In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models
There are three wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models.
Here’s where they place within our Week 9 Fantasy Rankings (as of Tuesday evening):
- Tyreek Hill (3rd)
- Stefon Diggs (4th)
- Hunter Renfrow (23rd)
We’ll discuss why these three are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other wide receivers in potential high-scoring games.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Tuesday
- Tight Ends on Thursday
- Running Backs on Friday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Wide Receivers
Stefon Diggs ($7,700 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-14.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars(48.5 total)
With the Bills as large favorites this week, there are concerns about their overall passing volume against the Jaguars. However, the Jags are a major pass funnel, featuring an above-average run defense and the league’s worst passing defense. This means that it’s more likely that early production, at the very least, comes through the air. More often than not for Buffalo, that means Stefon Diggs.
Diggs averages over nine targets per game this season, and we can obviously expect efficiency to rise in this matchup. He’s underperformed a bit, with his 7.7 yards per target being his lowest since 2018 (and second-lowest of his career). Diggs is still just 27 years old, though, so I’m chalking it up more to variance than a slip in his abilities.
He’s also outright cheaper on FanDuel than he is on DraftKings, which is a rarity. I tried to make a Trend to figure out how receivers (or any players) performed in that situation, but unfortunately, the tool let me down, for perhaps the first time ever. However, here’s how premier wideouts (priced over $7,000) have done with a Bargain Rating of 98% or better:
While not super impressive, they do over-perform salary-based expectations by a bit. Diggs is implied for 13.46 FanDuel points, so this trend aligns nicely with our Median Projection of around 14 on Diggs. That puts him as a top-five projected points-per-dollar FanDuel receiver this week.
Diggs, of course, has upside for much more. His Ceiling Projection is second among FanDuel wideouts, but he’s cheaper than four other players. That’s why he leads two of our models, including the Cash Game Model on FanDuel this week.
Tyreek Hill ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) vs. Green Bay Packers (48.5 total)
Tyreek is our model’s unquestioned favorite wideout this week, leading four DraftKings models (including the Cash Game) and two on FanDuel. For a long time, Hill was never really in cash game consideration. He was seemingly equally likely to score four or 40 points on a weekly basis, but it was hard to predict which. That’s changed a bit this year though, let’s find out why.
First, his overall volume is up (largely due to the Chief’s struggles this season.) Last year he averaged nine targets per game, which was a career-best. This season, that number is 11.25. Over the last five weeks, it’s increased even more, up to 12.8. Throughout his career, every Hill target has been worth roughly 2.1 DraftKings points. An extra two or three targets for Tyreek is huge.
Even more important is how those targets have come. “the Cheetah” is seeing a career-low 9.9 average depth-of-target (aDOT) this season. His prior low was a full three yards deeper, at 12.9. It’s hard to quantify, but this doesn’t appear to be from a lack of downfield work. Rather, those extra few targets coming as schemed look close to the line of scrimmage. That leaves Hill’s legendary ceiling intact but gives him a much better floor. Especially on full-PPR DraftKings, where a few easy catches a game makes a big difference.
Of course, Aaron Rodgers being out for the Packers throws a bit of a wrench in the operation. The Chiefs reopened as 7.5 point favorites following the news, but that could vary throughout the week. Follow our Vegas tab for up-to-date lines. Overall passing volume for the Chiefs is likely to be lower than it would’ve been had Rodgers been healthy.
Either way, Hill is our best-projected wideout on either site this week. The Chiefs will still have to score, as their defense will likely allow even the Jordan Love-led packers to put up some points. Look to Hill across all sites and game types this week.
Hunter Renfrow ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel): Las Vegas Raiders (-3) at New York Giants (46.5 total)
The problem with the Raiders passing attack (for DFS) this season has been the wide distribution of targets. Five players have seen at least 10% of the team’s pass attempts, with nobody going over Darren Waller’s 23.3 % mark. Of course, that will all be changing now, with the release of Henry Ruggs, and his 15% or so of targets gone.
Renfrow was already the leader (among receivers) in targets for Vegas. He has a short-area role, with a 6.69 aDOT. To put that in perspective, 27 tight ends have at least 10 targets and a deeper aDOT. That’s fine for DraftKings, though, where Renfrow’s 75% catch rate is a bonus.
It’s also a solid environment for the Raiders passing attack in general. The Giants play fast (seventh-quickest pace in the league). With the Raiders favored — and implied for a healthy 25 points — a lot of volume could flow to a solid possession receiver like Renfrow.
It remains to be seen how much of Ruggs’ leftover volume will flow to Renfrow. I have my doubts since Ruggs was the polar opposite style of wideout. It could mean that Vegas uses somebody else in Ruggs’ downfield role, or it could mean that they abandon deep passes entirely. The latter scenario favors Renfrow.
Either way, Renfrow is a solid value on DraftKings. He’s scored double-digit points in all but one game this season. His Pts/Sal is tied for best on the slate. He also provides slightly more ceiling than usual with the loss of Ruggs, making him tournament-viable. Renfrow leads one of our models on DraftKings.
Other Wide Receivers With Week-Winning Upside
Davante Adams ($8,200 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel): Green Bay Packers (+1) at Kansas City Chiefs (54.5 total)
In the midst of writing this, news broke that Aaron Rodgers would miss the Week 9 contest for Green Bay. That obviously changes everything for Adams, but he could be a sneaky tournament play anyway. The Packers will almost surely fall behind at some point, so rookie Jordan Love will have to air it out eventually.
It’s hard to predict how Adams will do without Rodgers, who hasn’t missed a game since 2017. However, in the eight games Adams played without Rodgers then, he averaged only 16.32 DraftKings points. That was with Brett Hundley at quarterback, though, not former first-round pick Jordan Love.
Adams is risky this week, but the game environment and the Chiefs’ terrible defense are ideal. I like Adams for tournaments, where the lack of Rodgers will severely limit his ownership.
Note: Adams hasn’t cleared protocol yet and is currently projected as out in our models, but he’s expected to return on Thursday.
Ja’Marr Chase ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel), Tee Higgins ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel) and Tyler Boyd ($5,000 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) vs. Cleveland Browns (47 total)
It’s been hard to parse the Bengals receivers this year. All three are seeing between 22% and 26% of the targets when healthy, with Higgins as the leader. Until last week, Higgins had underwhelmed based on his role. Last week, he only saw six looks but turned them into four catches for 97 yards. This included a catch that saw him tackled around the three-yard line. That could’ve been worth an extra nine DraftKings points if the official scoring gave him an extra three yards.
On the other hand, Chase has lit the world on fire, ranking third in PPR points for receivers on the season. He trails only Hill and Cooper Kupp, despite having 20 fewer targets than either of them. The only thing keeping him from challenging for the overall WR1 status is a relative lack of volume.
Finally, Boyd has fulfilled his usual short-area role well this season. He’s averaging a solid 11.7 DraftKings points per contest. Notably, his best game was with Higgins out of the lineup, though.
This week sets up very nicely for the Bengals passing attack in general. Cleveland is the starkest pass funnel on the slate, ranking third against the rush but a lowly 25th against the pass in DVOA. Somebody, or somebodies, among this trio, is likely to have a big game.
Site-Specific Strategy
I prefer Chase on FanDuel, for a couple of reasons. First, he’s a great value there. He leads the Bengals receivers with a 96% Bargain Rating. Second, FanDuel scoring is half-PPR, meaning yardage and touchdowns are more important. Chase has more of both of those than Higgins and Boyd combined. Frequently, players are relatively more expensive on the site where their role is more valuable. When we get the opposite — like with Chase — we should pounce on it.
However, it’s a different story on DraftKings. Higgins is the best value and appears to have the most voluminous role (Week 8 being the exception). There’s also a strategy element here. Despite the Browns’ poor passing DVOA, they’ve allowed the seventh-fewest yards per pass attempt this season. That means they’re getting beat with short and medium-range throws, which is where Higgins excels.
While it’s hard to pick the correct player, “Bengals receiver” is very likely to end up posting a big score this week. My strategy is generally to play each of them where they’re cheapest, so I have exposure to whoever ends up being the correct option. We can probably ignore Boyd, whose ceiling is limited when Higgins is healthy. That leaves us with Chase on FanDuel and Higgins on DraftKings as the preferred plays.
Deebo Samuel ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): San Francisco 49ers (+2.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (46.5 total)
Deebo is one of four receivers seeing at least 30% of his team’s targets this season. This week, his Niners take on Arizona as slight underdogs. With Jimmy G back at the helm, that’s a good combination for Deebo. He’s scored at least 25 DraftKings points in four of the five games he’s played with Garropolo. It’s not an ideal matchup with the Cardinals’ number two ranked pass defense, but that might not matter for Samuel. He has our third-highest Median and fourth-highest Ceiling Projections on DraftKings this week.
Value Wide Receivers
Mecole Hardman ($3,900 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) vs. Green Bay Packers (48.5 total)
Hardman is tied with Renfrow for the best Pts/Sal of the week on DraftKings. He’s seen at least five targets in each of the past four games, averaging almost eight. With the Chiefs adjusting to a more conservative passing attack, they’ve leaned on Hardman a bit more than in the past.
A five-target floor against the Packers’ mediocre defense is a steal at only $3,900.
Bryan Edwards($4,100 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel): Las Vegas Raiders (-3) at New York Giants (46.5 total)
While Renfrow and Hardman are the preferred value plays in cash games, Edwards stands out for tournaments. He plays a similar role that Henry Ruggs once did, so if the Raiders are attacking downfield, it’s likely to be through Edwards. Most of the field will be on Renfrow this week (check out our Ownership Projections to see if I’m proven right), so there’s a lot of leverage to be had with Edwards.
It’s not a sure thing given the uncertainty of the situation, but it’s better to be first than right. This is our chance to do just that.
