In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Top Tight Ends in the FantasyLabs Models
There are four tight ends atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models.
Here’s where they place within our Week 8 Fantasy Rankings (as of Tuesday evening):
- TJ Hockenson (3rd)
- Tyler Higbee (8th)
- Jared Cook (11th)
- Dan Arnold (12th)
We’ll discuss why these four are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks in potential high-scoring games.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Tuesday
- Wide Receivers on Wednesday
- Running Backs on Friday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Tight Ends
TJ Hockenson ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel): Detroit Lions (+3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (47.5 total)
Hockenson is just behind Kyle Pitts for the top spot in our Median Projections this week and is cheaper on both sites this week. He has an 81% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, which is where he leads two of our models, including the Cash Game Model.
It’s been an up and down season for Hockenson after a strong start. After opening the season with consecutive 20-point (DraftKings) performances, he disappeared over the next three weeks, scoring less than 15 points combined. The last couple have been better. He’s made it to double-digit points and averaged ten targets per game.
While this could be just variance, Hockenson dealt with some injuries in the middle of that run. Based on his usage the past two weeks, he seems to be fully healthy. This should be a fast-paced, relatively high-scoring affair, so Hockenson should push for close to ten targets.
This is a dream matchup for Hockenson this week against Philadelphia. The Eagles are mediocre against the pass generally but much softer over the middle of the field. This works out perfectly for tight ends, who’ve scored at least 13.9 points against the Eagles in all but one game this season. (Did you know you can view points allowed by defenses in our models? When you click a defensive unit, points allowed vs. each position in each game is included in the game logs).
Hockenson leads all tight ends in Pts/Sal on FanDuel. He’s solid on DraftKings, too though, where he’s sixth by that metric. With all the hype around Pitts the past few weeks, TJ could go overlooked this week. Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and Darren Waller are all missing from the slate, so Hockenson just might be the highest scoring tight end this week.
Tyler Higbee ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel): Los Angeles Rams (-14.5) at Houston Texans (48 total)
Higbee is the only tight end to lead at least one model on both sites this week. He leads three of our FanDuel Models, as well as our Tournament Model on DraftKings.
Like Hockenson, his Rams are taking on a Texans team that has been vulnerable to tight ends, having allowed four 20-point (FanDuel) performances already. That’s about where the similarities end, though. Higbee is seeing a much smaller share of the Rams passing attack — but it’s a far better attack.
The Rams have the highest Vegas total on the slate this week, so we want to get exposure to them. Higbee offers a cheap route towards doing so. Higbee is top 10 in tight end targets this year, so he’s by no means a punt option either.
As is a recurring theme throughout this week, targeting the Rams passing attack is not without its issues though. Stafford is only averaging 31 passing attempts in the Rams’ double-digit victories this season. At Higbee’s target share, that represents only about four targets.
I generally prefer to stay away from the middle of the price range for tight ends regardless. Higbee doesn’t really have the ceiling to compete for the top tight end score on the slate — his best game this year was only 68 receiving yards. He also doesn’t have a floor much higher than the punt options, with two games of two or fewer catches this season.
Regardless, our projections do have him as a value on FanDuel. He’s tied with Hockenson for the best Pts/Sal on the slate.
Jared Cook ($3,400 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5) vs. New England Patriots (48.5 total)
On the topic of punt options, we have Jared Cook. The ageless Cook leads one of our DraftKings models this week.
Despite his much cheaper (on DraftKings) salary, Cook actually has the same number of targets as Higbee this season, in one fewer game. He has a similar target share, but his Chargers have had to throw the ball more often than their cross-stadium rivals.
Cook isn’t the most exciting choice, but he’s a legitimate touchdown threat on a team implied for 27 points this week against the Jets. We know how bad the Jets defense is, so the Chargers should have no problem filling up the scoreboard.
Cook could also go overlooked for tournaments. Ricky Seals-Jones is in a similar price range and has been the chalk tight end the past few weeks. RSJ is projecting slightly better, but tight end scoring is largely touchdown driven. As we know, player touchdowns are tricky to predict — and the Chargers should score more of them. Cook could easily outperform Seals-Jones at greatly reduced rostership.
Cook is in a tricky spot for cash games. There are cheaper options that will project similarly, and he doesn’t have the upside to challenge the top players. However, he’s an intriguing tournament play at what’s likely to be very little rostership.
Dan Arnold ($2,800 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel): Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) at Seattle Seahawks (43 total)
Dan Arnold is that cheaper player with a similar projection to Cook. His Median Projection is within half-point of Cook, at $600 cheaper on DraftKings. The Jaguars tight end leads three of our Pro Models there, including the Cash Game Model.
Arnold is averaging almost five targets per game in his healthy games this season. This week, he’s facing a 25th-ranked Seahawks pass defense. With the Seahawks being fairly stout (11th) against the rush, this will likely force Jacksonville to the air.
Arnold is exactly the kind of player we like to target at tight end for cash games. Tight end production, in general, is hard to predict — since it’s so touchdown dependent — so why not take the cheaper options? It only takes a couple catches for Arnold to post a score that is good enough at his price.
Arnold, of course, won’t be winning you any tournaments. At least not by virtue of the points he scores. The savings you get rostering him could allow you to get up to the stud at a different position who blows the slate open.
Arnold leads all tight ends in Pts/Sal and Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings this week.
Other Tight Ends With Week-Winning Upside
Kyle Pitts ($6,300 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel): Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) vs. Carolina Panthers(46 total)
After some brief rookie struggles, Pitts has exploded the past two weeks. His consecutive 26+ point games are unheard of for tight ends not named Kelce. He’s the most expensive option this week, but for good reason. Pitts is a major mismatch for opposing defenses. At 6’6” and 245 lbs, he’s way too big for cornerbacks. His sub-4.5 second 40-yard dash time makes it hard for linebackers to keep up with him too. Pitts seemed to have figured the NFL game out the last couple of weeks — a scary thought for NFL defenses and fantasy players who fade him alike.
Mike Gesicki ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel): Miami Dolphins (+13.5) at Buffalo Bills (49.4 total)
While he doesn’t get the attention, Mike Gesicki has essentially equal measurable to Pitts. He’s also 6’6” and 245 lbs while running only a slightly slower 40-yard dash (4.54 seconds) coming out of college. Like Pitts, he’s basically a huge wide receiver we get to play in the tight end spot. Not being drafted at the top of the first round keeps us from thinking of Gesicki the same way, but he’s a similar player.
Gesicki has scored more PPR points this season than any other tight end on the slate — but is only fifth in DraftKings salary. He’s been even better with Tua Tagovailoa back too, he’s gone over 20 DraftKings points and had his two best games in the two weeks since Tua returned to the lineup. With the Dolphins likely to trail (and thus, throw) for most of the game Sunday, Gesicki is a top option.
Dallas Goedert ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel): Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Detroit Lions (47.5 total)
Week one of the post-Ertz era didn’t exactly go as planned for the Eagles’ new tight end. He saw only five targets, catching three of them. Those three catches combining for 70 yards was a good sign, though. His longest reception was 25 yards — meaning they all went for at least 20.
This week against a much worse Lions defense, things could go better for Goedert. He should be thought of as a top-10 tight end going forward this season, but particularly against a bottom-five passing defense.
