Monkey Knife Fight takes a new spin on daily fantasy, combining player props and parlays. With exciting contest structures, put your football knowledge to the test and pit player performances against one another.
Check out a few picks to consider in this exciting format for Week 5 with the help of our NFL Player Props Tool.
More or Less 2/3 –Kyler Murray Passing Yards (284.5) vs. Trey Lance Passing Yards (215.5) vs. DeAndre Hopkins Receiving Yards (75.5)
I’m opting to go with the Pick 2/3 structure in the More or Less contests, giving flexibility if a player does not have a stellar outing.
Kyler Murray is one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the league and ranks as the most efficient, completing 76% of his passes. After the first month, Murray ranks fourth in passing yards, throwing for 1,273 yards and nine touchdowns, reaching the 286-yard mark three times this year. In a tough NFC West battle, Murray faces a tough San Francisco 49ers defense that grades out as the 11th-best defense, according to PFF.
Pace also seems to be a consideration in this matchup. The Cardinals and 49ers rank toward the bottom of the league in seconds per snap, with the Cardinals averaging 28 seconds and 49ers averaging 26.5 seconds, respectively (According to the RotoViz Pace App). In a less-than-ideal matchup, Murray might have a difficult time exceeding the 286-yard mark.
We’re projecting Murray to throw for 273.5 yards in his return, trending toward the under.
With quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo out for the Week 5 matchup against the Cardinals, rookie quarterback Trey Lance will take over under-center duties. Coming in for the injured Garoppolo in a Week 4 28-21 loss to the Seattle Seahawks, Lance threw for 157 yards, completing 50% of his passes with two touchdowns. According to PFF, Lance will face a tough Cardinals defense, which grades out as the ninth-best defense, but as 4.5-point underdogs, expect an uptick in their slightly pass-skewed 56%/44% play-calling scheme. With George Kittle listed as doubtful, Deebo Samuel might see an additional allotment of targets, currently leading the 49ers receiving corps with a 32% target share. Our models project Lance to throw for 230.5 yards, easily reaching the over.
If Kyler Murray has a less-than-stellar day Sunday, except Cardinals wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins to be affected in his performance, too. Hopkins leads the Cardinals with a 19% target share, seeing five or more targets in three of the four games this year. Known for his big-play ability, Hopkins has averaged 12.4 receiving yards per reception but has only reached the 76-receiving yard mark eight times.
Our Player Props Tool projects Hopkins for 70.3 receiving yards, slightly under the 75.5 receiving yards mark.
The Pick: Kyler Murray Less 284.5 passing yards, Trey Lance More 215.5 passing yards, DeAndre Hopkins Less 75.5 Receiving Yards
Rapidfire 2/2 – Sam Darnold vs. Jalen Hurts (+19.5) Passing Yards | DJ Moore vs. DeVonta Smith (+31.5) receiving yards
Sam Darnold is having a resurgent season with his new team. In four games this year, Darnold has thrown for more than 300 yards in three games, completing 67% of his passes. Facing an Eagles defense that ranks 22nd in pass DVOA (according to Football Outsiders) should give Darnold the ability to exceed expectations this week. Our models project Darnold to throw for 264.5 yards. Conversely, Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts faces a Carolina Panthers defense ranked fifth in pass DVOA. The stout defense might cause problems for the Eagles’ pass-heavy play-calling scheme but look for Hurt to rely on his receiving corps of DeVonta Smith and Jalen Reagor to help move the ball down the field, especially as 4.5-point underdogs on the road. We’re projecting Hurts to pass for 241.5 yards and losing to Darnold in more passing yards, even with the extra 19.5 points.
Darnold’s preferred target is wide receiver DJ Moore, who leads the Panthers with a 30% target share, seeing 10 or more targets in three of the first four weeks. If Darnold exceeds expectations against a weak Philadelphia Eagles defense, look for Moore to benefit, seeing a 0.96 correlation after four weeks. Moore currently projects for 81.3 receiving yards in a Week 3 matchup with the Eagles.
Like DJ Moore, DeVonta Smith is the leader in the Eagles receiving corps, seeing 22% of the team’s target share, seeing five or more targets in every game this year, including a 10-target performance in a 30-42 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 4. The tough Carolina defense might limit Smith’s performance, and the Panthers’ offense, who ranks as the fifth-slowest in pace, might employ a clock-burning scheme, especially if ahead. However, with Hurts likely to pass more to keep the matchup competitive, look for Smith as the primary weapon. We’re projecting Smith for 51.9 yards, beating out Moore with the +31.5 points.
The Pick: Sam Darnold passing yards, Devonta Smith (+31.5) receiving yards
