One of the best ways to enjoy Thursday Night Football is to play player props.
When it comes to NFL player prop projections, there is simply no one better than our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner. Using his projections in our Player Props Tool on FantasyLabs, we can easily identify the biggest advantages to help build our bankroll.
Each Thursday, I’ll identify which TNF props on PrizePicks have the most attractive value when compared with Sean’s projections. Let’s take a closer look at the Week 4 matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Cincinnati Bengals.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
NFL Prop Picks for TNF
Joe Mixon Over 2.5 Receptions
Mixon has been getting incredible early-season usage, ranking second in snap share (80.2%) and third in opportunity share (86%) among all running backs. He has only seven targets and six receptions on the season, but the absence of wide receiver Tee Higgins makes this an attractive over.
In Week 1, Mixon tallied four receptions for 23 yards in Cincinnati’s 27-24 win over Minnesota. Now he faces a Jacksonville team that allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs in 2020 and the fifth-most fantasy points to the position so far this season. Mixon has averaged 3.1 targets per game over his career, including 3.6 targets in games that the Bengals are favored in (like this one).
In home games, that number rises even further to 3.7 targets.
We project his receiving total at 2.7 receptions, a full 35% over this prop total. This is a 10 (out of 10) rated prop in our tool.
Joe Burrow Over 21 Completions
Jacksonville’s defense has struggled throughout the season, and was particularly poor in its only road game at Houston in Week 1. The Jaguars rank 30th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA and just traded away former first-round CB C.J. Henderson.
Each of the opposing quarterbacks have reached or exceeded this prop in the first three weeks. In the last two games, Denver’s Teddy Bridgewater (26 completions) and Arizona’s Kyler Murray (28 completions) easily reached this total.
We project Burrow for 22.4 completions and get an extra half-point latitude on most places, which have this total listed at 21.5 completions. This is a 7-rated prop in our tool.
D.J. Chark Over 46.5 Receiving Yards
This is a pick based on our projection at FantasyLabs — most places have this total at 48.5 of 49.5 yards, but the PrizePicks’ total of 46.5 is almost three full yards below our projection of 49.2 yards.
Chark has started to build a connection with quarterback Trevor Lawrence, with 154 receiving yards and two touchdowns through the first three weeks. Chark crested this total in two of the three games, including 86 yards (on 12 targets) in Jacksonville’s only road game.
Chark brings 4.34 speed in a game that Jaguars are underdogs by 7.5 points (check real-time NFL odds here). With the likelihood of a pass-heavy game script, he should be able to beat this total in this Thursday Night Football matchup.
