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MLB DFS Breakdown (Oct. 16): Use Dodgers-Braves for Pitching, Red Sox-Astros for Offense

mlb-dfs-max fried

Saturday’s main slate features two games starting at 4:20 p.m. ET. We will be using the FantasyLabs Player Models to highlight some of the top options to consider.

Pitchers

The four pitchers projected to score the most fantasy points today in order are:

  1. Max Scherzer (R)
  2. L. H. Garcia (R)
  3. Nathan Eovaldi (R)
  4. Max Fried (L)

Editor’s note: Corey Knebel is getting the start over Max Scherzer. Be sure to check the Player Models for updated projections.

The highest priced pitcher on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel is Max Scherzer from the Los Angeles Dodgers. This will be Scherzer’s fourth appearance in the 2021 postseason as he has thrown a total of 12.1 innings. In those innings, Scherzer allowed only six hits against, two earned runs, and struck out 16.

Today, he will be on the hill against the Atlanta Braves who are projected for the lowest implied runs total on the slate (3.8 runs). A projected 13-mph wind blowing out to center field will favor batters in this game, however only if they are able to make contact against Scherzer, who is in a nice spot today.

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The highest rated pitcher in the Bales Model for both DraftKings and FanDuel today is L. H. Garcia from the Houston Astros. Garcia struggled mightily in his one October outing this year and will be looking to rebound tonight. In that outing against the Chicago White Sox, Garcia allowed eight base runners in 2.2 innings and five earned runs. To say the least, Garcia did not have his “A game” six days ago. Today, he will be pitching against the Boston Red Sox in game two of the ALCS. The Astros won game one yesterday and winning today would be huge for the team’s confidence.

The pitcher on the opposite side of the diamond from Garcia will be Nathan Eovaldi from the Boston Red Sox. Eovaldi has made two postseason appearances this year and has been stellar in both. In 10.1 innings, he allowed only three earned runs, seven hits, and struck out 16 batters. Eovaldi has been the Red Sox most reliable pitcher in the rotation and in a pivotal game today, Boston will him again. In his one start against the Astros this season, Eovaldi struggled. He allowed 14 base runners, five earned runs, and only struck out five. In order to even the series at a game apiece, Eovaldi will need a much better performance today.

Rounding out the starting pitchers available to pick from today is Max Fried from the Atlanta Braves. The Braves are home underdogs today (+118) as they take on the visiting Dodgers. Fried has been absolutely electric in his last four outings. Over his last 29 innings, Fried has allowed only 13 hits, one earned run, and struck out 24. Due to his extreme success, I am a bit surprised that the Braves are underdogs today, but the Dodgers do have a loaded lineup. This game has all the makings of a pitchers’ duel as Fried is much more of a value option based off his low price.

I would consider rostering both Scherzer and Fried.

Hitters

Notable Stack

Today’s top projected points stack comes to you from the -114 Houston Astros:

  • Michael Brantley (L)
  • Alex Bregman (R)
  • Yordan Alverez (L)
  • Yulieski Gurriel (R)

The Astros are projected for the highest implied runs total on the slate today (4.4 runs). On FanDuel, this stack will cost you $11.5k in salary and are projected for a combined 44 fantasy points. As previously mentioned, the Astros have found success against Eovaldi in the past. Another reason to back the Astros is that they are playing in front of their home fans. This year the Astros were 51-30 at home which is one of the best home records in baseball. The Astros also have the highest value rating (62).

Other Hitters

The player I cannot complete this article without talking about is Mookie Betts from the Los Angeles Dodgers. In a win or go home game five against the Giants, Betts went 4-4 with a stolen base. In six postseason games this year, Betts has four games in which he has had multi-hit games. Betts is projected to bat leadoff again tonight against Fried and the Braves, and I highly recommend rostering one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now.

Value

Lastly, here are a handful of batters to consider while completing your lineups today that are projected for a high fantasy points/salary:

  • Joc Pederson
  • Justin Turner
  • Will Smith
  • Xander Bogaerts
  • Hunter Renfroe

Photo Credit: Stacy Revere/Getty Images
Pictured: Max Fried

Saturday’s main slate features two games starting at 4:20 p.m. ET. We will be using the FantasyLabs Player Models to highlight some of the top options to consider.

Pitchers

The four pitchers projected to score the most fantasy points today in order are:

  1. Max Scherzer (R)
  2. L. H. Garcia (R)
  3. Nathan Eovaldi (R)
  4. Max Fried (L)

Editor’s note: Corey Knebel is getting the start over Max Scherzer. Be sure to check the Player Models for updated projections.

The highest priced pitcher on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel is Max Scherzer from the Los Angeles Dodgers. This will be Scherzer’s fourth appearance in the 2021 postseason as he has thrown a total of 12.1 innings. In those innings, Scherzer allowed only six hits against, two earned runs, and struck out 16.

Today, he will be on the hill against the Atlanta Braves who are projected for the lowest implied runs total on the slate (3.8 runs). A projected 13-mph wind blowing out to center field will favor batters in this game, however only if they are able to make contact against Scherzer, who is in a nice spot today.

Start Your PRO Trial Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

The highest rated pitcher in the Bales Model for both DraftKings and FanDuel today is L. H. Garcia from the Houston Astros. Garcia struggled mightily in his one October outing this year and will be looking to rebound tonight. In that outing against the Chicago White Sox, Garcia allowed eight base runners in 2.2 innings and five earned runs. To say the least, Garcia did not have his “A game” six days ago. Today, he will be pitching against the Boston Red Sox in game two of the ALCS. The Astros won game one yesterday and winning today would be huge for the team’s confidence.

The pitcher on the opposite side of the diamond from Garcia will be Nathan Eovaldi from the Boston Red Sox. Eovaldi has made two postseason appearances this year and has been stellar in both. In 10.1 innings, he allowed only three earned runs, seven hits, and struck out 16 batters. Eovaldi has been the Red Sox most reliable pitcher in the rotation and in a pivotal game today, Boston will him again. In his one start against the Astros this season, Eovaldi struggled. He allowed 14 base runners, five earned runs, and only struck out five. In order to even the series at a game apiece, Eovaldi will need a much better performance today.

Rounding out the starting pitchers available to pick from today is Max Fried from the Atlanta Braves. The Braves are home underdogs today (+118) as they take on the visiting Dodgers. Fried has been absolutely electric in his last four outings. Over his last 29 innings, Fried has allowed only 13 hits, one earned run, and struck out 24. Due to his extreme success, I am a bit surprised that the Braves are underdogs today, but the Dodgers do have a loaded lineup. This game has all the makings of a pitchers’ duel as Fried is much more of a value option based off his low price.

I would consider rostering both Scherzer and Fried.

Hitters

Notable Stack

Today’s top projected points stack comes to you from the -114 Houston Astros:

  • Michael Brantley (L)
  • Alex Bregman (R)
  • Yordan Alverez (L)
  • Yulieski Gurriel (R)

The Astros are projected for the highest implied runs total on the slate today (4.4 runs). On FanDuel, this stack will cost you $11.5k in salary and are projected for a combined 44 fantasy points. As previously mentioned, the Astros have found success against Eovaldi in the past. Another reason to back the Astros is that they are playing in front of their home fans. This year the Astros were 51-30 at home which is one of the best home records in baseball. The Astros also have the highest value rating (62).

Other Hitters

The player I cannot complete this article without talking about is Mookie Betts from the Los Angeles Dodgers. In a win or go home game five against the Giants, Betts went 4-4 with a stolen base. In six postseason games this year, Betts has four games in which he has had multi-hit games. Betts is projected to bat leadoff again tonight against Fried and the Braves, and I highly recommend rostering one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now.

Value

Lastly, here are a handful of batters to consider while completing your lineups today that are projected for a high fantasy points/salary:

  • Joc Pederson
  • Justin Turner
  • Will Smith
  • Xander Bogaerts
  • Hunter Renfroe

Photo Credit: Stacy Revere/Getty Images
Pictured: Max Fried