Yahooooo! There are 12 games on the Yahoo main slate that begin at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday. The Broncos and Rams are on bye.
This piece highlights my top overall plays, values, and best tournament plays for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) at each position while using our Player Models. I will specifically be referencing the Bales Model.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Quarterbacks
Top Play
Joe Burrow ($28) @ Las Vegas Raiders
This game has a healthy total of 50 according to the Vegas Dashboard, with both teams implied for close to 25 points. In five games at Allegiant Stadium, the totals have been 60, 59, 29, 55, and 55 points. I’m just saying. Last week, the Browns shut down the Bengals’ passing attack and kept Burrow out of the end zone for the first time this season. The Browns are third in pass rush, according to PFF, while the Raiders are first.
The difference is that the Browns are eighth in coverage while the Raiders are 17th. Las Vegas blitzes at the lowest rate in the league while allowing the fourth-highest aDOT. I like Burrow and Chase, in particular, to have big games in this one.
Top Value
Tua Tagovailoa ($25) @ New York Jets
The Dolphins pass at the third-highest rate while the Jets are dead-last in pass-defense DVOA. 1+1 = 2.
Top Tournament Play
Aaron Rodgers ($33) @ Minnesota Vikings
Rodgers only scored 11.48 DraftKings points last week, so he had a terrible game, right? Well, he went 23-of-37 for 292 yards. He did not toss a touchdown and threw an interception, but the Seahawks were so inept on offense that the Packers weren’t needed to be aggressive.
AJ Dillon will likely be one of the highest rostered players this week, so Rodgers would provide direct leverage against those rosters. Keep in mind that Rodgers missed the game prior to last week as well. Rodgers should be low owned due to the price, recency bias, and the high ranking for the Vikings defense.
Running Backs
Top Play
Christian McCaffrey ($40) vs. Washington Football Team
McCaffrey is slowly rounding into form. He’s only carried 14 and 13 times since returning from injury, but he received 10 targets last week. He may have gotten to 20 carries if the game wasn’t such a blowout. He scored 21.1 Yahoo points despite not scoring a touchdown. When he’s right, CMC is a cheat code because he’s two players in one. Cam Newton will likely be the starter which is a huge upgrade from whatever the Panthers were trotting out there before. Sure, he may vulture some touchdowns, but the offense should be more efficient, and just remember the insane numbers McCaffrey was putting up with Newton at quarterback a few years ago.
Top Value
AJ Dillon ($20) @ Minnesota Vikings
Aaron Jones and Kylin Hill are out. That leaves Dillon and Patrick Taylor as the only running backs on the depth chart. Taylor has played a total of three snaps on the season. Dillon should receive the majority of the work this week. At his price tag, he’s just too cheap for his role. Dillon is not a zero in the passing game and should get all red-zone carries.
Top Tournament Play
Darrel Williams ($15) vs. Dallas Cowboys
Clyde Edwards-Helaire could return this week. He could also be held out until after the bye. Even if he does play, there is uncertainty as to how many snaps he would receive. Enter Williams, who has gone over 20 Yahoo points in two games this season and is coming off a 24.9 performance. As a runner, he hasn’t been great, averaging fewer than four yards a carry in four games, but he’s been heavily involved in the passing game.
Last week, he caught all nine of his targets for 101 yards and a touchdown, with teams keeping two safeties deep, that has opened up the underneath stuff. This game has the highest total on the slate, so there should be plenty of opportunities for fantasy goodies. Dallas is 18th in rush defense DVOA.
Wide Receiver
Top Play
Ja’Marr Chase ($29) @ Las Vegas Raiders
I like this game environment a lot and think the Bengals passing attack bounces back in a big way this weekend. I mentioned most of the reasons why in the Burrow section above. If I like Burrow, then I’m for sure going to like his favorite receiver. Chase has received 13, eight, 10, six, 10, and nine targets over the last six games. He’s scored seven touchdowns on the year and has three games over 100 yards with a high of 201. Chase has an aDOT of 13.2, while the Raiders allow the fourth-highest DaDOT in the league.
Top Value
Tee Higgins ($15) @ Las Vegas Raiders
I told you I liked this game and the Bengals’ passing attack. Higgins is just too cheap for his role and game environment. He’s received at least five targets in every game this season with two above 10. He hasn’t gone over 100 yards and only has two touchdowns on the season, but he’s garnered eight red-zone looks.
Top Tournament Play
Emmanuel Sanders ($18) vs. Indianapolis Colts
Sanders is coming off a two-target game. Three games ago, he bricked on four targets. Recency bias is a helluva drug. The Bills will likely pass a ton in this game, especially since the Colts boast one of the top rush defenses in the league. Most will pair Allen with Diggs, but Sanders is just as likely to go off. Granted, he hasn’t in a while, and the most targets he’s received in a game is only eight. Sanders does have two games with two touchdowns.
Tight End
Top Play
Travis Kelce ($30) vs. Dallas Cowboys
This game has the highest total on the slate, and Dallas is 24th in DVOA against tight ends. Keep It Simple Stupid.
Top Value
Tyler Conklin ($15) vs. Green Bay Packers
Conklin scored two touchdowns last game! That’s not why I’m writing him up, though, although it’s always better when a player scores a touchdown than not. Over the last four games, Conklin has five, seven, seven, and five targets, so he’s been an important and consistent part of the offense. He’s received five red-zone targets over that span. The Packers are 23rd in DVOA against tight ends this season. With the focus on Cook, Jefferson, and Thielen, Conklin should have opportunities to produce.
Top Tournament Play
Darren Waller ($25) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
As with most recommendations, it comes down to projected ownership. As of now, I think Waller goes under the radar since most will go up to Kelce, and Kittle is also priced at $25 with Andrews $4 cheaper. In addition, it’s not like Waller has been lighting it up. He’s only gone over 10 Yahoo points in three games this season and has scored only two touchdowns. That said, I do like this game environment a lot and, if I think the Bengals will put up points, the Raiders will have to respond. Waller is still one of Carr’s favorite targets, and he can go bonkers on any given Sunday. The Bengals are 20th in DVOA against tight ends.
Defense
Top Play
Cleveland Browns ($16) vs. Detroit Lions
Have you seen Jared Goff play? The Browns are third in adjusted sack rate and eighth in coverage, according to PFF. They are favored by 11 points, and the Lions don’t turtle up when behind, so there should plenty of opportunities for turnovers and sacks. On the season, Cleveland has racked up 30 sacks, two fumble recoveries, five interceptions, and one touchdown. They have held five opponents to fewer than 20 points. Detroit is 25th in pass blocking, and Goff has thrown six interceptions while taking 26 sacks.
Top Value
Baltimore Ravens ($12) @ Chicago Bears
The Ravens don’t grade out particularly well in any area, but they’ve scored double-digit Yahoo points in two games and face a rookie quarterback. They’ve racked up 19 sacks, two fumble recoveries, and five interceptions on the season. Justin Fields has thrown eight interceptions and taken 29 sacks.
Tournament Play
New York Jets ($12) @ Miami Dolphins
I like the Dolphins passing attack a lot this weekend. That said, more dropbacks provide more opportunities for sacks, fumbles, and interceptions. The Jets rate poorly in almost every category, but they are at home. Weird things happen in football.
