The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Center
Top Play
Nathan MacKinnon ($8,600 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel) at St. Louis Blues
The Blues lead the league in goals-for per game thus far, averaging an incredible 5.0 goals per game. St. Louis is also only allowing 2.2 goals against per game but is allowing over 34 shots on net per game, so the opportunity for some regression defensively in that area is definitely there. For his part, Nathan MacKinnon missed a couple of games at the start of the season but is already up to eight points in five games. MacKinnon has been his usual elite self for fantasy purposes, and he comes in leading the slate in long-term form at shots on goal + blocked shots and CorsiFor rating (by wide margins).
MacKinnon also leads all centers in Ceiling Projection and, while you can make the case for fading him in bigger fields today given that he’s pretty likely to draw a ton of ownership, the pain will be real if he hits as his Ceiling Projection tonight — which is a full 3.0 points bigger than the next player at his position. In spots like these, its best just to take your medicine (aka points) and look for leverage spots or cheaper upside at other positions.
Top Value
Yanni Gourde ($4,200 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) vs. Minnesota Wild
Former Lightning role player Yanni Gourde is playing big minutes out of the gate for the depth-starved Kraken. Gourde has now played over 21 minutes a game for the Kraken in each of their last three starts and is ranking inside the top-10% in the FantasyLabs Pro Trends in most powerplay stats.
Gourde has recorded a point per game in the new role with Seattle thus far and also rates out extremely well in the FantasyLabs Projected Points Model today, where he’s fourth on FanDuel and also has a Bargain Rating of 90%. Gourde has a tougher matchup against Minnesota, a team that has given up the second-fewest scoring chances against through three weeks, but it’s hard to make an argument that there’s a better standalone play at center today given the usage he’s seeing.
Gourde can be used in a value stack here with either Jaden Schwartz or Calle Janrock, or simply on his own given the high usage role he’s in. That won’t be changing anytime soon.
Wing
Top Play
Kyle Conner ($7,700 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel) @ Los Angeles Kings
Conner has started the season hot, having already scored 11 points through six games while also recording five shots on goal per game. When we look at the FantasyLabs Pro Trends, Conner rates out in the top 5% of shots on goal, predicted shots on goal, and Corsi for the last month. It’s hard to find a player dominating at his position more than Conner right now, and with him still available at decent prices — especially on DraftKings where he has a 77% Bargain rating — he sets up as a tough fade right now as he’s pretty much out-produced every winger at his range over the start of the year.
For the night, he rates out in the top five in Ceiling Projection on both sites and has a decent matchup with the Kings, who have allowed 3.3 goals against per game thus far and have the second-worst penalty-kill in the league at the moment. Conner is a good standalone option here or can be used as part of a high variance Jets powerplay stack against the poor special teams of the Kings.
Top Value
Jonathan Dahlen ($4,400 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) at Dallas Stars
Jonathan Dahlen has been a revelation for the Sharks so far this year. The former Swedish elite league star has inserted himself on the top line for the Sharks and done well to convert that opportunity into solid production right off the bat. It’s a small sample, but through his first six games, Dahlen leads this slate in CorsiFor Rating and is also averaging 3.0 shots on net per game, which would put him seventh on this slate against players with long-term form.
Dahlen’s in a weird spot for DFS too. He’s still very cheap on DraftKings and rates out well there (a Sharks stack isn’t likely to be very popular either), but he’s listed as a center on FanDuel for some reason and has a salary under $4,000 there — he also checks in there with the best overall Rating at center on the slate in the Projected Points Model.
Regardless of how you slice it, Dahlen’s one of the best values available tonight but could be the sneakier play on DraftKings where he’s at his usual winger spot.
Defense
Top Play
Jakob Chychrun ($5,700 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Jakub Chychrun’s production in 2021-2022 doesn’t look all that different from last season if you excuse the lack of points. The talented defenseman hasn’t got on the scoresheet through six games, but he is averaging over 5.0 blocked shots + shots on goal (per game) on the season. Long-term, Chychrun is second on the slate in that same category, and he comes in with the second-best Ceiling Projection today on DraftKings in the Projected Points Model, despite being just the 11th most-expensive player on the site.
Tampa Bay hasn’t exactly been defensive dynamos to begin the year either. They’ve given up the fourth-most goals per game and the 14th most quality scoring chances against on the season. Chychrun’s actual point production has dipped, but the rest of his fantasy stats have remained the same or better. Now that his price has dipped as well, he rates out as a good player to take a shot with here. The Coyotes defenseman scored 18 goals last year, so some positive regression is likely to hit him sooner than later.
Top Value
Mikhail Sergachev ($4,300 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel) at Arizona Coyotes
The Lightning have a 3.6 implied goal total against the Coyotes — who also rank last in penalty-kill with an absurdly low 35% kill rate — so it behooves us to look at their lineup for some potential targets. Mikhail Sergachev made a commitment in the offseason to improve his shot and goal-scoring abilities, and, thus far, it does seem like it’s paying off.
Over his last 15 games, he’s now trending inside the top 5% at his position for shots on goals and has three of shots on goal in each of his last three games.
Sergachev ranks 11th in goals per game on this slate at his position as well and has already landed two goals on the season — after landing just four all of last year. This is a player trending well in the peripheral stats who also has a plus match-up against the NHL’s worst team. He’s a solid value on both sites but rates out very well on FanDuel, especially where he has a 75% Bargain Rating and ranks 11th in Ceiling Projection at his position in the Projected Points Model.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Andrei Vasilevskiy ($8,500 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Coyotes
Andrei Vasilevskiy and the Lightning take on the struggling Coyotes, who have yet to find a win on the season. It is possible the Lightning, who are massive -299 favorites, choose to rest Vasilevskiy in this spot, so do keep an eye on the goalie announcements. If they do start him, Vasilevskiy is a player you’ll want to pay up for. He rates out with a Ceiling Projection here of 5.2 points more than the second-rated goalie on the slate, and his team has a +1.6 goal edge in implied team totals as well.
While making rosters you like will be difficult with the Tampa netminder, you love to see that he’s been priced up a little as it may help keep his ownership levels down, despite being a monster favorite here. The Lightning bounced back nicely against Pittsburgh in their last start, and Vasilevskiy looks like he’s finally found that early season rhythm. Fading him will bring a lot more variance into play and should only be done for leverage opportunities.
Top Value
Adin Hill ($8,300 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel) vs. Montreal Canadiens
We obviously have a huge price discrepancy between sites here on Adin Hill who is a full $1,200 cheaper on FanDuel. The savings you get there are massive, but it will make him a popular play. Right now, the slate only has one massive favorite, and the Sharks actually come in as the second-biggest favorite after Tampa at -133. It may not seem like much, but Hill being a home favorite against struggling Montreal — and only being $7,100 on Fanduel — could make him one of the top-two owned players at goalie on this slate.
Despite a poor outing his last time out, Hill is playing well with two shutouts already on the season and ranks fourth here in the Ceiling Projections on both sites, in the Projected Points Model. He’s projected to start here against a Montreal team that ranks last in goals per game and comes in with the 12th worst expected goal rate (xGF%). Paying up for Hill on DraftKings may actually get you really low ownership as well, as many will scoff at paying that much for a Sharks goalie. It makes him a solid target on both sites, albeit for very different reasons.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
Penguins L1 – Evan Rodrigues, Jake Guentzel, Kasperi Kapanen
When we run the Stacks tool by Player Ratings, the Penguins’ first line steps up and projects as our top overall play. The Pittsburgh first line costs us $10,000 less than the Colorado big line on DraftKings today, and we have two Penguins players on that site that cost less than $5,000. First lines this cheap are hard to come by, but it’s also rare we get one that’s actually been producing. Two of the three players here are averaging over 3.0 shots per game this year, and center Evan Rodrigues has been a great revelation as a driver of the puck with three goals already to lead the trio.
None of these players are elite producers by the long-term trends, but the line is definitely a sum of its parts as all three are trending well in the short-term and are boosted in the ratings by the increased opportunity. Calgary is coming into Pittsburgh at the tail end of a long five-game road trip (they’re 4-0) and may be due for a little regression after playing well in their previous stops. It’s a good spot to go value hunting with the Pittsburgh top line, which will allow you to roster elite, but expensive duos like MacKinnon/Rantanen or Stamkos/Point and really capitalize on this lines cheap salaries.
