Yahooooo! There are 11 games on the Yahoo main slate that begin at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday. The Lions, Seahawks, Buccaneers, and Football Team are on bye.
This piece highlights my top overall plays, values, and best tournament plays for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) at each position while using our Player Models. I will specifically be referencing the Bales Model.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Quarterbacks
Top Play
Tua Tagovailoa ($26) vs. Houston Texans
The Texans are 31st in rush defense DVOA, so the path of least resistance is on the ground. There’s some risk that the Dolphins just ground and pound the Texans to death and rely on their defense. Here’s the thing, though. Miami is dead-last in rushing attempts, and they are second in pass rate. They are also 25th in run blocking, according to PFF, and their defense hasn’t been great, 26th in pass-defense DVOA.
Since returning to action three games ago, Tua has attempted 39, 40, and 47 passes while chipping in four, four, and three rushes. That’s translated to 16.2, 28.54, and 22.36 DraftKings points and a Plus/Minus of +2.22, +13.13, and +7.13.
Tua owns a Bargain rating of 62%, and the opponent Plus/Minus is +3.8.
Top Value
Jordan Love ($20) @ Kansas City
With Aaron Rodgers unable to play, Love will get the start in Kansas City. There’s a ton of unknown since this will be his first NFL start, and he’s played a total of 18 snaps in his career. That said, he’s been in the league for two years, so this is not like a rookie being thrown to the wolves. Kansas City is a tough place to play, but the run game going up against the 29th rush defense DVOA unit should help. That should make the play-action game easier and provide cleaner windows in the passing game.
There is also the rushing ability of Love. In college, he rushed 170 times for 403 yards and nine touchdowns. He’s priced at the minimum, and the opponent Plus/Minus is the highest on the slate at +6.6.
Top Tournament Play
Joe Burrow ($33) vs. Cleveland Browns
I like Burrow a lot this weekend, so I’m not too sure how good of a tournament play he will be since the projected ownership could be high. That said, there’s a chance he goes slightly overlooked due to the price. Lamar is $3 more expensive, while Hurts is $3 lower. I think most will go in either of those two directions.
So, why do I like Burrow so much?
For starters, the kid gloves are off for him. Early in the season, the Bengals ran a very conservative, run-oriented offense. Burrow attempted 27, 30, and 18 passes. Over the last five games, he’s thrown at least 30 passes in four of those games. He threw 29 times in the game he missed, and that was because the game was a blowout. Burrow has scored at least 20 DraftKings points in all of those games, and he’s thrown for at least two touchdowns in every game this season.
It’s the matchup that really entices me, though. The Browns are third in rush-defense DVOA while being 25th in pass defense DVOA.
Running Backs
Top Play
Ezekiel Elliot ($29) vs. Denver Broncos
The Broncos are in shambles, having lost four of their last five games, and they just traded away Von Miller. They are 27th in rush defense DVOA and now get to face the best run-blocking unit, according to PFF.
Elliot is coming off his two worst games of the season, 9.3 and 15.4 DraftKings points, but prior to that, he went for at least 20 in three straight games. He has two games with at least 20 carries and 100 yards and has scored five touchdowns.
The Vegas Dashboard has the Cowboys implied for a robust 29.75 points while being favored by 10 points. The game script should be a good one, and Elliot should do damage. He is the highest projected running back according to our Player Models.
Top Value
Devontae Booker ($15) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Saquan Barkley is out… again. So, Booker will be the lead back for the Giants. He garnered 93% of the snaps last week, while Elijhaa Penny was a distance second with 12%. Over the last four games, he’s had double-digit carries in every game and scored two touchdowns. He’s rushed for 42, 41, 51, and 60 yards, but it’s the passing game involvement that is most enticing. He’s received four, four, three, and six targets. Booker has also been the guy in the red zone as he has 13 rushes and three targets.
At $15, he has a Bargain rating of 98%.
Top Tournament Play
Joe Mixon ($25) vs. Cleveland Browns
This all depends on the ownership for Burrow and the Bengals’ passing game. I’m assuming most will see the same data that I am, so they will lean towards the passing game in this one. If so, then Mixon provides direct leverage.
He has the seventh-highest projection in the Player Model, and he’s gone for at least 20 DraftKings points in three games this season. He’s also scored in the single digits twice and hasn’t received 20 carries or gone over 100 yards since Week 1.
That said, he’s received five and six targets in two of the last three games, has 12 rushes and four targets in the red zone on the season.
Wide Receiver
Top Play
Tyreek Hill ($30) vs. Green Bay Packers
Defenses have taken away the big play from the Chiefs’ offense, and Hill has been inconsistent on the season. He has three games with fewer than 10 DraftKings points. That said, he has a 31.6 and a 42.1 DraftKings points games on the resume, so he can pop off on any given Sunday. In addition, he is still getting peppered with targets: 18, nine, 12, 13, and 12 over the last five games.
Despite the struggles of the Chiefs’ offense and the lowered ceiling, they are still implied for 27.75 points this weekend, and Hill is the main target in the passing game.
Top Value
DeVante Parker ($18) vs. Houston Texans
I went over some of the risks in the Tua section above. If the Dolphins maintain their pass-happy ways, then Parker should feast. In his first game back from injury, Parker caught eight of 11 targets for 85 yards. The best cornerback for the Texans defends the slot, where Jaylen Waddle is. Parker has a healthy aDOT of 11.9 on the season and should have plenty of opportunities to produce fantasy goodies in this one.
Top Tournament Play
Marquise Brown ($23) vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are much improved this season on defense as they are third in pass-defense DVOA after being 14th last season. In addition, Keenan Allen is also priced at $23 while Amari Cooper is $1 cheaper, so the rostership should be low for Brown.
That said, he has three games with double-digit targets and is coming off a 14-target game against the Bengals. He’s scored six touchdowns on the season and has six red-zone targets. Brown has exceeded points expectations 71% of the time this season.
Defending the Ravens’ offensive attack is difficult because of the rushing prowess of Lamar Jackson. That provides plenty of seams for receivers to run through in the secondary.
Tight End
Top Play
Darren Waller ($23) @ New York Giants
Waller missed the last game but should be good to go for this one. Since his 19-target game in the opener, he’s received seven, seven, seven, eight, and five targets. With Henry Ruggs no longer on the team, the target number should bump up for Waller. The Giants are 14th in DVOA against tight ends.
Top Value
Albert Okwuegbunam ($10) @ Dallas Cowboys
Noah Fant is out, so Okwuegbunam will likely get the start. Last week, he caught all three of his targets for 34 yards. On the season, he has 12 catches on 13 targets for 91 yards and a touchdown. Okwuegbunam runs a 4.49 40-yard dash, and the Cowboys are dead-last in DVOA against tight ends.
Top Tournament Play
Mike Gesicki ($22) vs. Houston Texans
It all comes down to projected ownership, but I think Gesicki gets overlooked. There are plenty of cheap options at tight end this week, and both Waller and Andrews are priced $1 more. Gesicki has one game with over 10 targets and one game with over 100 yards. He’s scored two touchdowns on the season and underwhelmed for most of it. He’s coming off a three-catch, 48-yard performance. The matchup is fantastic, though, as the Texans are 31st in DVOA against tight ends.
Defense
Top Play
Buffalo Bills ($22) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
The Bills are first in pass defense DVOA and 10th in adjusted sack rate. They have 16 sacks, five fumble recoveries, 11 interceptions, and one touchdown on the season. Trevor Lawrence has thrown nine interceptions and taken 11 sacks. The Bills are favored by 14.5 points per the Vegas Dashboard, so there should be plenty of dropbacks for Lawrence, which means more opportunities for fantasy goodies.
Top Value
San Francisco 49ers ($10) vs. Arizona Cardinals
These division rivals know each other very well. Murray went bonkers in his first two career matchups, putting up 26.7 and 27.3 DraftKings points. In the two most recent meetings, though, he’s gone for 16.38 and 13.66. Murray is also a little banged up and hasn’t been running as much. The 49ers have 16 sacks, three fumble recoveries, two interceptions, and one touchdown on the season.
Tournament Play
Kansas City Chiefs ($11) vs. Green Bay Packers
The range of outcomes is wide for this game. The Packers could just ground and pound the Chiefs into submission. Jordan Love could ball out. We just don’t know because we’ve never seen him in action. Or the Chiefs’ offense could get back on track, forcing Love out of his comfort zone. The Kansas City crowd to then get to him, and turnovers galore could appear. Shrug. That’s why this is a tournament play.
