Yahooooo! There are 11 games on the Yahoo main slate that begin at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday. The Bears, Bengals, Giants, and Texans are on bye.
This piece highlights my top overall plays, values, and best tournament plays for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) at each position while using our Player Models. I will specifically be referencing the Bales Model.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Quarterbacks
Top Play
Tom Brady ($40) @ Washington Football Team
The top three projected quarterbacks, according to the Player Model, are all priced at $40. Give me Tom Brady, as the Bucs lead the league in passing rate and face a Football Team that is 31st in rush defense DVOA. In addition, they are 10th in rush defense DVOA, so that should make the path of least resistance have neon lights shining, “This way!” Brady has the best matchup according to opponent Plus/Minus at +6.6.
Top Value
Taylor Heinicke ($23) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Vegas Dashboard has this game with a healthy 51.5 points. It’s only the fourth-highest total, but that could possibly suppress ownership. Maybe? The Bucs are implied for 30.5 points, so the Football Team will have to be aggressive to keep pace. The Bucs are fourth in rush defense DVOA, so both teams should lean more towards the pass in this one, which could mean more possessions for both.
Top Tournament Play
Carson Wentz ($28) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jonathan Taylor will likely be one of the highest-rostered players. And for good reason, because the Jaguars stink (shhh, don’t tell the Bills), and the Colts are favored by 10.5 points at home. What if the scoring comes via the air? The Jags are 32nd in both pass defense DVOA and adjusted sack rate (shhh, don’t tell the Bills). Wentz should be low-rostered, and he would provide direct leverage from Taylor rosters.
Running Backs
Top Play
Dalvin Cook ($32)/Alexander Mattison ($16) @ Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are dead-last in rush defense DVOA. The Vikings run 41% of the time, which is a far cry from the 50% rate of the Saints, but it’s still middle of the pack. Here’s the thing, though. If Mike Zimmer has his way, he would prefer to ground and pound while playing good defense. The Chargers offense could have something to say about that, but even if the game opens up, that should lead to plenty of red-zone opportunities. I included Mattison into the mix because of some uncertainty regarding Cook’s off-the-field matters. If Cook is unable to play, then Mattison would slide right in, and he’s proven more than capable.
Top Value
JD McKissic ($15) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
There should be passing in this one—lots of passing. Since the Football Team will likely be chasing points in this one, that should give 60% of the snaps to McKissic, which is how it’s gone in two of the last three games. Those games were losses to the Chiefs and Packers. Over the last games, McKissic has received eight, six, and 10 targets which he’s translated to 13.3, 7.6, and 15 Yahoo points.
Top Tournament Play
Aaron Jones ($34) vs. Seattle Seahawks
Jones hasn’t been great this season, as he has four games with fewer than 10 Yahoo points, and the volume has been all over the map. He has two games with fewer than 10 carries and hasn’t received 20 in any game. He has a high of 11 targets in a game but five games with fewer than five. The involvement of AJ Dillion is also a concern. That said, he has a ceiling of 38.5 Yahoo points and can take one to the house on any given play. Aaron Rodgers could return for this one, which could soften up the box for him. The ownership should be low, which makes him a good tournament option.
Wide Receiver
Top Play
Chris Godwin ($27) @ Washington Football Team
Godwin didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday with a foot issue, so that’s important to monitor. If he’s good to go, then this is a great spot for him, especially since Antonio Brown is unlikely to play. I went over in the Brady section above why this is a great matchup for the Bucs passing game. With Brown out the last two games, Godwin has received 12 and 11 targets while producing eight catches for 111 yards and a touchdown in one and eight catches for 140 yards and a touchdown in the other.
Top Value
Tyler Lockett ($20) @ Green Bay Packers
Both Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers could be back for this one. The Vegas Dashboard has the total at 49, with the Packers implied for 26.3 points and the Seahawks at 22.8. Lockett is as inconsistent as they come. He can catch two passes on three targets for 12 yards or haul in eight of 11 targets for 178 yards and a touchdown. There’s a ton of variance, but the upside is too much for the price tag.
Top Tournament Play
Terry McLaurin ($22) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I’m not sure where the projected ownership will land on McLaurin, but right now, I see both Heinicke and McLaurin way down the list. If that maintains, then I love McLaurin. The price is a good one, and I went over why this game environment could be a juicy one. McLaurin is the alpha for the Football Team and has received double-digit targets in four games this season, with three games hauling in over 100 yards.
Tight End
Top Play
Kyle Pitts ($21) @ Dallas Cowboys
This game has the highest total on the slate at 55, so points are going to be scored. With no Calvin Ridley, Pitts is the No. 1 target. It just so happens to be that Dallas is dead-last in DVOA against tight ends.
Top Value
Rickey Seals-Jones ($11) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
There should be plenty of passing from the Football Team in this one. Heinicke has attempted 39, 37, 39, and 41 passes in the last four games. Over 40 attempts are within the range of outcomes. Seals-Jones hasn’t been great, as he has four, seven, six, and eight targets over the last four games. He has one touchdown and has hauled in 12, 51, 58, and 41 yards. He does have 10 red-zone looks over that span, though.
Top Tournament Play
Hayden Hurst ($10) @ Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is dead-last in DVOA against tight ends. That’s why Pitts is listed as the top option. The Falcons run plenty of two-tight end sets, and Hurst has played in the range of 40% to 60% of the snaps. He only has 25 targets on the season, but he does have five red-zone looks. If Hurst scores the touchdowns, then that would provide direct leverage to Pitts rosters, who should be popular.
Defense
Top Play
Pittsburgh Steelers ($16) vs. Detroit Lions
Have you seen Jared Goff play? The Steelers are favored by 8.5 points with an implied total of 25.5 points. In addition, the Steelers are ninth in rush defense DVOA, so the Lions offense will tilt towards the air. That should provide more opportunities for sacks and turnovers. Pittsburgh is fifth in pass rush according to PFF, while Detroit is 25th in pass blocking.
Top Value
Cleveland Browns ($13) @ New England Patriots
I don’t like the cheap defenses this week, so the Browns it is. They are fifth in rush defense DVOA and fourth in adjusted sack rate. Mac Jones has shown to be more than capable, but he’s taken 17 sacks and thrown seven interceptions this season. Granted, he’s only thrown one in the last three games.
Tournament Play
Minnesota Vikings ($16) @ Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers should be very popular, as the Vegas Dashboard has this game with a total of 53, and the Chargers implied for 28.3 points. That said, the Vikings are third in pass defense DVOA and third in adjusted sack rate. If they shut down the Chargers and put up points, they will likely be low-owned and provide direct leverage against all the Chargers stacks.
