With only nine fights, finding unique lineups will be especially crucial this weekend in UFC DFS. Let’s explore some strategies to do just that, while still picking solid fighters. UFC Vegas 39 now starts at 2 p.m. due to some fight cancellations.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs tools to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each fight to create floor, median and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense as to which fighters we should target based upon the game type — maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card below.
UFC DFS Model
The Easy Chalk
Alexander Romanov ($9,200)
“King Kong” is 14-0 in his professional fighting career, and has only seen one judges’ decision. He’s taking on Jared Vanderaa, who is a solid heavyweight, but nowhere near Romanov’s caliber. Romanov leads the slate in every projection this weekend. In fact, his Floor Projection is higher than most of the fighters Median Projection. Getting away from Romanov would be a great way to get to a unique lineup, but I’m not sure it’s worth it.
Of course, anytime you’re fighting a 6-foot-4, 265-pound man nicknamed “the mountain” there’s a knockout risk. Vanderaa has plenty of power (seven knockout victories in 12 pro wins) so Romanov needs to be careful. Fortunately, Romanov has the grappling ability to avoid this turning into a slug fest, which helps him tremendously here.
Using Romanov is ultimately a strategy/style decision. He will almost certainly be the most popular fighter on the slate, so it’s hard to make unique lineups featuring him. He also projects better than any other fighter, so unique or not, you might have to have him in your lineups to have a chance.
Steve Garcia Jr. ($9,100)
My expectation is that ownership on Garcia will be significantly less than Romanov, but still second most on the slate. Garcia is the only fighter other than Romanov with a 100-point Ceiling Projection.
Garcia is a -350 favorite against Charlie Ontiveros ($7,100) who made hus UFC debut last October as a middlewieght, before coming all the way down to lightweight to fight Garcia. Ontiveros fought most of his career at welterweight, but it’s still strange to see a guy drop two weight classes at once.
Anyway, the betting market is all over Garcia here. He’s currently a -135 favorite to win this fight inside the distance. To be honest, I’m not sure where the confidence on Garcia is coming from. Both men are 0-1 in the UFC, and have similar records overall. Garcia deserves to be the favorite (he’s fought tougher competition overall and picked up three fewer losses) but it should be closer.
Garcia is certainly a safe pick here, and for cash games I wouldn’t think twice about rostering him. However, if he is as popular in lineups as betting markets would suggest, going with Ontiveros makes a lot of sense.
The Upside Plays
Lupita Godinez ($8,600)
Godinez is 5-1 in her professional career, with her lone loss coming in her UFC debut to Jessica Penne. She’s taking on Silvana Juarez, who is making her debut herself. I don’t have a ton to say about this fight — one UFC fight between the two of them means there’s very little data to be had. However, our projections love Godinez, her Ceiling Projection trails only Garcia and Romanov on the slate.
I don’t expect ownership to be quite as high on Godinez as it is on the other fighters with similar Ceiling Projections. While nobody on this card is a big name so to speak, Godinez doesn’t even have a Wikipedia page. Trust the projections, take the leverage. She’s a great play in tournaments.
The Contrarian Approach
Jared Gooden ($7,400)
“Nite Train” is a +190 underdog against Randy Brown ($8,800). Brown is sure to be popular in this one, but I prefer Gooden. Gooden has a terrible Median Projection — fourth lowest on the card. However, his ceiling is solid; everyone who projects better costs at least $600 more in salary.
This fight is -175 to end inside the distance, so it’s likely somebody picks up a stoppage bonus here. Gooden has finished 15 of his 18 professional wins, so he can get anybody out of there. He should be fairly overlooked in this one given his odds, so this should be one of the better leverage spots on the card.
Gooden also missed weight fairly badly here — coming in at 174 lbs. You know what’s a huge advantage in a fight? Being bigger than your opponent. It’s why we have weight classes to begin with. This is, of course, is a fairly thin angle to pursue (fighter’s who missed weight haven’t performed particularly better or worse, historically.)
Either way, Gooden should be much stronger than the lanky Brown. He’s not the most comfortable play, but given our need for unique lineup construction, and salary relief, he makes some sense here.
The Swing Fight
Mackenzie Dern ($8,200) vs Marina Rodriguez ($8,000)
Dern is about as cheap as a main even favorite can be. By “about as cheap” I mean “exactly as cheap” — DraftKings pricing ensures that the two fighters combine for $16,200 in salary, so if she were any cheaper she wouldn’t be the favorite. As such, we have her behind only Romanov in Pts/Salary projection. Rodriguez projects far worse, as she’s 10th in Median projection among 18 fighters.
Dern isn’t some slight favorite either, the sixth ranked straw-weight in Tapology’s rankings is around -200 depending on the book. She’s also a slight favorite (-105) to end this fight inside the distance. This line seems a bit steep to me though. Dern and Rodriguez ($8,000) both have only one loss in their professional careers. Dern lost a unanimous decision to Amanda Ribas, a fighter Rodriguez knocked out. Rodriquez’s only loss is a split decision to Carla Esparza
As always, getting the main event right will be crucial to DFS lineups. Rodriguez is a live dog here, but I expect ownership to condense around Dern. Most projection systems will be all over a -200 favorite priced at only $8,200.
It’s risky giving the betting lines, but I prefer Rodriguez for tournaments.
Photo Credit: Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Pictured above: Jared Gooden
