Week 11 is shaping up to be an exciting slate of games, with five games trending toward the 50-point total mark. Sunday should be action-packed with high-powered offenses squaring off in ideal situations.
Check out a few games to target in Week 11, and a few you might want to proceed with caution.
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Games to Target
Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs
With a 56-point total, Sunday’s matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Kansas City Chiefs should not disappoint, featuring two of the more potent offenses in the league squaring off in the late afternoon.
The Cowboys offense, led by quarterback Dak Prescott, is the 11th fastest in the league, calling a play every 25.5 seconds (per RotoViz). Prescott benefits from a high-powered receiving corps highlighted by wide receivers Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb but should also benefit from the return of Michael Gallup, who was targeted five times in his first game since Week 1. Expect the Cowboys to employ a pass-first approach, calling a slightly-skewed 57%/43% pass-to-run ratio, especially facing a Chiefs defense ranked 30th in DVOA (per Football Outsiders). Kansas City opened as a 7.5-point favorite, which might signal an uptick in passing production against a weak offense.
Patrick Mahomes leads a high-powered Kansas City Chiefs offense that ranks fourth in pace, calling a play every 24.8 seconds. With the benefit of a stacked receiving corps featuring Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, the Chiefs run an extremely pass-heavy play-calling ratio. However, the matchup might prove to be difficult for the Chiefs, facing a Cowboys defense ranked fourth in DVOA. Keep an eye on news toward the end of the week, with the potential of running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire returning to action after spending time on the IR with a knee injury.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Both Cardinals and Seahawks squads look to bounce back after disappointing losses in Week 10. With a game total of 49.5-points, this NFC West matchup looks to be a high-scoring affair, featuring two of the top offenses in the league.
Arizona, coming off a 34-10 loss to the Carolina Panthers, rank 11th in offense (per PFF). Questions still surround the status of star quarterback Kyler Murray, who has missed the previous two games with an ankle injury. With Murray under center for the first eight weeks of the season, the Cardinals methodically moved the ball down the field, calling a play every 27.1 seconds, as part of a more balanced 54%/46% pass-to-run ratio. Arizona also seems to be missing DeAndre Hopkins, the team leader in target share, seeing 20% of the Cardinals’ looks because of a hamstring injury. If Hopkins misses a third straight game, look for an uptick in production for Christian Kirk and A.J. Green, who combined for a 42% target share in Weeks 9-10. According to Football Outsiders, the Seahawks rank 21 in defensive DVOA—a likely ideal matchup for an Arizona Cardinals squad looking toward the postseason.
The Seattle Seahawks saw the return of quarterback Russell Wilson in a disappointing 17-0 loss to the Green Bay Packers in Week 10 and will likely need to use their high-speed offense to keep the foot on the pedal as 3.5-point favorites. The Seahawks rank seventh in pace, calling a play every 25.3 seconds, as part of a pass-heavy 59%/41% pass-to-run ratio, mostly partly because of condensed receiving corps featuring Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. Seattle ranks 15th in offense, per PFF and looks to have a more challenging matchup against a Cardinals defense ranked second in DVOA.
Proceed with Caution
Washington Football Team at Carolina Panthers
At 43.5-points, the Week 11 matchup between the Washington Football Team and Carolina Panthers is the lowest on the slate. Both Washington and Carolina rank toward the bottom in the league in pace (18th and 21st, respectively) and are among the worst-ranked offensively (24th and 30th).
Carolina, who ranks third in DVOA, should give quarterback Taylor Heinicke and the Washington offense problems, especially in the passing game. With Washington using a 59%/41% pass-to-run ratio may not equate to a lot of production facing a Panthers’ defense ranked second in pass DVOA.
The Panthers might seem energized with the return of quarterback Cam Newton, especially after a 34-10 win over the Arizona Cardinals. Newton and the offense look to have an ideal matchup against Washington, who ranks 27th in DVOA and looks to have issues stopping the pass, ranking 29th in pass DVOA, which could benefit DJ Moore, Robby Anderson and Christian McCaffrey.
Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns
Sunday’s matchup between the Lions and Browns looks to have blowout potential, with the Browns currently 10.5 points favorites. Cleveland faces a Detroit defense ranked 29th in DVOA and should have no issue moving the ball down the field, using a balanced 52%/48% pass-to-run play calling ratio. As heavy favorites, look for Cleveland to increase their 28.3 seconds per play cadence and should benefit if running back Nick Chubb is scheduled to return action, pending two negative COVID-19 tests.
Detroit will need to increase their up-tempo offense; currently, the fifth-fastest team in the league, calling a play every 25 seconds to match the 10th ranked Browns offense. With Jared Goff under center, the Lions use a pass-heavy 63%/37% pass-to-run play calling ratio and will likely increase the frequency of passing plays against a Browns’ defense ranked 26th in passing DVOA.
