Sunday features a five-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Stud
James Harden and Steph Curry are at the top of the Player Model. Harden has a slightly higher projection and is $600 on DraftKings cheaper, so I will side with Harden here, but I’d have no problems going with Curry as well. It comes down to projected ownership, roster construction, and personal preference.
Harden got off to a slow start this season, but he’s picked it up in the last two games. He has one triple-double and has produced 53.25 and 68.75 DraftKings points. The Thunder are eighth in offensive pace,16th in defensive efficiency, and boost the FPPM to point guards by 1.97%.
Value
Cameron Payne backs up Chris Paul, so he only plays around 20 minutes per game. That said, over the last four games, the usage rate has been 27.6%, 36.6%, 24.7%, and 30%. He’s produced 7.75, 35.5, 13.75, and 20 DraftKings points. The Rockets are second in offensive pace while Phoenix is fifth, so there should be plenty of possessions in this one. The Suns are favored by 8.5 points, so there’s a chance that Payne gets some extra playing time.
Fast Break
Nah’Shon Hyland ($3,400) looks to have settled into a role. He’s played 22 and 21 minutes over the last two games, scored double-figures, and dished out four assists in each contest. The usage rate has been 23%. Hyland has gone for 22.25 and 30 DraftKings points. On the season, he’s scored at least 10 DraftKings points in all but one game and gone over 20 in four.
Shooting Guard
Stud
I’m not crazy about the option up top at the position, so Zach LaVine it is. The matchup isn’t great as the Clippers are second in defensive efficiency, but they do boost the FPPM to shooting guards by 6.11%. In addition, LaVine does boast a 30% usage rate on the season. He got off to a blistering start this season, producing 51, 52.25, and 40 DraftKings points. Since then, he’s been in the 30 to 40 range, but he’s explosive and can pop off on any given day. He only has one game below 30 DraftKings points.
Value
Gary Payton II played fewer than 10 minutes in five of the first six games. Over the last six games, he’s received at least 15 minutes in each contest with two above 20. He’s scored double-digit DraftKings points in all of those games with four above 20 and a high of 31.5. The Hornets are second in offensive pace and 27th in defensive efficiency, so this should be one of the juicier environments for fantasy goodies today.
Fast Break
Jordan Poole has a +1.64 Plus/Minus on the season and has exceeded point expectations 50% of the time. Over the last six games, he’s gone for at least 20 DraftKings in every contest with four above 30 and a high of 47.25, which happened to be against the Hornets. As mentioned in the Payton section, both of these teams play fast, so there should be plenty of possessions.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant has the highest projection by a wide margin at the position. The Thunder play at the eighth-fastest pace and boost the FPPM to power forwards by a league-high 15.9%. There is some risk as to playing time since the Nets are favored by nine points. In two blowouts this season, Durant played 20 and 27 minutes, contributing 37.25 and 32.75 DraftKings points. Outside of the opening game in which he scored 29.75 DraftKings points, Durant has gone for at least 45 in every other game with a high of 73.75.
Value
Jeff Green has started the last three games for Michael Porter Jr. The production hasn’t been eye-opening, but he did go for 15.5, 17.5, and 27 DraftKings points. He’s scored in double-digits each game. His problem is that he doesn’t contribute much outside of points. That said, he’s played 32, 28, and 34 minutes and minutes are half the battle. Yo, Joe!
Fast Break
Miles Bridges has been a beast this season, averaging a +1.17 Plus/Minus while exceeding point expectations 60% of the time. He’s produced at least 30 DraftKings points in all but one game this season with eight above 40 and a high of 56.75. That 56.75-game came against the Warriors, which is today’s matchup. Yummy.
Power Forward
Stud
Durant is the highest-priced and projected player at the position, but I went over him in the small forward section. DeMar DeRozan is the second-highest projected player, but he’s priced at $8,400, and the matchup isn’t great for him. So, I will go with Draymond Green. The ceiling may not be high (only two games above 40), but the floor is there.
Green has produced at least 24 DraftKings points in every contest this season with eight above 30. He’s a low-usage player, so the points will rarely be there (only three games in double figures), but he contributes in every statistical category, and this game environment is the best one on the slate.
Value
Larry Nance Jr. is $200 above the minimum on Draftings, and he’s averaged a +2.29 Plus/Minus and exceeded point expectations 80% of the time. The playing time has been inconsistent this season as he received at least 20 minutes in only two of the first 11 games. Over the last two games, though, he’s played 27 and 20 minutes and produced 22.75 and 18.5 DraftKings points.
Fast Break
Daniel Theis has received 27, 32, 22, and 30 minutes of playing time. He’s contributed 23, 46.75, 19.75, and 32 DraftKings points. Phoenix plays at the fifth-fastest pace while Houston is second. This should also be a good environment for fantasy goodies.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic is the highest-priced player on the slate, and really the only option at center if paying up. He’s triple-doubled in his last two games, which translated to 66.75 and 70.25 DraftKings points. On the season, he’s scored at least 40 DraftKings points in every contest with six above 50 and a high of 70. As long as he doesn’t WWE anyone, he should score the most raw points on the slate.
Value
LaMarcus Aldridge has been really good for the Nets this season. He has averaged a +4.37 Plus/Minus and exceeded point expectations 60% of the time. While he only plays around 22 minutes per game, he’s produced at least 20 DraftKings points in eight games with four above 30. The usage rate is in the mid-to-high 20% range when he’s on the floor.
Fast Break
Frank Kaminsky plays close to 28 minutes in games that Deandre Ayton misses, with JaVale McGee getting around 20. McGee is pretty much locked into 20 minutes, so Kaminsky’s minutes are secure. Ayton is doubtful again for today and, in those games that he’s missed, Kaminsky has put up 35.25, 32, 19.75, 46.75, and 23 DraftKings points. Houston boosts the FPPM to centers by 8.6%.
