The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday brings us a 12-game main slate with the first pitch at 7:05 p.m. ET.
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Pitchers
The favorite on the Bales Model tonight is Zac Gallen. I know for a fact that I have not written that sentence this year. Gallen has been having a much quieter season than he is used to. He sits at a 2-8 record, with a 4.34 ERA.
Gallen floats to the top of the rankings tonight because he has a great matchup and a really low price. He faces the Texas Rangers, who have the second-fewest runs per game in the league at 3.87.
Gallen has been a solid strikeout pitcher this year, with 106 in 91 1/3 innings. When he gets into trouble, it is with walks and home runs. Outside of Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Adolis Garcia, and Nate Lowe, no one within this Rangers’ lineup should be all that threatening to go deep.
I definitely like Gallen tonight. He is probably best suited for GPP usage, but I feel like he is safe enough for cash games.
The next-best name is going to cost a lot more: Gerrit Cole. Cole is on the mound in a game that it feels like the New York Yankees could really use against the Toronto Blue Jays.
Cole has faced Toronto three times already this year, and he has a combined 19 1/3 innings, giving up five earned runs and recording 20 strikeouts. This Toronto lineup can definitely strike fear in opposing pitchers, but Cole just is on another level than most pitchers.
It is only four starts, but since returning from the COVID-IL, Cole has only allowed one home run. That was his biggest issue early on in the season. With the Blue Jays countering with Steven Matz, it feels like Cole should really pick up a win bonus here.
I had to check this; the line is ridiculous, but the San Diego Padres are -350 tonight. That is not a line you see very often in the MLB. That brings Blake Snell surely into the conversation for tonight.
I have written a lot about Snell this year — and did not trust him for a good portion of it. His month of August has definitely changed my mind. He had a silly 54 strikeouts in 36 2/3 innings to go with a 1.72 ERA. He lasted further into starts, completing seven innings three separate times. Before August, he had done that once on the season.
Part of this line is the expectation that Shohei Ohtani will not be in the Angels’ lineup. Losing an MVP (let alone two MVPs) out of your lineup is going to hurt your chances of succeeding. The Angels have by far the lowest implied run total of the evening at 2.6.
With where Snell’s game is at, I feel very comfortable rolling him out there tonight. Based on price point, he is a better play on DraftKings than FanDuel.
Max Fried has thrown seven straight quality starts, with only giving up three earned runs once in that stretch. Two starts in that stretch are against the same opponent he faces tonight, the Washington Nationals.
The Nats have really punted on the rest of this season following the trade deadline. The lineups they are running out there tend to hurt the eyes. That is helping the Atlanta Braves to be -225 favorites tonight.
Fried is almost at exactly a strikeout an inning on the year. He is not as known for recording strikeouts as Cole or Snell but can put up some impressive totals. He has never allowed a home run to anyone on the Nationals in 62 total at-bats.
Fried does not have the general upside that some of the other starters have due to their ability to reach double-digit strikeouts. He feels pretty safe in avoiding a blow-up game with the run that he is on and the Nationals’ lineup.
I would not be looking to back Eduardo Rodriguez tonight. It is strange, but the Tampa Bay Rays are one of the best offenses on the year now. They’ve averaged 5.39 runs per game on the year (nine runs per game in their last three games) and are seemingly potent through their entire lineup.
This game is occurring in Fenway Park and has a playoff feel. I realize Rodriguez is coming off one of his best starts of the year against these same Rays; there are just much safer options tonight.
Hitters
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Notable Stack
The top stack of the night is the Cincinnati Reds:
- Joey Votto (L)
- Mike Moustakas (R)
- Jonathan India (R)
- Nick Castellanos (R)
This group is projected for 47.7 FanDuel points on a salary of $13,300. The Reds have been one of the most prolific offenses for the entire season. They will face Adrian Sampson of the Chicago Cubs tonight in Wrigley Field. Sampson is more or less an opener for the Cubs. His best start was actually his first against these Reds, where he completed four innings while giving up just one earned run. The Cubs do have a league-average ERA for their bullpen for the season, but that included Craig Kimbrel, who was excellent for them early on.
Other Hitters
Whit Merrifield makes for a great play as he gets to face a left-hander. He is one of the top bargains of the night on the Bales Model. It does not hurt that he will get to be hitting Baltimore Oriole pitching in Camden Yards, either. Merrifield has slowed down on the stolen bags a little bit but is still a large part of his game and a huge bonus within DFS. He is an excellent player at avoiding a bagel and should get five opportunities to hit tonight. I would also look to Carlos Santana if you are looking to stack Kansas City Royals hitters.
The best play of the night is Tommy La Stella atop the San Francisco Giants lineup. La Stella does not always play and can end up being pinch-hit for, but is really cheap for hitting at the top of the lineup, and he is in Coors Field tonight. The entire Giants lineup has at least seven Pro Trends, and I am a little surprised that they did not present as the stack of the night. La Stella gets to face Chi Chi Gonzalez, who has consistently struggled in the big leagues. Brandon Belt will be a popular selection from that Giants lineup too.
Josh Rojas has five Pro Trends on the night and is frequently featured within the Lineup Optimizer. Rojas is off to a good start to September, as he is 5-for-16 with two doubles. He will get to be in his better split tonight, facing right-hander Spencer Howard. For the season, he has a .797 OPS against right-handers and .762 against left-handers. The Arizona Diamondbacks have been a much better run-producing team at home this year than on the road.
Pictured above: Zac Gallen
Credit: Norman HallGetty Images
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