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MLB DFS 5/21/16 Slate Breakdown

Let’s do this. (And don’t forget to check out our Vegas dashboard for any line movements.)

Pitchers

Jose Fernandez, MIA

The fact Washington produced any amount of offense yesterday is really just a blessing in disguise. After all, while they’ve posted an immaculate .358 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) against lefties this season, the Nats .385 slugging percentage versus right-handed pitching is bottom-five in the majors. Fernandez also has the third-highest Park Factor tonight, behind only Jon Lester and Matt Cain (pitching in AT&T Park will do that). There are those with better matchups (see the next suggestion), but arguably no one at his position has the combination of Upside and Consistency that Fernandez carries today.

Jacob deGrom, NYM

It seems like we’ve spent more time discussing deGrom’s 2.2 miles per hour plummet in velocity rather than his improvement along the way. Either way, consider tonight a tuneup while he continues to get back on track. He’s the only pitcher with double-digit Pro Trends, but I still don’t consider him the strongest cash option tonight. Just look at his 20 percent Consistency in the last month. Still, the Brewers league-high strikeout rate against right-handed pitching places deGrom in the best spot for tournaments. He’s also projected to allow 0.4 fewer runs than any other pitcher today.

Drew Smyly, TB

The Randy Rogers Band once wrote a shitty song called “Company You Keep” that went something like “Don’t blame me if I don’t send you roses anymore / Don’t blame me if I don’t kiss your hand and hold the door / well there’s just too many others, I hate to compete / so, honey, when I’m gone, blame it on the company you keep.” And in this case, Detroit’s wOBA versus southpaws keeps them in company with Atlanta, Minnesota, and Philadelphia. Much like the song, that’s not a good thing.

J.A. Happ, TOR

For as much grief as we give Atlanta for being outright awful vs. LHP, the Twins ISO against said handedness is only .007 higher. Happ isn’t a cash option, but his $8,100 price tag at DraftKings is low enough to make him an elite choice as your second pitcher. Note that he’s allowed a batted-ball distance 13 feet shorter than his yearly average over his last two starts.

Pitchers to Exploit

Pat Dean, MIN

Dean has yet to start a major league game, but he notably allowed 1.29 more home runs per nine innings to right-handed batters in AAA than he did to lefties. With Kevin Pillar back in the lineup, that means eight of nine players will bat right-handed for Toronto today. And Dean isn’t receiving any votes of confidence from Vegas, as he’s taken in the lowest percentage of moneyline bets among pitchers. This can only go downhill.

Sean Manaea, OAK

The Yankees are only projected to score four runs, but they’re in a much better spot than most offenses. Not only are Manaea’s 1.95 HR/9 the highest today, but his batted-ball distance allowed recently is bottom-four. Oh, and only Dean has received a lower percentage of moneyline bets in Vegas. The strong winds blowing out to right field should only benefit Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, and Brian McCann.

Matt Shoemaker, LAA

The Orioles strikeout at an above-average rate versus right-handed pitching, but their wOBA and ISO are both top-three. That’s awful news for Shoemaker, who’s allowed the farthest batted-ball distance since returning from injury. Baltimore’s first four hitters also have an average .076 ISO Differential against righties.

C

Salvador Perez, KC

Name a category that reflects well for hitters and Perez is likely top-10 in it — raw wOBA, wOBA Differential, ISO, slugging percentage, and batted-ball distance. Now sprinkle in Miguel Gonzalez’s 1.7 HR/9 and what we have is a recipe for a cash play.

Yan Gomes, CLE

Tonight marks the first start for Joe Kelly in over a month, but he notably allowed 0.77 more HR/9 to right-handed batters just last year. This is when I tell you that Gomes’ batted-ball distance and hard-hit percentage lately are top-five among catchers. And he’s still underpriced at FanDuel, where he has an 86 percent Bargain Rating.

1B

Chris Davis, BAL

Davis is an obvious choice, but a great one, nonetheless. Simply note his .371/.438/.650 wOBA, ISO, and slugging slash, all of which are top-two at first base tonight. His batted-ball distance is also 10 feet farther than any other starter over the last two weeks.

2B

Jose Altuve, HOU

Altuve’s recent exit velocity has been poor, but he’s still leading off for an offense projected to score five runs. His slugging percentage against left-handed pitching is also far and away the highest at second base (and has a .025 differential over Ian Kinsler, the next closest at his position).

Tommy La Stella, CHC

With Dexter Fowler likely shelved for the foreseeable future, La Stella should slide right into Chicago’s lineup. And if that is the case, note his spectacular .212 ISO Differential. La Stella can also be plugged in at third base on DraftKings, but his 225 feet batted-ball distance is top-seven among second basemen (and outside the top-15 at the latter position).

3B

Josh Donaldson, TOR

Because he’s facing a lefty. Duh.

Kyle Seager, SEA

If I had to guess, I would think you could get Seager with little ownership tonight. For obvious reasons, most players are likely to just pay the extra $800 to get Donaldson at DraftKings. However, Seager’s recent batted-ball distance is actually 24 feet farther than Donaldson’s. Seager also has a .510 slugging percentage vs. LHP.

Todd Frazier, CWS

Danny Duffy will again be limited, but even five innings should be enough time for Frazier to excel. Simply note his .552 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching. His hard-hit percentage in the last 15 days is also higher than either Donaldson’s or Seager’s.

SS

Brad Miller, TB

Michael Fulmer’s 10.36 strikeouts per nine innings could actually prevail in Detroit tonight. After all, the Rays strikeout in 25.3 percent of their at-bats against righties. But Fulmer has still allowed 1.88 HR/9 this season, second only to Sean Manaea tonight. That leaves more than enough room for Miller’s .129 ISO Differential to produce.

Trevor Story, COL

Ever wanted Story with little ownership? Tonight’s your best opportunity. The Rockies are projected to score only 3.8 runs, but Jon Niese has been rocked for 2.17 HR/9 by right-handed batters this season. Story has exceeded salary-based expectations in only 40 percent of his last 10 starts, but his batted-ball distance in that span remains the highest among starting shortstops.

OF

Nelson Cruz, SEA

All things considered, tonight is really just the perfect spot for Cruz. Not only has John Lamb allowed 1.04 HR/9 to right-handed batters in the last year, but Cruz’s wOBA and ISO versus southpaws are top-10 among outfielders. His 94 MPH exit velocity is also a testament to how hard he’s hit the ball as of late (which keeps him viable in cash games).

Alex Gordon, KC

The Royals should flourish altogether, but Gordon might be the priority amongst them. Despite a .390 slugging percentage against right-handers, Gordon’s averaged a ridiculous 267 feet batted-ball distance as of late. Miguel Gonzalez is also the lowest Rated pitcher in our Bales Model tonight.

Adam Jones, BAL

Jones is one of only three outfielders with double-digit Pro Trends tonight. His .103 ISO Differential is outstanding, but his spot in Baltimore’s order makes him a terrific option no matter. He’s also averaged a farther batted-ball distance than Manny Machado in the last 15 days.

George Springer, HOU

Springer’s recent batted-ball distance is median compared to those around him, but he’s still arguably the most valuable outfielder tonight. Look no further than his 97 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel for proof. The Astros are also implied to score the second-most runs tonight, which bodes well for Springer’s .414 wOBA versus lefties.

Weather Watch

Braves-Phillies could see rain throughout the afternoon, but it would be cancelled well before first pitch. Just monitor it closely. The chance of rain increases throughout Rockies-Pirates, but actual showers shouldn’t start until the evening. Yankees-Athletics could see thunderstorms mid-play, but it would likely be delayed rather than postponed. Still, that’s concerning for Masahiro Tanaka in cash games.

Good luck!

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

No related posts.

Let’s do this. (And don’t forget to check out our Vegas dashboard for any line movements.)

Pitchers

Jose Fernandez, MIA

The fact Washington produced any amount of offense yesterday is really just a blessing in disguise. After all, while they’ve posted an immaculate .358 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) against lefties this season, the Nats .385 slugging percentage versus right-handed pitching is bottom-five in the majors. Fernandez also has the third-highest Park Factor tonight, behind only Jon Lester and Matt Cain (pitching in AT&T Park will do that). There are those with better matchups (see the next suggestion), but arguably no one at his position has the combination of Upside and Consistency that Fernandez carries today.

Jacob deGrom, NYM

It seems like we’ve spent more time discussing deGrom’s 2.2 miles per hour plummet in velocity rather than his improvement along the way. Either way, consider tonight a tuneup while he continues to get back on track. He’s the only pitcher with double-digit Pro Trends, but I still don’t consider him the strongest cash option tonight. Just look at his 20 percent Consistency in the last month. Still, the Brewers league-high strikeout rate against right-handed pitching places deGrom in the best spot for tournaments. He’s also projected to allow 0.4 fewer runs than any other pitcher today.

Drew Smyly, TB

The Randy Rogers Band once wrote a shitty song called “Company You Keep” that went something like “Don’t blame me if I don’t send you roses anymore / Don’t blame me if I don’t kiss your hand and hold the door / well there’s just too many others, I hate to compete / so, honey, when I’m gone, blame it on the company you keep.” And in this case, Detroit’s wOBA versus southpaws keeps them in company with Atlanta, Minnesota, and Philadelphia. Much like the song, that’s not a good thing.

J.A. Happ, TOR

For as much grief as we give Atlanta for being outright awful vs. LHP, the Twins ISO against said handedness is only .007 higher. Happ isn’t a cash option, but his $8,100 price tag at DraftKings is low enough to make him an elite choice as your second pitcher. Note that he’s allowed a batted-ball distance 13 feet shorter than his yearly average over his last two starts.

Pitchers to Exploit

Pat Dean, MIN

Dean has yet to start a major league game, but he notably allowed 1.29 more home runs per nine innings to right-handed batters in AAA than he did to lefties. With Kevin Pillar back in the lineup, that means eight of nine players will bat right-handed for Toronto today. And Dean isn’t receiving any votes of confidence from Vegas, as he’s taken in the lowest percentage of moneyline bets among pitchers. This can only go downhill.

Sean Manaea, OAK

The Yankees are only projected to score four runs, but they’re in a much better spot than most offenses. Not only are Manaea’s 1.95 HR/9 the highest today, but his batted-ball distance allowed recently is bottom-four. Oh, and only Dean has received a lower percentage of moneyline bets in Vegas. The strong winds blowing out to right field should only benefit Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, and Brian McCann.

Matt Shoemaker, LAA

The Orioles strikeout at an above-average rate versus right-handed pitching, but their wOBA and ISO are both top-three. That’s awful news for Shoemaker, who’s allowed the farthest batted-ball distance since returning from injury. Baltimore’s first four hitters also have an average .076 ISO Differential against righties.

C

Salvador Perez, KC

Name a category that reflects well for hitters and Perez is likely top-10 in it — raw wOBA, wOBA Differential, ISO, slugging percentage, and batted-ball distance. Now sprinkle in Miguel Gonzalez’s 1.7 HR/9 and what we have is a recipe for a cash play.

Yan Gomes, CLE

Tonight marks the first start for Joe Kelly in over a month, but he notably allowed 0.77 more HR/9 to right-handed batters just last year. This is when I tell you that Gomes’ batted-ball distance and hard-hit percentage lately are top-five among catchers. And he’s still underpriced at FanDuel, where he has an 86 percent Bargain Rating.

1B

Chris Davis, BAL

Davis is an obvious choice, but a great one, nonetheless. Simply note his .371/.438/.650 wOBA, ISO, and slugging slash, all of which are top-two at first base tonight. His batted-ball distance is also 10 feet farther than any other starter over the last two weeks.

2B

Jose Altuve, HOU

Altuve’s recent exit velocity has been poor, but he’s still leading off for an offense projected to score five runs. His slugging percentage against left-handed pitching is also far and away the highest at second base (and has a .025 differential over Ian Kinsler, the next closest at his position).

Tommy La Stella, CHC

With Dexter Fowler likely shelved for the foreseeable future, La Stella should slide right into Chicago’s lineup. And if that is the case, note his spectacular .212 ISO Differential. La Stella can also be plugged in at third base on DraftKings, but his 225 feet batted-ball distance is top-seven among second basemen (and outside the top-15 at the latter position).

3B

Josh Donaldson, TOR

Because he’s facing a lefty. Duh.

Kyle Seager, SEA

If I had to guess, I would think you could get Seager with little ownership tonight. For obvious reasons, most players are likely to just pay the extra $800 to get Donaldson at DraftKings. However, Seager’s recent batted-ball distance is actually 24 feet farther than Donaldson’s. Seager also has a .510 slugging percentage vs. LHP.

Todd Frazier, CWS

Danny Duffy will again be limited, but even five innings should be enough time for Frazier to excel. Simply note his .552 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching. His hard-hit percentage in the last 15 days is also higher than either Donaldson’s or Seager’s.

SS

Brad Miller, TB

Michael Fulmer’s 10.36 strikeouts per nine innings could actually prevail in Detroit tonight. After all, the Rays strikeout in 25.3 percent of their at-bats against righties. But Fulmer has still allowed 1.88 HR/9 this season, second only to Sean Manaea tonight. That leaves more than enough room for Miller’s .129 ISO Differential to produce.

Trevor Story, COL

Ever wanted Story with little ownership? Tonight’s your best opportunity. The Rockies are projected to score only 3.8 runs, but Jon Niese has been rocked for 2.17 HR/9 by right-handed batters this season. Story has exceeded salary-based expectations in only 40 percent of his last 10 starts, but his batted-ball distance in that span remains the highest among starting shortstops.

OF

Nelson Cruz, SEA

All things considered, tonight is really just the perfect spot for Cruz. Not only has John Lamb allowed 1.04 HR/9 to right-handed batters in the last year, but Cruz’s wOBA and ISO versus southpaws are top-10 among outfielders. His 94 MPH exit velocity is also a testament to how hard he’s hit the ball as of late (which keeps him viable in cash games).

Alex Gordon, KC

The Royals should flourish altogether, but Gordon might be the priority amongst them. Despite a .390 slugging percentage against right-handers, Gordon’s averaged a ridiculous 267 feet batted-ball distance as of late. Miguel Gonzalez is also the lowest Rated pitcher in our Bales Model tonight.

Adam Jones, BAL

Jones is one of only three outfielders with double-digit Pro Trends tonight. His .103 ISO Differential is outstanding, but his spot in Baltimore’s order makes him a terrific option no matter. He’s also averaged a farther batted-ball distance than Manny Machado in the last 15 days.

George Springer, HOU

Springer’s recent batted-ball distance is median compared to those around him, but he’s still arguably the most valuable outfielder tonight. Look no further than his 97 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel for proof. The Astros are also implied to score the second-most runs tonight, which bodes well for Springer’s .414 wOBA versus lefties.

Weather Watch

Braves-Phillies could see rain throughout the afternoon, but it would be cancelled well before first pitch. Just monitor it closely. The chance of rain increases throughout Rockies-Pirates, but actual showers shouldn’t start until the evening. Yankees-Athletics could see thunderstorms mid-play, but it would likely be delayed rather than postponed. Still, that’s concerning for Masahiro Tanaka in cash games.

Good luck!

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No related posts.