The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Center
Top Play
Auston Matthews ($8,500 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) at Chicago Blackhawks
It’s tight at the top of the projections for tonight as Auston Matthews, Connor McDavid, and Leon Draisaitl all project with very similar Ceiling Projections in the FantasyLabs Models for tonight. While McDavid has the best ceiling of the three in the projections, it is actually Matthews who is the clear-cut favorite of the Projected Points Model for both big sites today — and that’s who I’ll side with here as well. Matthews leads the center group in long-term shots on goal + blocked shots per game (at 5.32 per game) and also has the best opponent on the slate in Chicago.
The Blackhawks rate out at +2.1 in the Opponent Plus/Minus indicator on FantasyLabs, giving Matthews a boost in projection in this spot. Still, one of the big attractions in going with Matthews over McDavid here is the price. Matthews is $500 cheaper on DraftKings and a full $1,000 cheaper on FanDuel. We’d often see the roles reversed last season, a year where Matthews outscored and outshot McDavid over the year, so now that we’re seeing the situation flip, we should likely start siding with Matthews, the top fantasy player from last season.
Matthews has a solid matchup, is coming off a game where he potted his first goal of the year, and faces a Blackhawks team who ranks in the bottom half of the league in terms of scoring chances allowed in the new season. Matthews is likely to get the lower ownership of the elite two centers but makes for the best upside pick for tonight.
Top Value
Patrice Bergeron ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel) at Florida Panthers
Patrice Bergeron is an elite value tonight where he is somehow under $6,000 on DraftKings. The Bruins center still ranks out in the top 10% for shots on net and blocked shots among centers in the Pro Trends on FantasyLabs and has the highest rating of the night in the Projected Points Model for DraftKings as well.
The Bruins take on the Panthers, who don’t grade out as the best matchup, but Bergeron and the Bruins have been heating up of late with four goals in their last two games — and Bergeron with three assists over that same span. Bergeron ranks second on the slate in blocked shots + shots on goal over the last 12 months and is also fifth in powerplay time per game at his position over that span.
Considering how well Florida has started the year, we should expect Bergeron to perhaps even be a little under-rostered relative to how cheap he is. Pairing him with another elite center will leave you in a great spot for starting lineups today, so try and squeeze him in if you can.
Wing
Top Play
Alex Ovechkin ($8,200 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Red Wings
At this point, there’s not much reason to consider fading Alex Ovechkin or this first-line Capitals stack for DFS purposes. Ovechkin rates out in the top 1% of shots on goal in the Pro Trends for his position and top 5% for blocked shots. He’s doing everything right now for the Capitals and looks set on bringing the Capitals back to playoff glory.
Ovechkin is tied in Ceiling Projection with David Pastrnak on FanDuel but is significantly above him on DraftKings, which is a better value. The kicker here, though, is the opponent in Detroit, which again upgrades Ovechkin’s outlook. Detroit has the eighth-worst penalty-kill heading into this game and has allowed 12 goals against now over their last four games.
Ovechkin is a better option on DraftKings today for sure, but against a weak opponent, you could consider using him and the Capitals L1 together too on all sites. The upside is massive right now with this crew.
Top Value
Reilly Smith ($4,900 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) at Dallas Stars
Smith’s fantasy production and long-term outlook has taken a considerable step upwards with the injury issues on the wing the Golden Knights are currently facing. Smith is currently trending in the top 5% for shots on goal, over the last month, at his position, and is averaging 3.75 shots on net per game so far on the year.
Smith’s role as a top-line winger is intact for the near-term future, and he rates out with a huge 94% Bargain Rating on FanDuel today, where he also tops the Player Ratings in the Projected Points Model. His usage and short-term production means he can be played on both sites and is easy to stack with winger Jonathan Marchessault too, who himself remains decently priced.
Defense
Top Play
Darnell Nurse ($6,200 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Flyers
The Oilers take on the Flyers today, and you’ll definitely want some exposure to this team as they head into the slate, with the largest implied puck total at 3.8. The Oilers’ defensemen often aren’t talked about enough for fantasy purposes. Still, Edmonton has two or three playable targets a night at the moment, and a couple look unpriced on this slate. Darnell Nurse tops the Player Ratings on FanDuel in this spot where he has a 94% Bargain Rating. On FanDuel, he is an easy-to-fit in sub-$6,000 salary, but he’s also trending well on DraftKings, where he sits second in Ceiling Projection.
The Flyers have allowed over 33 shots against per game this year and rate out as a positive opponent here for Nurse’s position. For his part, Nurse brings super consistency as he’s one of only two defensemen on the slate who average over 4.5 blocked shots + shots on goal, and he also tops the Consistency Rating in the Projected Points Model.
This is a good spot to pay up for the D-man who had 16 goals last year and is due for some puck luck soon in 2021-2022.
Top Value
Evan Bouchard ($4,300 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Another Oiler you’ll want to look closely at on the back-end is Evan Bouchard. He is getting solid usage and minutes that include powerplay exposure. Bouchard has also been a maestro at getting his shot through as he’s now averaging 2.74 shots on net per game, which puts him fifth in this metric among all defensemen on this slate and ahead of teammate Tyson Barrie.
Bouchard and Nurse are actually joined together as a pairing (the Oilers top pairing), so there’s even reason to think about using a defenseman stack here as the two also go out together often on the powerplay now for Edmonton. The young defenseman rates out with an 89% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, but he’s inside the top eight on both sites in terms of Player Ratings.
Keep targeting him until the prices rise.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Braden Holtby ($7,800 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel) vs. Vegas Golden Knights
Braden Holtby comes into this game as a -145 home favorite against a Vegas Golden Knights team who may be looking to give backup Laurent Brossoit a start. Holtby has been a revelation in this new season, compiling save percentages of .926 or better in four of his five starts. While he semi-bombed his last time out (three goals allowed on 25 shots faced), he’s highly rated tonight and looks to be in a nice upside spot for fantasy.
Holtby is predicted for over 34 saves for Save Prediction tonight (second biggest on the slate) and remains a top-three target in both Player Ratings and Ceiling Projections in the Projected Points Model.
He’s also a good leverage play in tournaments as the defensemen and first-liners on Vegas should all be relatively popular plays.
Top Value
Marc Andre-Fleury ($7,400 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
From a GPP perspective, Marc-Andre Fleury looks like a good leverage play here, as we can expect Auston Matthews to be one of the most popular plays on the slate. Fleury doesn’t have the greatest ratings today as his team is a +172 underdog as of writing, but he is projected fourth in Ceiling Projection and is predicted for over 32 saves in this spot.
Those kinds of numbers suggest that an above-average game from Fleury here could lead to a massive night.
When we’re taking underdogs as our GPP plays, we certainly don’t mind highly variable spots, and with the Leafs in town and their skaters sure to be popular, Fleury’s performance here could really tip the scales on which lineups succeed today in tournaments.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
Dallas Stars PP1/L1 – Roope Hintz, Joe Pavelski, Denis Gurianov
The Stars’ skill players have all got off to slow starts, and while the short-term form isn’t something to ignore, this group is also now a screaming buy in terms of pricing. When we run the Stacks tool in FantasyLabs, the Stars L1 comes in as the highest-rated stack in the Projected Points Model with an under $24,000 combined total.
All three of these Stars forwards average over 2.0 shots on goal per game in long-term form and are connected together at the hip right now for correlation purposes as they see top-line minutes at regular strength but also top PP1 usage. Using Joe Pavelski at the minimum price on DraftKings makes things wide open today in terms of which studs you want to stack, but he’s not even a must play given the shot rate and upside on a player like Gurianov, who hasn’t had less than 2.0 shots on goal in a game this season in his expanded role in the new season.
The opponent here isn’t irrelevant, but it is worth noting that the banged-up Golden Knights have also been more lax on defense than usual in the new season and have given up the fifth-most scoring chances against on the year thus far.
Keep stacking the cheap Stars here as they remain very underpriced, despite the slow start.
