In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Top Tight Ends in the FantasyLabs Models
There are two tight ends atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models.
Here’s where they place within our Week 11 Fantasy Rankings (as of Wednesday evening):
- Travis Kelce (1st)
- Dawson Knox (13th)
We’ll discuss why these two are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other wide receivers in potential high-scoring games.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Tuesday
- Wide Receivers on Wednesday
- Running Backs on Friday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Tight Ends
Travis Kelce ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (56 total)
As Patrick Mahomes goes, so does his star tight end. Mahomes had a streak of three disappointing games before last week. In Week 10, he exploded for over 400 passing yards, with 119 of them coming by way of his tight end. It’s probably not a coincidence that Mahomes’ best fantasy game came when he threw ten targets to Kelce. If the Chiefs keep that up, Kelce should dominate this week.
Kelce, like Mahomes, had struggled (by his standards) for the better part of this season. Prior to Week 10, he hadn’t scored 20 DraftKings points since Week 3. He responded in a big way with 22.9 DraftKings points — without the benefit of one of the Chief’s five passing touchdowns.
This week projects to be even better for Kelce. Dallas has a strong pass defense (third in DVOA on the season). However, at least from a fantasy perspective, that has mostly come by limiting receivers. Wideouts have a -1.9 Plus/Minus on the season against the Cowboys. Tight ends have a slightly positive +0.1. Those are DraftKings numbers, by the way, but the pattern holds true on FanDuel as well.
That’s especially important for Kelce, as he and Tyreek Hill account for over 50% of the Cheifs’ targets on the season. They also account for more than half of the team’s passing touchdowns. Which way, those flow will be crucial to deciding who has the better game. (Not that Hill and Kelce production are zero-sum, however, it’s hard to fit Mahomes+Hill+Kelce stacks this week).
This game has a huge Vegas total, as most Chiefs games do. That’s not really enough to draw any conclusions about Kelce (44 of his 63 games played in the Mahomes era have had a total of at least 50, per our Trends Tool). However, this one is also implied to be close, which seems to make a difference:
The combination of high points expectation, a close game, and potentially limited production from Hill is the perfect combination for Kelce. Kelce almost always projects as the top tight end option on the slate — making it hard to pick and choose which games to roster him. This week is special, with a confluence of factors pointing him our way.
Kelce leads the slate in Median, Ceiling, and (tied on DraftKings) Pts/Sal projection this week. He also leads the majority of our models on both sites. He’s a better play on FanDuel, where he has a 99% bargain rating. With that said, relative cheapness might not matter if he explodes for 30+ points against the Cowboys.
Dawson Knox ($4,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-7) at Indianapolis Colts (50 total)
Knox is the only tight end outside of Kelce to lead any of our models this week. He sits atop the DraftKings Cash Game Model, as well as one of our Pro’s personal models.
Playing cheaper tight ends is generally speaking the preferred cash game strategy. The floor on even the top tight ends is lower than at other positions (Kelce has two games with four catches and under 30 yards) that’s it makes sense to take the risk at a lower cost. This week, Knox is (one of) the better options if looking to employ that strategy.
The Bills could be expected to pass a ton this week (read the quarterback breakdown for more) and especially short-area throws. Knox was averaging a reasonable 4.5 targets per game before missing time with injury (not counting his return last week). Assuming he’s back to his usual role, we can pencil him in for another five or so here at a reasonable salary.
Knox also leads the Bills in receiving touchdowns this year, with five in only seven games. We can look at this two ways. First, he’s the leading touchdown scorer on a team facing a pass-funnel defense that’s implied for the slate’s second-best total. Which is all great! On the other hand, Knox’s salary is a bit inflated relative to his role. The touchdowns have driven his scoring up, but those are inherently high variance. With Knox needing to score to be of any value here, how you answer that question makes a big difference in whether you roster Knox.
Knox is also the beneficiary of a great matchup this week. The Colts allow opposing tight ends a +5 Opponent Plus/Minus score, the second-highest on the slate. They also funnel opponents to the air, ranking second in rushing DVOA but 23rd against the pass.
As with most cheaper tight ends, keep your Knox exposure to DraftKings. He has the third-best Projected Plus/Minus there (but ranks seventh on FanDuel).
Other Tight Ends With Week-Winning Upside
It will be a challenge to move off from Kelce this week if paying up at tight end. However, with Kelce’s Ownership Projections fairly high, it could be wise. None of the following players are as strong as Kelce in a vacuum but have a shot at outscoring him this week.
Mark Andrews ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) at Chicago Bears (45 total)
Andrews leads Justin Bailey’s Minimalist Tournament Model on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week. He’s priced frustratingly near Kelce on FanDuel, but a noticeable discount on DraftKings. However, that pricing on FanDuel should lead to drastically reduced ownership there. We currently have him at 1.8% projected ownership.
Andrews is always one of the strongest tight end plays, ranking just behind Kelce in target share on the season. Andrews’ Ravens are implied for only four fewer points this week, so he’s a comparable play. The bigger issue, of course, is how much of the Ravens’ production comes on the ground. Either way, Andrews is a solid pivot off of Kelce, who saves you a ton of ownership, as well as some DraftKings salary.
Darren Waller ($6,100 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel): Las Vegas Raiders (+1) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (50 total)
We have Waller just behind Kelce in Ceiling Projections this week. Waller has a deeper average depth of target (aDOT) than Kelce, as well as a slightly better target share. Of course, the Chiefs throw the ball more often and more effectively than the Raiders as a rule. However, they’re taking on a Bengals team that is more effective against the run than the pass defensively. In a close, high total game, Waller could serve a major role here.
George Kittle ($6,300 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel): San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (45.5 total)
In his six healthy games, Kittle leads all tight ends in target share on the season. Of course, the 49ers are a run-first team, so his raw targets aren’t quite at the level of other top-end players at the position. Still, seven targets on only 19 Jimmy Garoppolo throws last week is encouraging. If the Jaguars keep this one closer than the Rams did (which is crazy that it’s even a possibility, but here we are), Kittle should have a big day. He’s third in our Ceiling Projections this week.
Other Value Tight Ends
Dan Arnold ($4,100 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel): Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (45.5 total)
Arnold leads our DraftKings Projections in Pts/Sal. While his salary has unfortunately crept up a bit from his previous high of $3,500, that was inevitable. Arnold has drawn over seven targets per game over the past five contests and over eight across the last three. He’s an underrated athlete as well:
(From player profiler)
While I’d prefer to continue to get Arnold at sub-$3,500, he makes a ton of sense for cash games this week. He might even score a touchdown someday and be a solid tournament play as well.
Zach Ertz ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel): Arizona Cardinals (-2) at Seattle Seahawks (48.5 total)
Ertz is the rare FanDuel-specific cheap option. He has the best Bargain Rating of any tight end there, which is unusual for lower-priced players. (The next six players in FanDuel Bargain Rating all cost at least $5,900). Ertz is a better play with Kyler Murray active, averaging over 10 FanDuel points with Murray throwing him the ball.
For what it’s worth, our models have Murray projected in so far (practiced on Wednesday). They also have Ertz behind only Kelce in FanDuel Pts/Sal.
