NFL Week 6 features a 10-game main slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays at each position using the FantasyLabs Tools.
Quarterback
Stud
The Chiefs have had plenty of problems to start the season, but Patrick Mahomes has not been one of them. He has struggled a bit with turnovers – his six interceptions were as many as he had in 15 games last season – but his passing production is nearly unmatched from a fantasy perspective. He’s averaging just under 300 yards and more than three touchdown passes per game, and he’s scored at least 21.98 DraftKings points in all five of his outings. Overall, no one in fantasy has scored more points than him through the first five weeks.
He should continue his success vs. the Football Team. Washington was expected to have a strong defense this season, but they have not lived up to the billing. They rank just 29th in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, giving Mahomes an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.6 on DraftKings.
Mahomes also stands out from a Vegas perspective. The total on this contest sits at 54.5, which is easily the top mark on the slate. The Chiefs are also favored by seven points, giving Mahomes an implied team total of 30.75. Paying up for a stud quarterback is not always easy, but there are plenty of reasons to try and do it this week.
Value
If you can’t afford Mahomes, Taylor Heinicke is a nice consolation prize on the other side of that matchup. As bad as the Football Team’s defense has been this season, the Chiefs’ has been lightyears worse. They rank dead last in defensive DVOA, and Heinicke leads all players with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +9.0 on DraftKings.
Heinicke has also been an excellent value for most of the year. He struggled last week vs. the Saints, finishing with just 11.92 DraftKings points, but he racked up at least 23.38 DraftKings points in his previous three starts. He also brings a bit of rushing upside to the table, which is a huge plus for fantasy purposes.
He’s simply too cheap across the industry, considering his matchup.
Quick Hits
Kyler Murray is coming off his worst start of the season last week, which makes him an excellent buy-low target on FanDuel. He’s projected for less than 5% ownership, and his $8,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
The game between the Giants and Rams could have some sneaky shootout potential. The Rams have played at the fastest pace in neutral game scripts this season, and they own the second-highest implied team total on the slate. Billy Ward breaks down why Matthew Stafford deserves some consideration at the position in this week’s Quarterback Breakdown.
We’ve known about Lamar Jackson’s ability as a rusher for a while now, but he’s taken massive strides as a passer this season. The Ravens are airing it out at a much higher rate than in years past, and Jackson has impressed with his arm. He’s coming off arguably the best passing game of his career last week vs. the Colts, racking up 442 yards and four touchdowns. He owns the top Ceiling Projection at the position in our NFL Models.
Running Back
Stud
This is an interesting week at running back. A bunch of key names are missing due to bye weeks and injuries, and countless others are dealing with questionable designations. That makes the pickings at the top a bit slim.
Kareem Hunt is one of the questionable players, but he is fully expected to suit up vs. the Cardinals. Nick Chubb has already been ruled out, so Hunt has the potential to operate as the Browns’ lead back for the first time all season.
That should make your mouth water. The Browns boast arguably the best rushing attack in the league, and they’ve rushed for at least 184 yards in each of their past three games. Hunt has averaged a career-best 5.4 yards per attempt so far this season, but he’s been limited to an average of 11 carries per game. If he can grab the lion’s share of the carries, he has the potential for a massive performance.
The only real concern with Hunt is his likely high projected ownership. He’s projected for around 40% on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and it can be tempting to fade those players in GPPs. Just keep in mind that the chalk running backs are chalk because they’re the strongest plays on the slate. Players projected for at least 26% ownership at running back have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.90 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool). I think playing Hunt and looking to diversify your lineups with a contrarian stack or RB2 is your best bet.
Value
Darrel Williams should be another popular play at running back, especially on FanDuel, given his Bargain Rating of 93%. Clyde Edwards-Helaire will miss some time for the Chiefs, which leaves Williams as their primary ball carrier. Jerick McKinnon will steal some work on passing downs, but Williams should have most of the rushing opportunities to himself. That includes the high-value touches near the goal line.
He should also benefit from the game script. The Chiefs are seven-point favorites vs. the Football Team, and large favorites tend to do well at running back. Cheap running backs like Williams have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.82 on FanDuel when favored by at least a touchdown.
Quick Hits
Darrell Henderson and Jonathan Taylor are two other players who fit the bill as large favorites. Henderson is an elite option on DraftKings given his 95% Bargain Rating, and he also owns an above-average matchup given his +3.8 Opponent Plus/Minus. Meanwhile, Taylor leads the position with 11 Pro Trends.
Khalil Herbert stands out as another excellent value option The Bears will be without David Montgomery and Damien Williams, and they have run the ball a ton with Justin Fields under center. He ranks second at the position in terms of projected Plus/Minus, making him an awesome target for cash games.
Antonio Gibson is one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel, where his $6,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. Billy Ward makes the case for Gibson in this week’s Running Back Breakdown.
Joe Mixon has arguably the best matchup of the week vs. the Lions, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.2 on DraftKings. He’s currently questionable, but head coach Zac Taylor has already suggested that he will receive his usual workload. That gives him solid upside.
The Cowboys’ rushing attack is back. Their offensive line has created some massive this season, and Ezekiel Elliott has taken advantage. He’s scored at least 23.3 DraftKings points in three straight weeks, giving him one of the top ceilings at the position. He’s also projected for less than 10% ownership on DraftKings, where his $7,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Wide Receiver
Stud
You don’t need to spend up at running back this week, so consider putting those savings towards Davante Adams. He is the clear alpha wide receiver at the moment, and frankly, it’s not even that close. He’s racked up 35.9% of the Packers’ targets so far this season, and he’s been particularly active over the past three weeks. He’s seen at least 11 targets in each of those contests, including at least 16 in two of them.
The only thing he hasn’t done a ton of this season is score touchdowns. He’s managed just two through the first five weeks after scoring a league-leading 18 times last year. That makes him a prime candidate for some positive regression. He hasn’t been as heavily featured in the red zone as he was last year, but he’s still a major threat in that area.
The scary thing is that Adams is the No. 4 receiver in PPR formats despite his limited touchdown production. The three players in front of him have averaged five receiving touchdowns this season, so Adams is going to rocket past them when he starts scoring.
Value
Injuries could play an important role at receiver. There are some big names currently listed as questionable.
Mike Williams is one of those players, and there’s a good chance he sits out for the Chargers. He has yet to practice this week, and players very rarely play without logging at least one practice.
If he’s ruled out, Keenan Allen would become an excellent option. Allen already leads the Chargers in targets, but Williams has racked up 51 targets through the first five games. A few of those would likely find their way to Allen.
He would also likely see a bump in the red zone. Allen has managed just one receiving touchdown through the first five weeks, while Williams leads the league with six scores. If he can add some increased scoring potential to his large target share, Allen has the potential for a huge game.
Quick Hits
The Rams have a trio of viable wide receivers in Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Van Jefferson. Billy Ward breaks down why all three players are in play in this week’s Wide Receiver Breakdown.
If Brandin Cooks was a Greek god, he’d be known as the God of Air Yards. No player has racked up a higher percentage of his team’s intended air yards this season (49.45%), which gives him plenty of upside. The Texans’ passing attack has been subpar for most of the year, but Davis Mills is coming off the best game of his career last week vs. the Patriots.
Ja’Marr Chase has established himself as the clear WR1 for the Bengals, but there’s still room for Tee Higgins to be a factor. He had seven targets last week following a two-game injury absence, and he’s very affordable across the industry. The Lions have arguably the worst trio of cornerbacks in the entire league, so Higgins, Chase, and Tyler Boyd all have massive advantages per Pro Football Focus.
The Packers’ cornerbacks are also very unintimidating with Jaire Alexander currently sidelined. That’s great news for Darnell Mooney, especially since Allen Robinson is listed as questionable. If Robinson is ruled out, Mooney becomes one of the best values at the position at just $4,300 on DraftKings.
Tight End
Stud
Travis Kelce discount alert! Kelce has been priced down to just $7,000 on DraftKings, which is cheaper than he’s been all season. He’s actually been priced above $8,000 in four of his first five games, so his current salary represents a significant source of savings.
With that in mind, you’d expect his game log to be lacking, but that isn’t really the case. He did have a quiet game two weeks ago vs. the Eagles, but he bounced back with 10 targets, six catches, 57 yards, and a touchdown last week. That may not be a massive performance, but 17.7 DraftKings points would be the best game of the year for many tight ends.
As usual, PFF gives Kelce the largest mismatch at the tight end position, and he leads all tight ends in a variety of metrics in our NFL Models. He’s a priority target.
Value
This could actually be a good week to go with multiple tight ends in your cash lineup. Ricky Seals-Jones is priced at just $3,000 on DraftKings, making him one of the best pure values on the slate. He played on 82 of 83 possible snaps last week for the Football Team, and he racked up eight targets. He finished with 9.1 DraftKings points, which was more than enough to return value at his minimal salary.
Now, he draws arguably the best possible matchup at the tight end position. The Chiefs have allowed 86.9 yards per game to opposing tight ends, which is the worst mark in the league. They rank just 27th in DVOA vs. the position, and RSJ owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.3 on DraftKings.
It may feel weird to lock two tight ends into your lineups, but Kelce and RSJ would stand out as excellent values even if they were listed as wide receivers. Both players own a projected Plus/Minus of greater than 3.0 on DraftKings, and no wide receiver has a mark of better than +2.3.
Quick Hits
Mark Andrews is the other potential stud option, and he might be a better pure value on FanDuel. Billy Ward highlights Andrews in this week’s Tight End Breakdown.
Noah Fant struggled last week vs. the Steelers, which caused his price tag to drop slightly vs. the Raiders. That said, he saw 10 targets in his previous contest, and the Raiders rank merely 25th in DVOA vs. tight ends this season. This is an excellent bounce-back spot.
With most of the attention being placed on Henderson and the Rams wide receivers, Tyler Higbee could fly a bit under the radar. He’s currently projected for less than three percent ownership on DraftKings, making him an excellent contrarian option for tournaments.
Lineup Construction
It feels like there’s a ton of value available this week – particularly at running back – but building cash game lineups is still a bit tougher than expected. Wide receiver feels very thin once you get below $5,000 or so on DraftKings, so you’re going to have to sacrifice elsewhere if you want to feel secure at all three spots.
The obvious first step is to lock in Kareem Hunt. He stands out as the best play of the week regardless of position, so you need to have him in your lineups.
After that, you have to decide how you want to approach the flex spot. If you’re willing to go with the double tight end route and roster Kelce and Seals-Jones, the rest of your roster comes together pretty easily. You can go with Khalil Herbert at RB2 and Heinicke at quarterback, which allows you to spend up at wide receiver.
If you’re not willing to use Seals-Jones at flex, I would still recommend using Kelce over him at tight end. You can replace him with someone like Darrel Williams as your third running back alongside Hunt and Herbert, and those lineups also have plenty of merit. The big difference is that you likely can’t fit Adams as your WR1, but you can still build a strong group of receivers.
Building a lineup on FanDuel is slightly easier. The biggest difference is that your priority should shift from Kelce to Adams. Adams owns a Bargain Rating of 99% on FanDuel, so he’s the must-play cash option alongside Hunt.
Michael Pittman is also an excellent source of value at wide receiver on FanDuel. He owns the second-highest projected Plus/Minus at the position, trailing only Adams, so pairing those two players together makes a lot of sense.
As far as GPPs, you can utilize our NFL Models to identify some potentially overlooked targets. We do ownership projections for every player, and our Leverage Rating compares those projected ownerships to each player’s projected ceiling. If a player has a high ceiling but low projected ownership, they will have a strong Leverage Rating. Those types of players are ideal in tournaments.
Ryan Hodge, Justin Bailey, and Mike Randle do a great job of identifying some high upside GPP targets in their Concise Convictions, Small-Field GPP Strategy, and Top Stacks articles.
Good luck this week!
