When it comes to NFL player prop projections, there is simply no one better than our own Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner.
Using his projections in our Player Props Tool on Action Labs, we can easily identify the biggest advantages to help build our bankroll. Each week, I’ll identify which Monday Night Football props on PrizePicks have the most value when compared with Sean’s projections.
Let’s take a closer look at tonight’s matchup between the Bills and Titans.
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NFL Prop Picks for Monday Night Football
Stefon Diggs Under 7 Receptions
Reaching eight receptions in an NFL game is difficult for any NFL wide receiver, even if they are fully healthy. An average of eight receptions per game puts the player on pace for 128 receptions in a 16-game season. Over the past three seasons, only one wide receiver (Michael Thomas, 2019) has exceeded this total. Even in Diggs spectacular 2020 season, he still fell one reception short of reaching that total.
In his 21 games in Buffalo, Diggs has only hit this number six times (28.5%), and just once this season. Tennessee will need to limit Diggs to have any chance of winning this game. I expect a methodical offensive attack that will try to keep the Buffalo offense off the field as much as possible.
I’m taking the under on this seven-reception prop, knowing that Diggs must tally eight receptions to beat me. The total at most books is 6.5 receptions, giving us extra value for the push. This is a 7-rated play on Sean Koerner’s Player Prop Tool at FantasyLabs.
Derrick Henry Over 13.5 Receiving Yards
Henry has become more involved in the passing game this season, having beat this total in four of the past five games. While he tallied zero receiving yards in Week 5 against the Jaguars, that was a direct result of positive game script.
Buffalo has allowed the fewest receiving yards and fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. The Titans will need to get creative on offense, especially with top receiver A.J. Brown downgraded to questionable on Sunday with an illness.
Henry actually ranks 16th among all running backs in receiving yards (125) entering Week 6. That is already a higher total than his entire mark (114) for the 2020 season.
With a FantasyLabs mean receiving total of 15 yards, we are taking the over on Henry’s receiving prop, as we expect Tennessee to use Henry in every possible way to beat Buffalo.
Zack Moss Over 46.5 Rushing Yards
Zack Moss has become Buffalo’s clear RB1, increasing his snap share in each of the past three weeks. He has also averaged almost 13 carries per game since Week 2, with a 4.0 yards per carry average for the season.
Tennessee’s run defense ranks 27th in DVOA per FootballOutsiders, and will need to try to limit a Buffalo passing attack that just posted 315 yards and three passing touchdowns at Kansas City.
The Bills rank 11th best in rushing efficiency, and Moss averaged 4.5 combined yards per carry against Houston and Washington.
I like Moss’ opportunity and matchup in a Monday Night Football battle against a poor Tennessee defense.
