NFL Week 5 features a 12-game main slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays at each position using the FantasyLabs Tools.
Quarterback
Stud
You don’t necessarily need to pay up at quarterback this week, but Kyler Murray is certainly a viable option. He’s been a bit quiet over the past two weeks after exploding for at least 34.56 FanDuel points in each of his first two games.
The 49ers are known for being a defensive team, but they haven’t really lived up to that billing so far this season. They rank just 18th in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, and Murray owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.0 on FanDuel.
Murray should also benefit from this game being in Arizona. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.15 in 17 home starts, including a mark of +9.00 as a home favorite (per the Trends tool). That’s a ridiculous mark.
He’s an elite option on FanDuel, where his $8,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Value
Daniel Jones has taken a massive step forward in his third professional season. He currently ranks fifth among quarterbacks in terms of Pro Football Focus grade, and he’s provided excellent fantasy value as well. He’s racked up at least 22.38 DraftKings points in three of four games this season, including at least 29.46 in two of his past three.
Jones has been getting the job done with his arms and his legs. He’s coming off a 400-yard passing performance last week vs. the Saints, and he’s also put together a 95-yard rushing performance this season. Quarterbacks who can pick up points with their legs are cheat codes in fantasy football, and Jones has quietly been one of the best in the business in that department.
He’ll take the field in an excellent spot this week vs. the Cowboys. Their offense has been a juggernaut this season, so the Giants are going to have to score to try and keep up. Overall, Jones owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.6 on DraftKings, which is the second-highest mark at the position.
Quick Hits
Trey Lance will make his first career start this weekend, and he is oozing with fantasy potential. He racked up more than 20 fantasy points in just one half last week, so he clearly has upside against the Cardinals. Billy Ward discusses his appeal further in this week’s Quarterback Breakdown.
The Titans are taking on the Jaguars this week, and they should put up plenty of points in that matchup. Most people will likely gravitate towards their rushing attack, which makes Ryan Tannehill an interesting option in tournaments. His fantasy numbers have been pretty pedestrian to start the year, but he owns the second-highest grade at quarterback per PFF. The Jaguars also rank dead-last in pass defense DVOA, so perhaps this is the week he finally breaks out.
Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins own the highest implied team totals of the week, and both players will take the field as sizable home favorites. Prescott is expected to be popular, but Cousins could fly a bit under the radar. He’s scored at least 25.04 DraftKings points in three of his first four games, and he could easily do it again vs. the Lions.
Running Back
Studs
The Big Dog – aka Derrick Henry – has done plenty of eating so far this season. He racked up a ridiculous 33 carries and two targets last week vs. the Jets, resulting in 177 total yards and one touchdown.
He’s in another potential smash spot this week vs. the Jaguars. The Titans are currently favored by 4.5 points, and Henry has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.03 when favored by at least four points. The Jaguars’ rush defense isn’t nearly as bad as their pass defense, but Henry is as matchup-proof as it gets. The only thing that matters is his number of carries, and he’s expected to see plenty: His current rushing prop is set at more than 111 yards.
Julio Jones will also miss his second-straight week due to a hamstring injury, so Henry could be even more involved than usual. Overall, it’s hard not to let the Big Dog off his leash in this matchup.
If you can’t pay up for Henry, Ezekiel Elliott is a fine consolation prize. The Cowboys’ rushing attack has looked as good as ever over the past two weeks, with Zeke and Tony Pollard both averaging more than six yards per carry.
Pollard remains an annoying thorn in Elliott’s side, but he’s still seen at least 17 carries in back-to-back weeks. He’s also dominated the carries around the goal line, logging five attempts from inside the five-yard line. Pollard has just one carry in that area, so Elliott is the bigger threat for a touchdown.
The Cowboys are also favored by seven points against the Giants, and Zeke has historically averaged more than 22.3 DraftKings points when favored by at least a touchdown. That’s very appealing at just $7,000 on DraftKings.
Value
There was some uncertainty surrounding the Bucs backfield this offseason, but Leonard Fournette has established himself as the clear top running back. He’s racked up 44 rushing attempts through the first four weeks, while Ronald Jones has just 21. The discrepancy was even larger last week, with Fournette logging 20 carries compared to six for Jones.
Fournette is also the better receiver of the two. He’s tallied at least three catches in every game this season, and he saw five targets last week vs. the Patriots. He would see a boost that department if Gio Bernard is ruled out for the second straight week, and he’s currently listed as questionable.
Even if Bernard is active, Fournette is a steal at just $5,200 on DraftKings. The Bucs are currently favored by 10 points vs. the Dolphins, and large favorites tend to crush at running back. The Dolphins also rank just 20th in rush defense DVOA this season, and Fournette’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.7 is one of the top marks at the position.
Quick Hits
The Vikings are also massive favorites this week, and Dalvin Cook is currently questionable to suit up. Alexander Mattison would become the chalk if he’s ruled out, but Cook would be an interesting tournament option if he plays. He’s currently projected for less than 5% ownership, but he has the potential to be one of the highest-scoring players on the slate.
Najee Harris has been a true workhorse for the Steelers this season, logging 55 carries and 34 targets through the first four weeks. He should be a popular option this week, and Billy Ward details why in this week’s Running Back Breakdown.
Chase Edmonds is the perfect example of a modern-day running back. He hasn’t been overused as a runner, accumulating between eight and 12 carries in his first four games, but he makes up for it with his involvement as a pass-catcher. He’s currently questionable with a shoulder injury, but he’s a strong option if he’s able to suit up. He’s a particularly nice value on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 93%.
Damien Williams will draw the start at running back for the Bears this week, and he leads the position in projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel. The Bears have been extremely run-heavy with Justin Fields at quarterback, so expect to see a lot of Williams on Sunday. The Raiders rank 18th in rush defense DVOA, so he has plenty of merit in this matchup.
I will continue to go back to the well with Nick Chubb. He’s been outshined by Kareem Hunt over the past two weeks, but Chubb stands out as an elite GPP option vs. the Chargers. They have been awful against the run to start the season, and Chubb is projected for minimal ownership across the industry. That gives him one of the top Leverage Scores in our NFL Models.
Wide Receiver
Studs
Davante Adams was a major disappointment last week, but his underlying metrics are still outstanding. He saw 11 more targets in Week 4, bringing his total to 45 for the year. Overall, he’s commanded 35% of the team’s passing targets and 38% of their air yards this season.
Adams is in a fantastic bounce-back spot this week vs. the Bengals. Their cornerbacks have all graded out poorly this season, and PFF gives him the second-largest advantage of the week against their trio. Chidobe Awuzie could return following an injury absence, but that still wouldn’t give the Bengals much help vs. Adams.
Adams is also cheaper than usual at just $8,200 on DraftKings, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.68 with a comparable price tag. Overall, he’s about as safe as it gets at the position.
The best matchup of the week actually belongs to Justin Jefferson. He has been one of the best receivers in football since bursting onto the scene as a rookie, and he should have a field day vs. the Lions’ corners.
Jefferson is also on the right side of his home/road splits this week. He’s averaged a ridiculous 23.56 DraftKings points in 10 home games – good for a +8.41 Plus/Minus – but that number drops off to 14.08 on the road. Those will probably even out a bit as he racks up more games, but there’s no denying he’s been a monster when playing in Minnesota.
Value
This stands out as an excellent week to save some money at receiver. There are several sub-$5k options on DraftKings worth consideration.
The Jaguars have two receivers who should garner plenty of attention in Laviska Shenault and Marvin Jones Jr. Jones technically is above $5k, but he’s still very affordable at just $5,700. Both players should see a boost in value with D.J. Chark out of the lineup, and both players bring something different to the table.
Jones has been the Jaguars’ top option to start the year. He leads the team with a 22% target share, and his 27% air yards share is tied for first on the squad. He’s also been Trevor Lawrence’s first read more than any other pass-catcher, and he’s seen four of the team’s five end zone targets. That’s a really impressive collection of underlying metrics.
However, Shenault might be more appealing with Chark out of the lineup. He’s been used primarily around the line of scrimmage to start the year, but his role changed a bit after Chark got injured. He’s averaged just 7.2 intended air yards per target this season, but that number jumped to 12.9 last week. Some of that came on a broken play that Shenault took for 53 yards, but he will almost certainly rack up more air yards with Chark out of the lineup. That makes him very intriguing at just $4,800.
If you’re looking for a pure punt play, consider Curtis Samuel. He’s priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%. Samuel saw four targets last week despite playing on just 25 snaps, and his role should only increase moving forward.
Quick Hits
The Dolphins have already lost Will Fuller to an injury, and now DeVante Parker is questionable vs. the Buccaneers. That would leave Jaylen Waddle as the team’s clear top wide receiver. It remains to be seen if that role can provide any value with Jacoby Brissett under center, but the Buccaneers’ pass defense has been an absolute disaster this year. Things don’t figure to get any better for the Bucs after they played Carlton Davis on IR this week.
CeeDee Lamb came out of the gates red-hot to start the year, but he’s cooled off a bit recently. Billy Ward makes the case for Lamb as a buy-low option in this week’s Wide Receiver Breakdown.
D.J. Moore has vaulted himself into elite fantasy territory with his play to start the year. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his four games, and he’s gone for either 100 receiving yards or a touchdown his past three. He accomplished both in his last game, finishing with eight catches for 113 yards and two scores, and his 12 targets were also tied for a season-high. He draws a strong matchup this week vs. the Eagles, who were just absolutely torched by Tyreek Hill last week. Moore is an elite value on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 94%.
Tight End
Stud
This is one of the weakest slates we’ve seen in terms of tight ends. Travis Kelce is not available on the main slate, while George Kittle is not expected to suit up with an injury. Even Kyle Pitts – who should benefit from an increased target share this week – is not an option on the main slate.
That leaves Darren Waller as basically the lone stud at the position. Unfortunately, his production hasn’t justified his price tag recently. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in three straight games, despite the fact that he found the end zone last week vs. the Chargers.
Paying up for Waller should give you a unique roster construction for GPPs, and he’s expected to carry minimal ownership on DraftKings. That said, there are stronger options available for cash games.
Value
Tyler Conklin stands out as one of the best values at the position. He’s logged 14 targets over the past two weeks, and a high implied team total is typically a good indicator when selecting a value tight end. Players at the position priced between $3,000-$4,000 have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.20 with an implied team total of at least 27.0.
The Lions also stand out as an elite matchup for tight ends. They rank dead-last against opposing tight ends in terms of DVOA, and he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.2 on DraftKings. He’s underpriced across the industry.
Quick Hits
Looking for a pure punt at tight end? Ricky Seals-Jones is priced at the minimum on DraftKings, and Billy Ward breaks him down in this week’s Tight End Breakdown.
Evan Engram owns a Bargain Rating of 97% on DraftKings, and he should benefit from the Giants’ injury situation at receiver. Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton will both miss their second-straight game, and Engram saw six targets last week vs. the Saints. This game vs. the Cowboys should feature plenty of offense, so Engram makes a lot of sense at the position.
Paying up for Mike Gesicki on FanDuel also makes sense. He owns a Bargain Rating of 70%, and he’s been one of Brissett’s favorite targets. Gesicki saw 12 targets two weeks ago and followed that up with six targets last week. He turned those into five catches for 57 yards and a touchdown, and he could see a boost if Parker is ruled out.
Lineup Construction
You can go in a few different directions this week, but it seems like pairing Henry and Adams is a logical starting point. After that, the question becomes just how much you’re willing to punt at some of the other positions.
If you’re willing to roster Samuel and Seals-Jones on DraftKings, it opens up your lineup to load up elsewhere. If you add Lance at quarterback, it leaves you with an average of $5,400 for your remaining four players (including defense).
Going with guys like Shenault and Engram don’t give you quite as much flexibility, but it might give you a bit more upside. Both options seem fine to me.
Henry isn’t quite as necessary on FanDuel, where he’s priced at $10,400. You can definitely still play him, but he’s not nearly the same value. Guys like Fournette, Harris, and Williams are arguably better points-per-dollar options at the position, and they allow you to go nuts at wide receiver. It’s very possible to use Adams, Lamb, and Moore if you go forgo Henry at running back, and that’s pretty tempting.
As far as GPPs, you can utilize our NFL Models to identify some potentially overlooked targets. We do ownership projections for every player, and our Leverage Rating compares those projected ownerships to each player’s projected ceiling. If a player has a high ceiling but low projected ownership, they will have a strong Leverage Rating. Those types of players are ideal in tournaments.
Ryan Hodge, Justin Bailey, and Mike Randle do a great job of identifying some high upside GPP targets in their Concise Convictions, Small-Field GPP Strategy, and Top Stacks articles.
Good luck this week!
