NFL Week 4 features a 13-game main slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays at each position using the FantasyLabs Tools.
Quarterback
Stud
Josh Allen started the year with two subpar performances, but he bounced back in a big way in Week 3. He racked up five total touchdowns – four passing and one rushing – resulting in 40.22 DraftKings points. He did that against the Washington Football Team, who are known for being a strong defensive squad. The numbers don’t exactly back that up to start the year, but they were second in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA last season.
If Allen can do that against Washington, he should have no problems shredding the Texans’ defense. The Bills lead the slate with an implied team total of 32.0 points, and Allen has historically crushed in games with a high total. He’s never been implied for more than 29.75, but he’s racked up an average Plus/Minus of +3.23 in nine games with an implied team total of at least 27.0 (per the Trends tool).
Allen is pricy at $8,000 on DraftKings, but it’s hard to argue against his price tag. He leads all quarterbacks in our NFL Models in Median and Ceiling Projections, as well as Projected Plus/Minus.
Value
Jalen Hurts racks up fantasy points every time he takes the field. He’s averaged just under 27 DraftKings points in six career games with at least 55 snaps, including 25.54 last week vs. the Cowboys. He did that with only 35 rushing yards, and his legs are typically his greatest weapon. He’s averaged just under 70 rushing yards in his six full games, so expect a bit more production as a runner moving forward.
Hurts draws arguably the best matchup possible this week vs. the Chiefs. Their defense has been horrendous to start the year, ranking dead last in DVOA, and Hurts owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.00 on DraftKings.
Quick Hits
Matt Ryan has been priced down to $5,400 on DraftKings, which is one of the lowest marks of his career. Billy Ward makes the case for Ryan as a buy-low option in this week’s Quarterback Breakdown.
Kyler Murray has been one of the best quarterbacks in fantasy over the past two seasons, and he’s averaged the second-highest Plus/Minus at the position over the past 12 months. Murray has a tough matchup this week vs. the Rams, but that could result in lower ownership than usual. He owns a Bargain Rating of 99% on FanDuel, so he’s definitely worth considering in tournaments.
There’s no guarantee that Justin Fields starts again this week, but if he does, he’s an interesting bounce-back candidate vs. the Lions. He’s provided very little rushing value so far as a starter, but he still profiles as one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the league. He ranks in the 99th percentile at the position in terms of 40-yard dash time, so I’m anticipating better performances moving forward.
If you’re looking for more quarterback options, check out Ryan Hodge’s QB Model Breakdown.
Running Back
Stud
Derrick Henry is poised for another monster season. Not only is he still the premier rusher in all of football, but he’s added some receiving work to his skill set this season. He’s racked up at least three receptions in each of his first three games, which is something he did just once last year. His involvement in the passing game only figures to increase given the Titans’ current injury situation. Julio Jones and A.J. Brown have both been ruled out, leaving the team with a very unintimidating group of pass-catchers.
That means Henry should be extremely busy vs. the Jets on Sunday. The Titans are listed as 6.5-point road favorites, and large favorites tend to dominate at the running back position. Henry has played in 17 games as a favorite of more than a field goal since the start of 2018, and he’s posted an absurd +7.22 Plus/Minus in those contests. His rushing attempt prop is set at 26.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook, and it’s easy to imagine Henry smashing the Jets with that many opportunities.
If that wasn’t enough, Henry is also a massive discount on DraftKings. His $8,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%, which is the third-highest mark at the position.
Value
Clyde Edwards-Helaire isn’t quite as cheap as he was last week, but he still stands out as massively underpriced. He owns a Bargain Rating of 95% on DraftKings, and he should be a popular option coming off last week’s performance. He racked up 100 yards on the ground and a receiving touchdown, resulting in 20.9 DraftKings points.
CEH owns an excellent matchup this week vs. the Eagles. They were dominated by the Cowboys’ rushing attack in Week 3, with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard both averaging at least 5.5 yards per attempt. The Chiefs are also listed as seven-point favorites, so CEH could find himself in a more favorable game script than he was last week.
Quick Hits
Miles Sanders was basically invisible for the Eagles last week, but can he turn things around vs. the Chiefs? Billy Ward highlights Sanders’ upside in this week’s Running Back Breakdown.
Najee Harris has been one of the busiest running backs in football this season. He’s played on 190 out of 197 possible snaps for the Steelers, and he’s also garnered virtually all of their running back carries. However, what really makes him pop is his receiving upside. He’s racked up a 20% target market share through the first three weeks, including a ridiculous 19-target performance last week vs. the Bengals. That seems like a major outlier, but there’s no reason he can’t see seven or eight targets this week vs. the Packers. The fact that Chase Claypool is out should only help his cause.
Nick Chubb took a backseat to Kareem Hunt last week, but he stands out as one of the top GPP plays at running back vs. the Vikings. He owns the fourth-highest Ceiling Projection at the position, yet he’s projected for just 6.3% ownership on DraftKings. His $7,000 salary on DraftKings also comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Aaron Jones stands out as one of the best plays at the position on FanDuel. He owns a Bargain Rating of 98%, and his 12 Pro Trends are tied with Henry’s for the most at the position.
Finally, don’t forget about Chuba Hubbard. He isn’t exactly free since Christian McCaffrey’s injury occurred last Thursday, but he still owns one of the top points-per-dollar projections in our Models.
Wide Receiver
Stud
Davante Adams has become one of the most consistent producers in fantasy, which is really saying something for a wide receiver. He was quiet in Week 1, but he’s bounced back with 27 targets, 20 catches, 253 yards, and two touchdowns over the past two weeks.
He has a chance to take on an even larger workload this week vs. the Steelers. Marques Valdez-Scantling has been ruled out, and he has quietly been a huge part of the Packers’ passing attack this season. He’s racked up 17% of the targets and 38% of the air yards, both of which rank second on the squad. That production is going to have to go somewhere, and Adams should absorb some of it.
Aaron Rodgers is also one of the best home favorites in the league, and that production has unsurprisingly trickled down to his top pass catcher. Adams has posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.41 as a home favorite since the start of the 2016 season.
Value
If you’re going to dive into the Titans’ pool of value receivers, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine stands out as your best bet. He was an undrafted free agent in 2020, but he broke out as a 20-year-old sophomore at Indiana in 2016. That puts him in the 78th percentile for Breakout Age per PlayerProfiler, which can be a predictor of future success.
Westbrook-Ikhine also fared well in his first extended taste of NFL action last week. He played on 53 of 68 snaps, and he racked up four catches for 53 yards and a touchdown.
He’s dirt cheap on DraftKings, and he currently owns the second-highest projected Plus/Minus at the position. That makes him a viable punt play for cash games if you’re looking to load up at the other positions.
Quick Hits
Cooper Kupp is the most expensive receiver on FanDuel, but he’s just third at the position on DraftKings. Given his production to start the year, the FanDuel pricing is definitely more accurate. He leads the league in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns, so he should be a popular option this week. This game between the Rams and Cardinals also has massive offensive potential. The Rams currently rank first in neutral pace, while the Cardinals were second in that department last season.
If you’re looking for a more contrarian way to target the Rams’ passing attack, consider Robert Woods. Billy Ward highlights Woods in this week’s Wide Receiver Breakdown.
Calvin Ridley owns an elite 97% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, and he racked up 11 targets last week vs. the Giants. He should see another increased target share with Russell Gage sidelined, and he’s been one of the unluckiest receivers to start the year. He’s underperformed his fantasy expectation by -16.0 points per ProFootballFocus, which is the top mark at the receiver position. He’s a strong buy-low target.
Amari Cooper owns a Bargain Rating of 89% on DraftKings, making him one of the best pure values at the position. He’s taken a backseat to CeeDee Lamb recently, but $6,000 is still a very appealing price tag for him.
Finally, make sure to monitor the injury reports for the Seahawks and 49ers. Tyler Lockett and George Kittle are questionable, and D.K. Metcalf and Deebo Samuel could command massive workloads if they’re ruled out.
Tight End
Stud
Travis Kelce is essentially a top wide receiver masquerading in a tight end’s body, so paying up for him in DFS is always a viable strategy. He’s scored at least 20.4 DraftKings points in all three games so far this season, and he’s topped 100 receiving yards in each of his past two games.
Kelce is as matchup-proof as it gets, but he does have a strong matchup this week vs. the Eagles. They were destroyed by Dalton Schultz last week, who finished with six catches for 80 yards and two touchdowns, and they rank just 18th in DVOA vs. tight ends this season. Kelce is expected to spend most of his time against linebacker Eric Wilson, who owns a PFF grade of just 32.6 so far this season. Overall, PFF credits Kelce with the largest advantage of the week at tight end by a nearly comical margin.
The only issue with Kelce is that he is pricy. He’s not that hard to fit in on FanDuel, but his $8,100 salary on DraftKings is cumbersome. I’m still going to do my best to fit him in as much as possible, but it’s not going to be easy.
Value
If you’re looking to pay down at the position, Will Dissly is an appealing punt play. Head coach Pete Carroll said that Gerald Everett is not expected to suit up this week, which opens up a ton of snaps at tight end for the Seahawks. Everett has logged at least 72% of the snaps in each of the first three weeks, and he racked up five targets last week vs. the Vikings.
Dissly is dirt-cheap at just $2,600 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 89%, but he ranks second at the position in projected Plus/Minus.
Quick Hits
Dissly is expected to carry moderate ownership at tight end, so you can definitely pivot to some other cheap players at the position in tournaments. Billy Ward identifies Cole Kmet as one such option in this week’s Tight End Breakdown.
Kelce and Kittle will be the preferred options for those paying up at tight end this week, which makes T.J. Hockenson and Kyle Pitts extremely appealing in tournaments. They own the third- and fourth-highest ceiling projections at the position, but both players are projected for less than 5% ownership.
The Broncos really didn’t need Noah Fant last week vs. the Jets, opting instead to lean on their strong defense and running game. That likely won’t be the case this week vs. the Ravens. The team is going to need some production out of their passing game if they want to win, and Fant should be one of their focal points. The Broncos will be without Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler in this contest, so Fant, Courtland Sutton, and Tim Patrick should command most of their targets.
Lineup Construction
This is a tough week to find value for cash games.
On DraftKings, I’m locking in CEH at running back and Westbrook-Ikhine at receiver, which does give us a bit of flexibility with our other roster spots. After that, it’s all about prioritizing which studs we want to build around.
Personally, I’m having a hard time getting away from Henry. Everything is set up for a monster performance. He could legitimately get 30 carries this week, and the Jets simply have no answer for him.
Adams is also high on my priority list. He’s elite to begin with, and the injury to MVS means he could be even busier than usual.
Pairing Adams and Henry with our two value plays leaves us with an average of just under $5,000 for our remaining five roster spots. That likely takes Kelce off the table, but I can live with that. Henry and Adams are projected for better Plus/Minuses, and we can survive with Fant, Dissly, or Schultz at tight end.
On FanDuel, going with Kelce, Adams, and Henry is pretty easy if you want to. I don’t think you necessarily need Henry at $10,200, but he, Adams, and Kelce stand out as the clear top targets of the week. That means locking all three into your lineups is obviously appealing.
You don’t really nide to dive into the true punt plays on FanDuel, either. Guys like Hubbard, Mike Davis, and Myles Gaskin at running back and Sutton, Devonta Smith, and Corey Davis at wide receiver all stand out as underpriced midrange options that you can use to round out your lineup.
One of the best ways to identify tournament plays is with the Leverage Rating in our NFL Models. It compares ceiling projection and projected ownership, which allows you to identify players who are being overlooked by the rest of the field.
Some of my favorite leverage plays this week are Murray, Chubb, and Pitts, but Ryan Hodge, Justin Bailey, and Mike Randle do an excellent job of breaking down others in their content. Make sure to check out Concise Convictions, Small-Field GPP Strategy, and Top Stacks for more viable tournament plays.
Good luck this week!
