The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday has a nine-game main slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or are Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Auston Matthews ($8,800 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel) vs. Vegas Golden Knights
A date with the Vegas Golden Knights is what’s needed to cure Auston Matthews‘s early-season woes. The defending Rocket Richard Trophy-winner has only two points through his first six games, but there’s plenty to like about his chances tonight.
No team gives up more chances per game than the Golden Knights. Opponents are attempting 28.4 scoring and 12.5 high-danger chances at five-on-five this season, with those chances jumping to 34.5 and 15.0, respectively, across all strengths. Matthews is dominating play on the ice and will have ample opportunities to put pucks on net against Robin Lehner and the Knights. Across all strengths, Matthews has a team-best 67.3% Corsi rating, with the Leafs averaging 15.5 scoring chances and 4.7 high-danger chances with Matthews on the ice.
Despite the assertiveness, Matthews has a .912 PDO to start the season, which is a good indicator that he’s due for an outbreak. He’s near the top of all our projections and is our top play at center.
Top Value
Bo Horvat ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) vs. New York Rangers
Bo Horvat has been one of the few bright spots on an otherwise underwhelming Vancouver Canucks squad. Horvat can help the Canucks get back on the winning track Tuesday against the New York Rangers.
Four of Horvat’s six points have come over the past four games. The Canucks captain has put 12 shots on net over that span, recording three of his four points at even strength and one powerplay assist. Horvat has the metrics to back up sustained output, as both his relative scoring and high-danger metrics are above 60.0% across all strengths. The Canucks are out-scoring their opponents 7-1 in high-danger goals with Horvat on the ice and 12-7 overall.
Tonight marks the mid-point of the Canucks seven-game homestand, and they have yet to collect a victory. Another emphatic performance from Horvat will go a long way to helping them win.
Wing
Top Play
Kyle Connor ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel) vs. Dallas Stars
You might be surprised to hear that Kyle Connor is the NHL’s fourth-leading scorer. The Winnipeg Jets forward has put up 14 points in his first eight games, and the Jets continue to set him up for ongoing production.
Connor skates on the Jets’ top line and their second powerplay unit. In total, the young winger gets 70.4% of his starts in the offensive zone, which he turns into 11.3 scoring chances and 5.0 high-danger opportunities per game. What’s been most impressive about Connor’s early-season surge is his ability to score at even strength. The 25-year-old has recorded 10 of his 14 points at full strength, scoring 10 points over his past five games.
The Jets get a home matchup up with the Dallas Stars on Tuesday, and they’ll continue to ride Connor’s hot 66.7hand.
Top Value
Lucas Raymond ($4,800 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel) vs. Montreal Canadiens
The Detroit Red Wings are a young team, but once again, Steve Yzerman has put together a group of individuals who are better than the sum of their parts. Lucas Raymond is the latest player to emerge as a difference-maker on Yzerman’s team.
Raymond is off to an outstanding start in his career. The 19-year-old has been a point-per-game player through the first nine games of his career. The Red Wings have put a lot of trust in Raymond, having him quarterback the first powerplay unit and giving him 66.7% of his starts in the attacking zone. Raymond has responded by putting up a 61.3% Corsi rating and 59.0% expected goals-for percentage.
If Raymond continues with this level of production, his salary will creep up to top play level. For now, he’s a value play and worth including on your DFS rosters.
Defense
Top Play
Adam Fox ($7,200 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel) vs. Vancouver Canucks
The reigning Norris Trophy winner, Adam Fox, is fresh off signing his seven-year extension and returns to the ice Tuesday night against the Vancouver Canucks.
Fox does everything right. The Rangers use him on the first powerplay unit and penalty kill while accumulating the second-most minutes at five-on-five. In total, Fox leads the team in time on ice and points while ranking highly in powerplay points, shots, and blocked shots. Fox is in an ideal spot Tuesday night against the Canucks, who allow 11.7 high-danger chances per game and have the fifth-worst expected goals-against per game.
There are pricier defensemen available, but they don’t contribute what Fox does. He’s our top play on defense.
Top Value
Dysin Mayo ($3,800 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Moving on from Oliver Ekman-Larsson, this summer might have been made easier by knowing that you had Dysin Mayo waiting in the wings for a shot in the lineup. So far, the rookie defenseman hasn’t disappointed.
Mayo has strong production metrics but also serves on the Yotes’ penalty kill, where he adds fantasy value by filling shooting lanes. The 25-year-old has one goal in four NHL games, delivering six shots on net and nine blocked shots. Mayo’s relative production metrics are above 50.0%, as the d-man has posted 52.2% rating in scoring chances and a 57.1% rating in quality chances, resulting in a 55.1% expected goals-for percentage at five-on-five.
We’ve keyed in on Mayo as a progression candidate as his on-ice PDO is 0.922. Mayo rates highly in our projections but has a bargain salary.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Connor Hellebuyck ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) vs. Dallas Stars
There’s nothing like a date with the Dallas Stars to get a goalie back on track. Connor Hellebuyck hasn’t been his typical self early this season, but circumstances favor him and the Jets tonight.
The Jets’ goalie is below career averages in several key categories to start the season. Hellebuyck is stopping just 77.1% of powerplay shots, 10.0% lower than his career average of 87.1%. That is contributing to his 89.9% save percentage, which is off his career pace of 91.6%. Six of the Jets’ first eight games have come on the road, but now Hellebuyck gets to settle in for seven straight home games, where he has a 92.8% save percentage this season. It helps that the Stars are one of the worst offensive teams in the league, scoring just 14 goals through their first eight games.
We should start seeing Hellebuyck trend in the right direction, and that starts tonight against Dallas.
Top Value
Craig Anderson ($7,200 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel) vs. San Jose Sharks
Another night, another spot in which Craig Anderson is undervalued in the DFS world. Anderson is having a resurgent year and gets a start against the regression-bound San Jose Sharks.
Anderson has four wins through his first five starts, stopping 93.9% of shots. His even-strength high-danger save percentage, powerplay save percentage, and even strength save percentage are all above average. Anderson will eventually regress towards career averages, but we’re not expecting that to come against a Sharks team that has attempted nine or fewer high-danger chances at five-on-five in five of their eight games and scored just two goals at five-on-five over the past three outings.
There is value in drafting Anderson on your DFS rosters. His inexpensive salary makes him one of the best values on the board, per our projections.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
We built our favorite stack using the projected points function in our lineup builder, landing on a Jets stack as the one to go with on Tuesday night.
We’ve already covered the rationale for including Connor and Hellebuyck on your rosters; adding Pierre-Luc Dubois and Nate Schmidt ranks as one of the top options on the slate. Dubois skates with Connor on the Jets’ first line and powerplay unit, and seven of Dubois’ 10 points have involved his linemate. Schmidt has been active on the Jets’ first powerplay unit, with three of his six assists coming with the man advantage. The trio of skaters will spend time together in the attacking zone and should find their way onto the scoresheet.
The Jets stack rates as one of the best lineup combinations in our projections, making them our notable stack tonight.
