There are only a few weeks of full-field golf tournaments left this calendar year, and this week at Mayakoba may be the best. We have a handful of top players set to tee it up in Mexico, with Justin Thomas leading the way. He has actually been passed it many betting markets by native Abraham Ancer, with defending champion Viktor Hovland also lurking.
The field is pretty solid from top to bottom this week, and as always, we have you covered throughout the Labs and Action platforms. Matt Vincenzi’s stats that matter article is always one of my favorite places to start my research as he couples that into some picks for the week.
Landon Silinsky also puts together his favorite cash game plays, which is a good starting point for a core group of players each week, especially for smaller field GPPs. Lastly, I use the Bales Model to match up and cross-check my own personal model each week as a guide to top plays and ownership.
I’ll use each of these tools as I put together my top large-field GPP plays this week, so let’s get right into them.
Top Tier
Justin Thomas $11,200 DraftKings
It appears that Abraham Ancer has taken over the top spot in many lineups as the high-priced play and is set to garner 25% or more ownership. The last time he got this much attention was a few weeks back at the Shriners, and while I’m not predicting to see that again, I just can’t go there for only a $500 discount from one of the top few players in the world.
JT has shown an ability over time to play these coastal courses, and he, to me, should be more of a resounding favorite than is being put up on the betting board. I was excited to see that the Bales Model agrees with him listed as the top play across the board, by a fairly good margin. He will be the starting point for many of my lineups this week in Mexico.
Aaron Wise $9,600 DraftKings
The next top-priced name both on my board and in our model is Aaron Wise. It is hard to get used to the price tag next to his name, but he has earned it dating back to the closeout of last season. He was also the runner-up to Hovland at this event last year and seems to be on the cusp of capturing his second TOUR win.
It is no secret that Wise’s biggest issue is his putter, but that is mitigated on a course like El Camaleon, where the greens are slow and not overly difficult. We have seen a number of poor putters play well on this track, including Wise last year, and if he brings his typically strong ball-striking, he will contend once again.
Mid Tier
Keegan Bradley $8,300 DraftKings
Speaking of ball strikers that can’t putt, Keegan Bradley seems too cheap for this field. He is the prototype for a player that should fit well at this course, and even with middling results over his last few appearances, he is a pretty comfortable play with great upside at this price. He is also wedged into a good spot surrounded by the chalk of Russell Henley and Mito Pereira, which will make him a great pivot in large field GPPs. It’s rare that we can get this kind of upside and win equity with low ownership at the average price.
Joaquin Niemann $7,800 DraftKings
Viktor Hovland is often the barometer for me when it comes to a course fit for Joaquin Niemann. They have similar games in that their strength is ball striking, and the supreme weakness is around the greens. The fact that Hovland has won this event gives me great hope for Niemann in a spot where his game is a bit off, but his upside is too much to ignore at just $7,800.
I know I am not alone in this thought, and his projected ownership approaching 20% certainly confirms that, but we can afford to eat some chalk in lineups as long as we get different elsewhere. He is a no-brainer to me, though I will admit Justin Rose is an intriguing pivot sliding in way under the radar.
Value Plays
C.T. Pan $7,300 DraftKings
Somehow we went into a tournament a few weeks back that was C.T. Pan chalk week at nearly $9,000 on DraftKings. It predictably went poorly, and now he’s back in the price range we are used to seeing him at but without the ownership. Pan is the favorite in the Bales Model of this range, and I agree as he will be able to attack this short course with his strong wedge game.
He has improved on his results at this course across each of his last three appearances, with his latest being a T11 in 2019. Everything seems to check out this week for Pan, and at single-digit ownership he looks like a great play.
Pat Perez $7,200 DraftKings
The dude’s nickname is the Prince of Paspalum, and you’re telling me he’s only going to garner around 5% ownership? I can’t pass that up for a player that I liked enough to write up for a top 10 bet this week. He simply doesn’t miss cuts at this course and has performed well in every appearance regardless of his form coming into the event. I’ll take that level of security and winning upside at this price any day of the week.
Sleepers
Chris Kirk $6,700 DraftKings
All I really want in this price range is a solid player to make the weekend, with just enough upside to help me win a GPP. Chris Kirk certainly checks all of those boxes, and while his game isn’t in the same form it was last season, he still has a recent top-15 finish.
He also hasn’t missed the weekend at this tournament in his last four appearances, including a peak of a T7 back in 2016. This price tag really doesn’t make much sense on Kirk, but I will happily take it as he is a way I can get up to multiple pieces at the top is a stars and “scrubs” type of build.
Tyler Duncan $6,400 DraftKings
I could nearly cut and paste my words from above on Chris Kirk in for Tyler Duncan. It’s Duncan who actually rates better in the Bales Model this week, and presents the best overall value of the week. He also hasn’t missed a cut in the last four trips to this tournament, which is all you really want at this price, but the added upside of his latest being inside the top 25 gives him a checkmark in all the boxes.
Duncan hasn’t played in a month, but that result was a T14 at the Sanderson Farms, giving us the added bonus of some form on a low-priced punt play.
