The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The TOUR heads to Las Vegas this week as the TPC Summerlin hosts the Shriners Children’s Open. The course is a par-71 that measures at 7,255 yards with bentgrass greens.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
For more information on Strokes Gained data and how to use it, check out this article from Bryan Mears on The Action Network, which unpacks each of the above metrics in detail. I also recommend Chris Murphy’s Strokes Gained column after each round of that week’s PGA TOUR event, which highlights golfers to buy and fade, along with Matthew Vincenzi’s weekly “Stats That Matter” column that highlights which Strokes Gained sub-metrics matter the most for a given course.
And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
Core Plays
Webb Simpson ($10,200 DraftKings)
Webb is my preferred play of all the studs up top this week on DraftKings. We never know which version of Brooks Koepka we’ll get week-to-week, while Viktor Hovland is making his first career start at TPC Summerlin and Sam Burns is coming off a victory last week. We get to save some salary and roster arguably the best golfer in the field. Simpson has the best course history in this field as well, having made all eight cuts with a win in 2014, a T-4 in 2015, and T-7 in 2019.
Simpson ranks fourth in this field in SG: Approach over his past 16 rounds, and we know he can get as hot as anyone with the putter. We like to play Webb on Webb tracks and this week is most certainly one of them. He’s as safe an option as they come this week.
Cameron Tringale ($8,500 DraftKings)
I’m running out of superlatives to describe Tringale. The man is simply a professional golfer that consistently goes overlooked by oddsmakers and DFS sites alike. He came through for us again last week, finishing T-11 at the Sanderson Farms. Despite the strong finish, he saw his DraftKing’s salary decrease, making it even easier to fit him in this week.
Tringale has had nice success at TPC Summerlin over the years, finishing T-19 a year ago and T-2 back in 2016. He’s playing the best golf of his career and is getting really close to winning his first PGA TOUR event. He sits eighth in this field in Total Strokes Gained over his past 48 rounds and is a good bent grass putter, which is no surprise considering he’s a west coast guy. Fire up Tringale with confidence this week.
Joaquin Niemann ($8,300 DraftKings)
Niemann’s price immediately jumped out this week. He’s the 15th shortest golfer on most sportsbooks but is the 20th highest priced golfer on DraftKings. The Chilean’s long-term numbers look really nice, as he ranks seventh in this field in SG: Off-the-Tee, 15th in SG: Ball-Striking, and 21st in Total Strokes Gained all over his past 48 rounds. Niemann is a birdie machine that we should look to target at easier tracks like we’ll have this week.
The numbers back that up as the 22-year old has a T-13 and T-10 to his name in three trips to TPC Summerlin. He will likely be really high owned in cash games, but DraftKing’s gave us a layup this week with his salary, and we should take full advantage.
Value Plays
Russell Henley ($7,900 DraftKings)
Henley is underpriced for his talent level in this field. There are obviously some big names teeing it up this week, but he’s about $500 too cheap. His course history at TPC Summerlin is very strong, making four of his six cuts with a top-10 and two top-27’s. This is by all accounts a second shot course, which is great for Henley since he ranks second in this field in SG: Approach across his past 24 rounds.
His best putting surface is bermuda, but he’s still a positive bent grass putter, and if he gets some putts to drop this week, he will be on the first page of the leaderboard with how he’s been hitting it of late. Henley is arguably the best value on the board.
Maverick McNealy ($7,700 DraftKings)
McNealy is playing the best golf of his young career, coming off a T-2 at the Fortinet Championship his last time out. He’s now finished inside the top 30 in eight of his past nine starts. He ranks 24th in this field in SG: Ball-Striking and 13th in Total Strokes Gained over his past 24 rounds. McNealy currently resides in Las Vegas, so he’s likely seen TPC Summerlin plenty of times. He’s missed two of three cuts at this event in his career but is certainly a better player now than he’s ever been.
We know he can catch fire and make a ton of birdies, which is what will be necessary this week as the winning score should be in the 20-under par range. He’s a positive putter on bentgrass as well, which is the icing on the cake. I see no reason to fade McNealy while he’s in this good of form, especially at this price.
Luke List ($7,200 DraftKings)
List is coming off a great week at the Sanderson Farm’s, finishing in a tie for 17th place while gaining over 1.56 strokes Tee-to-Green in all four rounds. He’s been especially locked in off-the-tee, ranking fifth in that department across his past eight rounds, trailing only Sam Burns, Brooks Koepka, Kyle Stanley, and Corey Conners. List has also performed well at this event over the years, making three of his four cuts with three top 20s.
As usual, it will come down to whether or not his putter cooperates, but he’s too dialed in with his ball-striking of late to be faded at this price.
Punt Plays
Adam Schenk ($6,800 DraftKings)
We will run it back with Schenk this week as he barely missed the cut on the number last week at the Sanderson Farms. He’s been a very consistent cut-maker for us in cash games for a couple of years now and has had success at TPC Summerlin in his career, making the cut in three of his four trips with two top 20s in that stretch. He hit his irons and putted pretty well last week but was let down by his short game. He’s a much better putter on bentgrass, and I’m willing to bet he makes the weekend for us this week, which is more than enough at this bargain bin price.
