Saturday’s main slate features eight games starting at 7:10 pm ET. We will be using Bales Model to highlight some of the top options to consider.
Pitchers
The four pitchers projected to score the most fantasy points today are:
- Walker Buehler (R)
- Charlie Morton (R)
- Dylan Cease (R)
- H. Garcia (R)
Walker Buehler rates well in the Bales Model for tonight’s main slate. Although their bats have been quiet, the Dodgers pitching has been electric their last 11 games. In those games, they did not allow more than four runs in each of the outings, including a shutout win yesterday. Looking to continue this dominance on the mound, Buehler gets the nod today against the San Diego Padres. Last start, Buehler allowed six earned runs on seven hits while only pitching three innings. This was by far his worst start of the season, and he will be looking to rebound.
The highest rated pitcher on the slate per the Bales Model for both DraftKings and FanDuel is Charlie Morton from the Atlanta Braves. Morton has been elite throughout his 2021 campaign. In 158 innings, he has a 3.48 ERA, 185 strikeouts, 1.06 WHIP, and a 13-5 record. Morton’s superior play has impressed the Braves ownership as they have just signed him to a one year, $20 million contract extension. Hoping to continue his fine run of form, Morton will face the Miami Marlins. Last start against the Marlins, Morton threw six innings in which he allowed only three hits while striking out nine. The Marlins are projected for the lowest implied runs total on the slate (3.1 runs).
Dylan Cease from the Chicago White Sox ranks fifth in all of baseball with 197 strike outs. This high strike out total also places him atop the K/9 list of pitchers on today’s slate (11.14). A reservation I have about Cease is that he has allowed one or more home runs in each of his last five outings. Tonight, Cease will be on the hill against the Boston Red Sox who are projected for an implied runs total of 4.0 runs.
The highest priced pitcher on DraftKings today is L. H. Garcia from the Houston Astros. In his first full MLB season, Garcia has shown he can be effective in the Astros rotation, even at the age of 24. In 134 innings, Garcia has recorded 155 strikeouts and a 3.29 ERA. A concern for those interested in Garcia is that he has not thrown more than 90 pitches in his last 10 starts. With a tough task today, Garcia will be pitching against the Los Angeles Angels who scored five runs in each of their last two games.
Value
A top-six rated pitcher on Bales Model today who offers great upside at a lower price is Taijuan Walker from the New York Mets. In 138.2 innings, Walker has collected 129 strikeouts, has a 4.15 ERA, and 1.19 WHIP. In his one start against the New York Yankees this year, Walker scored 20.4 points on DraftKings as he struck out five batters in 5.2 innings.
Although the Yankees are a tough ball club to pitch against, Walker has shown an ability to shine when the spotlight is on him. Two brief concerns I would like to touch on are his high walk rate and the amount of home runs against. Walker has walked 19 batters in his last nine starts, while giving up 14 home runs. Both are areas for improved for Walker, who is determined to have a strong performance in a battle of New York.
Hitters
Notable Stack
Today’s top projected points stack comes to you from the Houston Astros (-234 moneyline):
- Alex Bregman (R)
- Yordan Alvarez (L)
- Carlos Correa (R)
- Yulieski Gurriel (R)
The Astros are projected for the second highest implied runs total on the slate today (5.3 runs). On FanDuel, this stack will cost you $13k in salary and is projected for a combined 50.6 fantasy points. Interesting to note that Jose Altuve was not included in this stack. Altuve, along with most of the Astros batters, has been on fire recently. Looking further on Bales Model, if you were to stack five players from the Astros, Altuve is the next in line. As the Astros currently hold a 5.5 game lead in the American League West, they have scored a total of 31 runs in their last four games. This team is stacked from top to bottom. Look for another strong batting performance today.
Other Hitters
The highest rated batter on Bales Model for both DraftKings and FanDuel today is Luis Arraez from the Minnesota Twins. In 360 at bats, Arraez has collected 107 hits which is good for a .297 batting average. Arraez is projected to bat lead off for the Twins as they take on the Kansas City Royals. The Royals allowed four runs against in the series opener including two home runs.
Value
Lastly, here are a handful of batters to consider while completing your lineups today that are projected for a high fantasy points/salary:
- Josh VanMeter
- Gavin Lux
- Joc Pederson
- Max Schrock
- Gavin Sheets
