The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
We have a 14-game main slate this Friday, with first pitch at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
There are not a ton of stud starting pitchers on this slate. The favorite on the Bales Model for FanDuel is Freddy Peralta.
Peralta will be making a return from a short stint on the injured list against the St. Louis Cardinals. St. Louis was actually his last opponent, but that start did not last long due to the injury.
Peralta’s best asset has been striking opposing hitters out this season, with 164 K’s in 121 1/3 innings. He has 10 strikeouts in nine innings against the Cardinals this season.
I have seen that Peralta’s move to the IL may have been a way to limit his innings a bit this season. The Milwaukee Brewers have enacted short leashes on their starters at various times throughout the season, too. A lot of deciding on Peralta tonight is how long you think he can last in this game. If he has a full allotment of pitches, he should make for a solid play.
The Cardinals are tied for the lowest implied run total of the day at 3.3.
» LIMITED-TIME OFFER: Football is back! Get six months of access to FantasyLabs PRO for only $199.95 – 45% OFF!
The next notable pitcher is Shohei Ohtani, who is the favorite on the Bales Model for DraftKings. The pitchers are flipped in the rankings, with Ohtani being the second-best option on FanDuel and Peralta being the second-best option on DraftKings. That is due to their prices flip-flopping between the two sites.
Ohtani is dealing with a slight injury, as well, as last weekend he was hit on his pitching hand while batting. The Los Angeles Angels sounded like they would be a little cautious with Ohtani returning to pitch. With how important he is to the franchise, I would think that the injury is nothing to worry about tonight.
Ohtani gets to face the Texas Rangers, which is really a ripe matchup for him. Like Peralta, Ohtani has been great at recording strikeouts this year. This will be his fourth start against these Rangers this season, he has a combined 15 innings pitched, five earned runs and 22 strikeouts.
The Angels are the second-biggest favorite on the board tonight at -206. I think Ohtani may be even safer than Peralta, with the questions as to how long the Brewers starter lasts in the game.
After that, it is going to take some gusto to be willing to roster some of these starters. The next best option on the Bales Model is Rich Hill.
The 41-year-old lefty has been just fine since being traded over to the New York Mets with a 4.15 ERA in August.
We should know what to expect from Hill at this point in his career. The likelihood of him racking up large strikeout totals is pretty slim, but he can be an effective pitch-to-contact pitcher.
Hill gets the Washington Nationals tonight, who he just faced last time out. He actually did rack up some strikeouts in that start with eight over five innings. The Nationals have the fifth-best K% on the season, so that outcome is interesting. Hill has not walked a batter in his last three starts, which is encouraging.
You are not playing Hill in a cash game, so he is a GPP consideration only. He makes for a not-so-horrible punt play, on a slate with not exactly rock solid upper options.
I am not sure that Kyle Gibson has gotten the love that he has deserved since moving over to the Philadelphia Phillies. He can make for a tough DFS option since he just does not showcase many strikeouts, but I love how long he can last into games.
Gibson has a 3.16 ERA since joining the Phillies, which is actually slightly worse than his time overall this year with the Rangers. That is bloated by a rough start against the Los Angeles Dodgers in which he gave up six earned runs. If you remove that start, he has completed at least six innings in every start that he has made for the Phillies.
He heads to a great pitching ballpark in LoanDepot Park tonight. The Miami Marlins just do not seem to score a lot of runs these days, even though they generally keep games competitive. The lower half of their lineup leaves a lot to offer. They have the second-worst K% on the season at 26%.
Gibson offers up some savings on Peralta and Ohtani, but he won’t feature nearly as many strikeouts.
One final consideration: Nestor Cortes Jr. The New York Yankees are going to be hard-pressed to pull Cortes out of their rotation at this point.
Cortes has shown an ability to strike out hitters. His strikeout totals in his last four starts are four, seven, seven and five. Tonight, he gets the Baltimore Orioles, who have been decent offensively of late with 25 combined runs over their last six games.
However, even in Yankee Stadium, the Orioles only have an implied run total of 3.5 and the Yankees are the biggest favorites of the night at -221.
If Cortes can push up into 6+ strikeouts for the evening, he should hit for great value. The Bales Model has him set for exactly five strikeouts.
Hitters
Notable Stack
With the game in Coors Field, the top stack of the night is the Atlanta Braves:
- 3. Freddie Freeman (L)
- 1. Ozzie Albies (S)
- 4. Austin Riley (R)
- 3. Jorge Soler (R)
This group is projected for 56.3 FanDuel points on a salary of $16,300. This is where some of those cheaper pitching options could come into play, as this is an expensive stack. The Braves stack would have sort of worked Thursday night as they scored six runs with home runs by Soler and Adam Duvall.
Tonight, Atlanta gets Antonio Senzatela who has these peculiar 2021 Colorado Rockies home/road pitching splits. He pitches better at home to the tune of a 3.89 ERA and .271 OBA.
With the Braves being one of the best offenses in the league, I am not sure if that worries me all that much. In GPPs, though, that could just be another piece of evidence to ignore stacking the Rockies tonight.
Other Hitters
Salvador Perez is one of the best bargains tonight at $3,700 on FanDuel. Perez is 1-for-his-last-12 after his scorching series against the Seattle Mariners. That does not scare me off of him. He has been one of the most elite hitters on the season at a position that can oftentimes lead to a punt play in DFS. He has poor career numbers against Dallas Keuchel, but this is not the same Keuchel as even a few years ago.
There should be some runs scored in the Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds game tonight. Tyler Stephenson would be a strong play if he bats in the 2-hole. Outside of the month of May, Stephenson has shown that he is a .300 hitter. Stephenson will be facing left-hander Tyler Anderson of the Tigers. Anderson has shown strikeout potential, but is usually snake bitten by the long ball. That smells like trouble in Great American Ball Park.
The favorite play of the Bales Model is Jonathan Villar, who would have an eight-game hitting streak if there was not an unsuccessful pinch-hitting attempt in the middle. He has two doubles and a home run in that time span, too. He gets pushed to his better average and on-base split, but actually lower OPS — as he will hit right-handed to begin the night. The Mets “should” be able to score some runs tonight with a 5.1 implied run total — emphasis on the word should.
Pictured above: Freddy Peralta
Credit: Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
