Friday features a seven-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Stud
It’s time to buy low on Damian Lillard. He’s struggled to start the year, posting an average Plus/Minus of -6.73 through his first four games, but it hasn’t been entirely his fault. The Blazers have played in three straight blowouts, so Lillard has unsurprisingly played reduced minutes in all three games. His fantasy scoring should return to normal once his workload does.
When that happens, he’s going to be a massive value at just $8,400 on FanDuel. He owns a Bargain Rating of 95%, and Lillard has averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.15 with a comparable salary since the start of the 2019 season (per the Trends tool).
Value
Jalen Brunson has been awesome to start the season. He’s averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute, and he saw a nice spike in playing time on Thursday given the team’s injury situation. He logged a season-high 30.1 minutes and finished with 36.75 DraftKings points. The Mavericks have not yet submitted an injury report for Friday’s matchup vs. the Nuggets, but they could be shorthanded once again. If that happens, Brunson makes for an excellent value option.
Fast Break
Luka Doncic and Russell Westbrook are other point guards who could see a bump depending on injuries. Westbrook has scored at least 59.5 DraftKings points in back-to-back games without LeBron James, so he would become a bargain at $9,700 if LeBron is out again. Doncic doesn’t see nearly the same boost without Kristaps Porzingis, but he’s already one of the best fantasy producers in the league.
Malcolm Brogdon has been ruled out for the Pacers, and Caris LeVert has yet to suit up this season. There’s a chance he could return to the lineup on Friday, but that should still leave plenty of playing time for T.J. McConnell. He’s an elite producer on a per-minute basis, so he’s always in play in games where he’s expected to play big minutes. He’s currently projected for nearly 31 minutes in our NBA Models, which definitely qualifies.
Shooting Guard
Stud
What has happened to James Harden? He has previously been one of the biggest fantasy studs in basketball, but he’s scored 46.6 FanDuel points or fewer in all five games to start the year. Most of his rate stats are similar to his marks from last year, yet his fantasy scoring has dropped by more than 10 points per game. What gives?
One concerning trend is his drastic decline in free throws. Harden averaged .439 free throws per field goal attempt last year, but that number has dipped to just .192 this season. He’s getting to the line just 3.2 times per game, which would be the lowest mark of his career by a sizable margin. The league has cracked down on “free throw creation,” which is something that Harden specialized in:
Not this year James. Love it. pic.twitter.com/Q2yCG5wVeI
— Nate Duncan (@NateDuncanNBA) October 27, 2021
That means his free throw numbers could stay down for most of the year.
Still, the bigger culprit has just been poor shooting numbers. He shot 47.1% from the field last season with the Nets, but that mark is down to just 35.9% this season. Ultimately, Harden is too talented not to figure things out. His start will start falling eventually, and when it does, he should return to fantasy excellence.
Value
Sticking with the Nets, Bruce Brown is also in play on Friday. He started the year surprisingly out of the Nets’ rotation, but he has returned to playing a prominent role. He’s logged at least 30.3 minutes in each of his past two games, and Brown has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute over the past year. That makes him an excellent value across the industry, but especially on DraftKings at just $3,800.
Fast Break
Nickeil Alexander-Walker is coming off his worst game of the year in his last outing, but he shot a dreadful 3-14 from the field. His fantasy arrow is still pointing way up, so expect him to bounce back vs. the Kings. He’s massively underpriced at just $6,000 on FanDuel.
Collin Sexton has been hit-or-miss to start the year, but he remains the Cavs’ offensive focal point. He’s played more than 29.4 minutes in just two games this season, and he’s scored at least 39.75 DraftKings points in both contests. He should see more consistent playing time moving forward, so he’s a prime buy-low target.
Small Forward
Stud
The Pelicans have one of the best matchups of the day vs. the Kings, who rank sixth in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency to start the year. That makes Brandon Ingram an appealing target on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 82%. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his first five games, and he should continue to carry an increased usage rate without Zion Williamson. He’s averaged 1.19 FanDuel points per minute with Williamson off the court since the start of last season, so he has excellent upside in this matchup.
Value
Tim Hardaway Jr. is priced at just $5,100 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%. Hardaway has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.37 with a comparable salary as a member of the Mavericks, and he would also likely see a usage bump if Porzingis is ruled out.
Fast Break
Gordon Hayward is coming off his best game of the year, finishing with 42.75 DraftKings points over 37.2 minutes. That game came with Terry Rozier out of the lineup, and Hayward would be an appealing option if he’s ruled out once again.
Kent Bazemore could be another potential value option at the position. He’s very affordable across the industry, and he could see a slight bump if LeBron is ruled out.
Power Forward
Stud
Domantas Sabonis racked up just 28.1 FanDuel points in his last outing, but that game stands out as a major outlier. He posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first four games, so this could be a nice buy-low opportunity. His price has decreased to just $9,300 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 79%, and his 11 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position.
Sabonis should also see a boost in value with Brogdon out of the lineup. He averaged 1.34 FanDuel points per minute with Brogdon off the court last season, and he should see more opportunities as a playmaker. Finally, Sabonis owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.28 vs. the Nets, giving him one of the better matchups at the position.
Value
Wendell Carter Jr. and Mo Bamba have been splitting the big man minutes for the Magic this season, and both players have provided plenty of value. Carter has PF eligibility on DraftKings, and he’s averaged a stout 1.13 DraftKings points per minute. He’s currently projected for around 30 minutes in our NBA Models, making him a strong option at just $5,900.
Both players have PF eligibility on FanDuel, and Bamba might be the preferred option there. He’s slightly more expensive, but his ability on the defensive end gives him a bit more upside. He’s averaging 1.0 steals and 1.6 blocks per game, and those are worth three points apiece on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Nicolas Batum is underpriced at just $4,000 on DraftKings. He played 32.2 minutes in the Clippers’ last game, and he responded with 27.5 DraftKings points. He’s expected to see a similar workload on Friday, and Batum has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.89 with a comparable price tag and minute projection.
Bam Adebayo has PF eligibility on FanDuel, which increases his appeal. Center is loaded with quality options on most nights, while power forward is a bit thinner. He’s also underpriced at $8,000 on FanDuel, but he was downgraded to questionable. Make sure he’s active before locking him into your lineups.
Center
Stud
Jonas Valanciunas has been priced up to $8,200 on FanDuel, but he still presents excellent value at that salary. His price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%, and he leads the position with 12 Pro Trends.
Valanciunas has provided his usual elite per-minute production to start the year, but he’s getting far more playing time with the Pelicans than he ever did with the Grizzlies or Raptors. He’s logged at least 35.4 minutes in three straight games, and he’s unsurprisingly crushed in all three contests. There’s no reason to stop riding him now, especially given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.93.
Value
Precious Achiuwa is another center that has been underpriced for most of the year. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.01 through his first five games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past four contests. He’s averaged 1.01 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s seeing more than enough playing time to pay off his current $5,100 salary.
Fast Break
Richaun Holmes stands out as the best value at the position on DraftKings. He owns a Bargain Rating of 98%, and he’s scored at least 35.0 DraftKings points in three of his first four games. The Pelicans also represent a strong matchup, and the Kings’ implied team total ranks fifth on the slate.
Jusuf Nurkic is another player to consider buying low on. His playing time has been way down recently due to the team’s recent string of blowouts, but he remains effective on a per-minute basis. His fantasy numbers should normalize as soon as his playing time does.
