs. Sacramento Kings – $10,600 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
As I mentioned earlier, the Kings have been a disaster on the defensive end even without Luke Walton in the mix on the bench. They have also disappointed in the rebounding department, which should open things up for a massive Anthony Davis game.
His projected ceiling tops the slate at center, and while he’s a great play on DraftKings with a +1.31 Opponent Plus/Minus, his +3.05 on FanDuel makes him a stud.
Top Value: Precious Achiuwa vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $4,400 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
The Grizzlies have fallen off a bit over the last five games with a rebounding rate which puts them 16th in the league and a disastrous 123 defensive rating. They still rank eighth in pace during this time, though, so despite a relatively total, this should be a somewhat decent spot to attack.
Enter Achiuwa, who has seen 33+ minutes over the last two games. We project him to get heavy run once again and have him set near 8X on DraftKings at this price, while he’s still a solid 6X play on FanDuel.
