Let’s get to it. (And don’t forget to check out our Vegas dashboard for any line movements.)

Pitchers

Noah Syndergaard, NYM

Take all those peripherals that Jacob deGrom carried into Citi Field yesterday — 9.28 strikeouts per nine innings, a 2.2 miles-per-hour drop in velocity, and a -200 moneyline — and extrapolate them. Or, imagine that we could somehow rewind his performance and guarantee that deGrom turn in whatever his Ceiling might be. That’s basically what you’re getting with Syndergaard today.

He’s averaged 1.14 more SO/9 in the last year, is a heavier favorite this afternoon (-248), and has even thrown the ball 1.3 MPH harder in the last 15 days. Those stats, combined with the fact that the Brewers still have the highest strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching, make Thor an elite play today. Really, Syndergaard is just the deGrom we deserve.

Max Scherzer, WSH

There are loads of available aces today, but Scherzer still carries as much Upside as any. Just note his 11.28 SO/9, the highest among pitchers. He’s also being backed by Vegas more so than any other pitcher, taking in 89 percent of moneyline bets. Our Player Models project the Marlins with only .236 strikeouts per at-bat (without Christian Yelich), but Scherzer’s 98-percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel keeps his salary-based expectation plausible (which you can see below):

Pitchers to Exploit

Phil Hughes, MIN

There’s that one scene in Death Proof where Rosario Dawson and friends finally catch up to Kurt Russell, swerving his car off the road entirely. When they pull off to the side and open their doors, he’s already screaming in agony. His arm is broken. He can’t move. If it weren’t for his seat belt, he’d probably already be dead. They then drag him out of the car and finish it. One punch after another, each of them take a turn taking their frustration out on him. And finally, when he can’t stand anymore, they stomp his skull in. Like, concave it. And as it pertains to today, Hughes’ arm has been broken (metaphorically speaking) for some time.

His recent batted-ball distance allowed is 23 feet farther than any other pitcher. His exit velocity allowed is three miles per hour faster. And if it weren’t for Michael Pineda and Chase Anderson, Hughes’ 1.62 home runs per nine innings would stand alone as the most allowed in the last year. I don’t care who you portray as Rosario Dawson (Jose Bautista, maybe?). Just know the Blue Jays have arrived to put Hughes out of his misery.

Alfredo Simon, CIN

The Mariners have produced a higher Isolated Power (ISO) against left-handed pitching, but that doesn’t matter when Simon is on the mound. He hasn’t allowed fewer than three runs since his first start of the season and surpassed 10 DraftKings points only once in his last seven performances (unless you count that time he scored -10, then twice). Now that Simon is set to battle the double-digit winds blowing out to center field, all batters with positive differentials vs. RHP — Seth Smith, Robinson Cano, and Adam Lind — are sure to prosper.

C

Yan Gomes, CLE

This is the third day in a row that Gomes has been suggested, but his 232-foot batted-ball distance warrants that type of regard. He’s also hit the ball a whopping 16 percent harder in the last 15 days. Note that Rick Porcello has averaged 1.84 fewer SO/9 than his yearly average over his last three starts.

1B

Chris Davis, BAL

I will not be fooled (again) by one terrible outing. Matt Shoemaker certainly pitched well last night (and benefited from a few questionable calls from behind the plate), but he, at the least, throws harder than Jered Weaver. And much to Los Angeles’ dismay, the Orioles have historically produced a +4.27 Plus/Minus against pitchers whose average velocity ranges from 82 to 85 MPH. Davis’ 268-foot batted-ball distance is in no worse position than last night, which is all the more reason to go right back to him.

Carlos Santana, CLE

Rick Porcello began the year as one of the more consistent pitchers in the league, but he’s allowed the highest line-drive percentage over the last two weeks. That makes Santana more than serviceable, especially given his 220-foot batted-ball distance in that span. If he’s leading off for Cleveland (which is fully expected), Santana is even viable in cash games.

2B

Robinson Cano, SEA

Cano is certainly the most obvious player to use against Alfredo Simon today, but he’s also the most likely to excel. Just note his .557 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching. His .245 ISO is also the highest among second basemen. Even a $1,100 difference in salary at DraftKings shouldn’t deter you from rostering him across sites.

Jose Altuve, HOU

The Astros are no longer implied to score 5.0-plus runs (as they have been the last few nights), but today, oddly enough, might be their best matchup in that time. For instance, Cole Hamels’ exit velocity in the last two weeks is bottom two (behind only Phil Hughes). His hard-hit percentage allowed is the highest. That, combined with the fact that Houston has let down owners immensely in this series, is even more reason to grab Jose Altuve with little ownership. After all, his .587 slugging percentage remains the highest at second base.

3B

Mike Moustakas, KC

I don’t need Moustakas to get acclimated before rostering him. Sure, his average batted-ball distance in his first game back was only 145 feet, but all of those batted balls were line drives. Plus, his .519 slugging percentage vs. LHP remains top 10 at third base.

Matt Carpenter, STL

The Cardinals are only implied to score 3.7 runs, but Carpenter’s peripherals make him all too good an option. After all, no starter at third base (even Danny Valencia) has hit the ball farther in the past 10 days. His exit velocity in that span is also the highest. With a .251 ISO, Carpenter should be able to trump anything Zack Greinke offers today.

SS

Corey Seager, LAD

Seager is usable across sites given his 242-foot batted-ball distance. His .531 slugging percentage also trails only Aledmys Diaz, Trevor Story, and Manny Machado among shortstops. None are in a better spot, though, since Colin Rea’s recent batted-ball distance allowed qualifies as bottom three in this slate.

Troy Tulowitzki, TOR

Tulowitzki has exceeded salary-based expectations in only one of his last five games, but forget results. His batted-ball distance in the last 15 days is still seven feet farther than Manny Machado’s (the highest-rated shortstop in our Bales Model). With a 90-percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel, he might even be the most valuable player at his position.

OF

Jose Bautista, TOR

If Toronto intends on keeping Bautista and his .566 slugging percentage at the leadoff spot, there is zero reason to fade him in cash games. His batted-ball distance as of late is only 188 feet, but he’s hit the ball five percent harder in that span. The additional opportunities at the top of their lineup make up for any other flaws he might’ve shown in the last couple weeks.

Seth Smith, SEA

Smith’s recent batted-ball distance is admittedly quite poor, but he’s still produced a .347 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) against right-handed pitching. As long as he continues hitting No. 2 in their lineup, he’s in a terrific spot against Alfredo Simon tonight, arguably more so than any other player for Seattle.

Michael Conforto, NYM

I’m not sure why, but Conforto’s salary at DraftKings has dropped $100 overnight. That seems insane since New York is facing Chase Anderson, who’s allowed the most home runs per nine innings among pitchers today. Grab Conforto’s .277 ISO Differential while you can and forget about the rest.

Weather Watch

It wouldn’t be shocking to see Rockies-Pirates postponed. Thunderstorms aren’t supposed to start until first pitch, but it doesn’t look like they’ll be gone until later in the evening. In this case, I would even stay away from their hitters.

Good luck!