This week we have the AT&T Byron Nelson 2016 at TPC Four Seasons – Las Colinas!
The Par-3s
The Par-3s are actually rather basic here. They have a bit of distance to them, but three of the four are under 200 yards. Water will come into play on two of the holes but should really be a factor on only one of those. Greens in Regulation from 175-200 yards will be a useful stat to look at this week. Birdies can be had but will require a good tee shot coupled with solid putting, so proximity to the hole and strokes gained putting will be worth considering this week.
Over the past three seasons, golfers have averaged +0.12 strokes per tournament on the Par-3s. Using that as the value for Recent Par-3 Scoring in the Trends tool, we get the following:
It seems to be a slightly positive indicator of success, with a Plus/Minus of +0.15 points. For this week, there are 23 golfers in the field who match for this trend.
The Par-4s
With only two Par-5s this week, the golfers will be faced with two Par-4s that stretch over 500 yards. While golfers with mediocre Driving Distance have had success here, top-end DD will certainly provide an advantage. There are very few guaranteed birdies on the Par-4s, so Par-4 Scoring performance will be a good stat to consider.
Over the past three seasons, golfers have averaged +4.05 strokes per tournament on the Par-4s. Using that as the value for Recent Par-4 Scoring in Trends, we get the following:
It seems to be a slightly positive indicator of success, with a Plus/Minus of +0.88 points. For this week, the majority of the field were current matches.
The Par-5s
There are only two Par-5s this week, and they are both relatively short. While they should be reachable for the majority of the field, the longer players will obviously have more opportunities for eagles.
Over the past three seasons, golfers have averaged -2.59 strokes per tournament on the Par-5s. Using that as the value for Recent Par-5 Scoring in Trends, we get the following:
It seems to be a slightly positive indicator of success, with a Plus/Minus of +1.57 points. For this week, the majority of the field were current matches.
Summary
When we plug the following parameters into Trends . . .
- Recent Par-3 = +0.12
- Recent Par-4 = +4.05
- Recent Par-5 = -2.59
. . . we end up with 12 matches for this week’s tournament-scoring trend!
Try out the PGA DFS Trends tool for yourself and see this week’s matches for course scoring averages!
How to Use This Breakdown
The data presented in these articles is meant to be used with the FantasyLabs PGA Trends tool. By plugging in the historical scoring averages, you can find golfers who match specific course-fit profiles. With the Trends tool, you can backtest your weekly PGA research to gauge its predictive performance.
To create your own trends using this data, follow these instructions (Note: You MUST follow these instructions carefully):
- Visit the PGA Trends tool (active subscription required).
- Click on “Create a Fantasy Trend.”
- Provide a name for your trend, and then under “Course” select this week’s course (Las Colinas).
- Click “OK” to create your trend.
- From the filters on the left side, select the “Recent Form Filters,” and then find the Par-3, -4, and -5 Filters.
- Input the provided values as desired, and then select “Current Matches” to see this week’s golfers who fit your trend.
Note: You can create separate trends or combine multiple filters to slim down the matches.
