In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Top Running Backs in the FantasyLabs Models
There are three running backs atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models
Here’s where they place within our Week 9 Fantasy Rankings (as of Friday):
- Austin Ekeler (3rd)
- Ezekiel Elliot (5th)
- Myles Gaskin (13th)
We’ll discuss why these three are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other backs who could help you take down a tournament.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Monday
- Wide Receivers on Wednesday
- Tight Ends on Thursday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel): Dallas Cowboys (-10) vs. Denver Broncos
On a slate with very few clearly great plays at running back, Zeke stands out in a big way this week. He leads four of our DraftKings Models this week (including the Cash Game Model). He has a 93% Bargain Rating on DraftKings this week. Despite his relative expense on FanDuel, he leads three of our models there as well. Such is the extent of Elliott’s dominance, at least on paper, this week.
Zeke is not without his own question marks. Namely, the emerging role of Tony Pollard. Elliot is no longer a workhorse, handling just over 60% of the running back carries and targets in Dallas. He still sees the bulk of the goal-line work for the Cowboys, though, handling 86% of the touches inside the five-yard line. (One of the great things about our models is the ability to see opportunities inside the five or 10-yard lines). In this situation, it paints a stark picture. Zeke is only handling 63% of the red zone work, but that’s misleading when he gets most of the true scoring position chances.
However, the Cowboys have accounted for that by pivoting to a more run-focused attack this season. They’ve thrown the ball only 55% of the time this season, 25th in the league. In 2020, they ranked 12th, throwing it more than 61% of the time. Their pass rate is even lower if they remove their lone loss of the season (against extreme pass funnel Tampa Bay, no less). Since then, they’ve thrown the ball on only 50% of their plays.
All of this adds up to Zeke seeing about the same volume he did last season, with just over 20 opportunities per game. He’s been more efficient with those chances than at any point since his rookie season — averaging 4.8 yards per carry.
We can project an increase to both volume and opportunity this week against the Broncos. From the opportunity side, the Cowboys are 10-point favorites. In Dallas’s double-digit wins this year, Zeke averages 22 opportunities per game. On the efficiency side, Denver ranks 27th in DVOA against the run and 23rd in adjusted line yards.
While he’s not the volume and efficiency monster he once was, Elliot is still the strongest play of the slate. He leads both sites in Pts/Sal this week.
Austin Ekeler ($7,900 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) at Philadelphia Eagles (50 total)
Ekeler is the only back other than Elliott to lead one of our DraftKings models this week. Our projections have him just ahead of Elliot in raw points, but not enough to account for the $900 increase in salary.
Like Zeke, Ekeler isn’t a true workhorse back. With Derrick Henry done for the year, there very well might not be any left this season. What Ekeler lacks in total volume, he makes up for in pass game work, though. A target is worth about 2.7 times as much (on average, with individual player variations) as a rush. If we convert Ekelers targets to rushes, he’s a 28-carry-per-game back. (For context, Elliot would be a hair under 27 using the same math).
It helps that Ekeler is playing in one of the better game environments on the slate too. This is one of only two games with at least a 50 point Vegas total at the time of writing. Backs who fit Ekeler’s profile — at least 10 carries and five targets per game — have smashed when playing in games with 50+ point totals, per our Trends tool:
While certainly cash game viable, Ekeler stands out for tournaments. He has the highest Projected Ceiling among running backs but trails Elliott in Ownership Projection. This is a perfect example of “paying up to be contrarian.” If using Ekeler over Elliot, we’re “selling” Pts/Sal, but “buying” ceiling and reduced ownership. This explains why he ranks so highly in our new Minimalist Tournament Model.
Keep your Ekeler exposure to DraftKings, though. Not only is he a better bargain, but his role works better there. Targets aren’t as valuable (relatively) on FanDuel with their half-point PPR scoring.
Myles Gaskin ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel): Miami Dolphins(-5.5) vs. Houston Texans (46 total)
Gaskin is the only non-Elliott back to lead a FanDuel model, where he leads the Cash Game and Ryan Hodge Models. He’s a huge Bargain on FanDuel, with a 93% Bargain score.
Gaskin is a bit scary for cash games, though. His usage and production have been all over the place as of late. Over the last four weeks, he has had two games over 15 FanDuel points and two games at seven or less. On the year, he’s averaging nine rushes and four targets per game.
We could reasonably expect Gaskin to see more work this week, though. The Dolphins are the biggest favorites they’ve been all year, which generally bodes well for running backs. It’s hard to say specifically how the Dolphins will play if they do control this game though, they’ve only been favored twice this year and lost both games.
Even if the volume isn’t hugely improved, it’s a great matchup for Gaskin. Houston ranks 31st against the rush in DVOA and dead-last in adjusted line yards. He should be able to pile up some easy yards in this one, especially if Miami is playing with a lead.
Gaskin leads all backs on FanDuel in Projected Plus/Minus this week. As a reminder, that means he’s expected to exceed average scoring at his salary by more than any other player. He’s also shown us some ceiling this year, with a 26.9 point performance. Gaskin is a solid value for all contest types.
Other Running Backs With Week Winning Upside
Dalvin Cook ($7,700 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel): Minnesota Vikings (+6) at Baltimore Ravens (49.5 total)
Cook might be the closest thing we have left to a workhorse back. He has accounted for a slate-leading 76% of the Vikings’ rushing yards (when healthy) on the season, as well as four targets per game. While it’s not the easiest matchup, Baltimore’s defense is average at best.
We haven’t had a true slate-breaker from Cook yet this season, but it’s always in his range of outcomes. He’s a better play on DraftKings, where he has a 90% Bargain Rating and the third-highest Ceiling Projection of the week.
Alvin Kamara ($8,200 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel): New Orleans Saints (-6.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (42 total)
Kamara leads all backs on the Week 9 slate, with his snap percentage at 73.5% on the year. While the Saints traded for old friend Mark Ingram to help spell Kamara, Kamara was on the field for 77% of the snaps in Ingrams’ debut with the team. Ingrams snap share could go up a bit as he reacclimates to the offense, but Kamara’s role is fine.
Also, the Saints are favored in this one, which has historically benefited him:
Kamara Favorite/Underdog splits, per our Trends too.
Nick Chubb ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel): Cleveland Browns (+2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (47 total)
Unfortunately, Chubb didn’t see much of an increase in his pass-game role with Kareem Hunt on the sideline. He drew only one of the Browns’ five targets to running backs. That means he’ll have to get it done on the ground to post a big score this week. However, no back is more capable than Chubb to do just that. He leads the league in Yards after Contact per attempt at 3.0. He’s not the best play on paper, but the ceiling is always there, thanks to his big play ability.
Aaron Jones ($7,500 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel): Green Bay Packers (+7.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (48 total)
Aaron Jones is my favorite running back play of the week. He also leads our new Minimalist Tournament model. That model combined Ceiling and Ownership Projections to identify lower-owned players who can help you take down a slate.
Jones requires a bit of guesswork this week with Aaron Rodgers sidelined. Rodgers hasn’t missed a game since 2017, Jones’ rookie season. It’s hard to say for sure, but I’m expecting more rushing for the Packers, as well as more easy throws to Jones. With Jordan Love making his first career start, it would make sense to keep the pressure off of him. So long as this game doesn’t get away from the Packers, expect a healthy dose of Jones against the Chiefs’ 31st-ranked overall defense.
Value Running Backs
Zack Moss ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-14.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (48.5 total)
Moss is in a near 50/50 timeshare with Devin Singletary this season. However, this game sets up nicely for Moss. He’s been the far better option when the Bills are favored by at least a touchdown over the past two seasons:
Bills running backs as 7-point or more favorites, per our Trends tool.
Elijah Mitchell ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel): San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (46 total)
Mitchell is way too cheap on DraftKings for a running back coming off of consecutive 18-carry games (regardless of the production). The production has been great, too, with Mitchell going over 100 yards in both of those contests. Mitchell has gone over 100 yards in three of his five games played this season, including against the top-rated Colts rush defense two weeks ago. Which I bring up due to the matchup in Week 9 — Arizona ranks seventh against the rush.
It’s tough to trust Mitchell given his lack of pass-game role (0 targets the last two weeks). However, his chances of a touchdown and/or the 100-yard bonus are among the highest on the slate. He’s appropriately priced on FanDuel, but on DraftKings, he’s a steal.
