Week 7 is shaping up to be an exciting slate, with a few high-powered offenses squaring off and several matchups with extreme blowout potential.
Check out a few games to target in Week 7, and a few you might want to proceed with caution.
Also, don’t forget to check out our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models.
Games to Target
Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans
By far and away, the Week 7 matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tennessee Titans has the highest total on the slate, opening with a 56.5-point total. A weak spot in the matchup looks to be on the defense side for both teams. The Chiefs defense rate as the worst in DVOA, according to Football Outsiders and the Titans, rank 26th, respectively.
Featuring high-powered offenses, quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Ryan Tannehill should have no problem moving the ball down the field, leading the sixth-ranked Chiefs offense and 11th-ranked Titans offense, respectively. Look for the receiving corps of Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Julio Jones, A.J. Brown and Derrick Henry to have the potential for ceiling performances, especially with a 4.5-point spread tilting toward the Chiefs.
Expect Tennessee and Tannehill to increase their balanced 54%/46% approach to lean more toward a pass-heavy script. A downside to the Titans offense looks to be their pace, with Tennessee playing at the 11th slowest, according to the RotoViz Pace and Snap tool, averaging a play every 26.8 seconds per play.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
According to PFF, this Week 7 AFC North matchup between Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens features two of the top-graded offenses in the league. Despite one of the slower teams in the league, averaging 30.1 seconds per snap, the sixth-ranked Cincinnati Bengals will likely depend on Joe Burrow to increase their balanced 56%/46% pass-to-run play-calling scheme to feature a more pass-heavy approach, especially facing a Baltimore Ravens defense ranked 20th in pass DVOA, as a 6.5-point underdog.
Baltimore’s offense funnels completely through their dual-threat Lamar Jackson, who looks to have a more difficult matchup against a seventh-ranked Cincinnati Bengals defense. Jackson should also benefit from a Bengals pass defense, which is ranked 12th and should involve primary weapons Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews as part of their balanced 54%/46% pass-to-run play calling script. Jackson, the team leader in carries, should lead on a 28.6 second per snap pace, the fifth-slowest to run the clock if leading in the fourth quarter. Running backs Latavius Murray, Devonta Freeman and Le’Veon Bell should all factor into the clock-killing game script also, should the Ravens take a commanding lead.
With a game total of 47.5-points, both offenses have the potential to create a shootout, despite the lack of pace from both offenses, ranking toward the bottom in seconds per snap.
Proceed with Caution
New York Jets at New England Patriots
A matchup from Week 2, resulting in a 25-6 Patriots win, this AFC East matchup for Week 7 opened with a 43-point total, the lowest on the main slate.
According to PFF, both Jets and Patriots offenses leave a lot to be desired, ranking 30th and 15th, featuring two rookie quarterbacks in Zach Wilson and Mac Jones.
The Jets play at a 25.9 second per snap pace and use a pass-heavy 65%/35% pass-to-run play calling script; however, Wilson has the second-lowest pass completion rate in the league at 57.3%, which looks to be a less-than-ideal and may add to New York’s woes on offense. The Week 7 matchup also does not benefit the Jets, facing a Patriots defense ranked 11th in DVOA.
The Patriots use Jones’ effectiveness, ranking fourth in the league with a 71% completion rate, to their advantage. New England prefers a pass-first 65%/35% pass-to-run play-calling scheme, ranking 15th in pace, calling a play on average every 26.3 seconds. New York ranks 18th in DVOA, which might cause trouble for the rookie quarterback. The Patriots may also increase their run frequency, especially as 7-point favorites, producing more touches for lead running back Damien Harris.
Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals
In what looks to be a lopsided game this week, the Houston Texans are implied to score only 15 points against an Arizona Cardinals defense ranked sixth in DVOA. According to PFF, the Texans also grade out as the worst offense, relying on rookie quarterback Davis Mills to run to the 13th-fastest pace, averaging a play every 25.8 seconds. In a slightly-skewed 56%/44% pass-to-run play-calling script, look for Mills to target wide receiver Brandin Cook almost extensively, leading the team with a 32% target share and should be forced to increase the pass frequency if the matchup should stay competitive.
According to PFF, Arizona and quarterback Kyler Murray see a prime matchup in Week 7, facing a Texans defense that ranks 27th. In leading the seventh-ranked offense, Murray uses a slightly skewed 54%/46% pass-to-run split, playing at the eighth-slowest pace and calling a play every 27.9 seconds. Look for the Cardinals to keep things interesting, ranking second in no-huddle rate, which should allow the high-powered offense to move down the field against a weak defense. With extreme blowout potential, running backs Chase Edmonds and James Conner should see an increase in production, further slowing the pace in a clock-killing scenario.
