The PGA TOUR heads to Maryland this week as the 2021 FedExCup Playoffs continue with the BMW Championship at Caves Valley Golf Club.
The course is a long par-72 measuring at just over 7,540 yards with bentgrass greens. Despite the length, it’s been said CVCC should yield quite a bit of scoring, meaning we need to be targeting birdie makers this week. This will be a 70-man, no-cut event.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
For more information on Strokes Gained data and how to use it, check out this article from Bryan Mears on The Action Network, which unpacks each of the above metrics in detail. I also recommend Chris Murphy’s Strokes Gained column after each round of that week’s PGA TOUR event, which highlights golfers to buy and fade, along with Matthew Vincenzi’s weekly “Stats That Matter” column that highlights which Strokes Gained sub-metrics matter the most for a given course.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
Core Plays
Jon Rahm ($11,700 DraftKings)
This one will be short, as I probably don’t need to explain to you why Rahm is the top play on the board this week, even at his hefty price tag. He’s the No.1 golfer on the planet by a wide margin right now and ranks No. 1 in this field in total strokes gained across his past 48, 36, 24, 16, 12 and eight rounds. No, that is not a typo.
He didn’t play competitive golf for over a month due to his positive COVID test, and he still finished T-3 last week at the Northern Trust. People will say he “choked,” but it was simply due to his putting on Sunday, which we know is extremely variant from round to round. Rahm gained eight strokes on approach for the week, while netting over 10 strokes tee-to-green as well. He’s as locked in as we’ve ever seen him, and if you plan on paying up for anyone this week, make it the reigning U.S Open champion.
Full disclosure I do like Xander Schauffele quite a bit this week as well, so if you find yourself in a pinch salary wise when building lineups, feel free to drop down to him.
Daniel Berger ($9,000 DraftKings)
We’ll be going right back to Berger this week after a ho-hum T-56 last week. If you look at the data, however, you’ll see that he struck the ball beautifully and just could not get a putt to drop. He lost more than two strokes putting in three of his four rounds, which is something he has not done even once across his past 48 rounds. We can chalk that up as a fluke.
He did gain strokes on approach, off-the-tee and tee-to-green in three of four rounds, so we have every reason to believe he can play well for us this week. Prior to the Northern Trust, Berger had posted three top-10 finishes over his previous four starts. He’s been one of the best golfers on TOUR for the better part of a year and a half now. He’s as strong a play as it gets this week.
Paul Casey ($8,200 DraftKings)
Casey finally put up somewhat of a clunker last week after playing incredibly for the better part of the last four months. Much like Berger, it was his short game that let him down at Liberty National, losing more than 1.2 strokes putting in all four of his rounds. He also lost strokes around-the-green in three of four as well.
The good news, however, is that he was locked in both with his irons and off-the-tee. Our friends at DraftKings lowered his salary $500 after last week’s humdrum performance. Considering he ranks No. 3 in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green, No. 2 on approach and fifth in total strokes gained over his past 48 rounds, $8,200 is still way too cheap for him. Don’t let one bad putting week knock you off the bandwagon. Casey remains an elite play in all formats.
Joaquin Niemann ($8,100 DraftKings)
Niemann was not great last week, finishing in a tie for 47th place, but we now head to Caves Valley, which is a Tom Fazio-designed course. Niemann has elite history at Fazio tracks, most notably at The Old White TPC which used to host the Greenbriar, where Niemann picked up his first career PGA victory.
Overall on Fazio courses, Niemann gains 2.62 strokes per round, which ranks second in this field only behind Xander Schauffele. Another interesting name ranks third, who we will get to in a bit. The course is set to play at over 7,500 yards, so the Chilean’s distance off the tee will be a nice advantage this week. He also putts better on bentgrass than any other surface. This is another bet on talent, as the 22-year-old is too good of a ball-striker to be priced at just $8,100. He will likely be popular in high stakes contests, which should tell you all you need to know about his prospects this week.
Also consider: Sungjae Im ($8,000 DraftKings)
Value Plays
Shane Lowry ($7,900 DraftKings)
Lowry is coming off a great showing at Liberty National last week, finishing T-11. He gained strokes on approach in all four of his rounds and could have won the whole thing if his putter didn’t let him down. Despite his strong outing, DraftKings still did not price him above $8,000, making it somewhat of a layup for us this week in cash games.
The Irishman has now finished inside the top 25 in eight of his past 10 starts, which includes four top-11 finishes in that stretch. He constantly finds ways to get it done, whether it be with his ball-striking or his short game. He’s as much of a big game hunter as anyone in this field and especially in his price range. We should keep playing him until he gives us a reason not to.
Jason Kokrak ($7,800 DraftKings)
I went back and forth on this one, but we will go back to the Kokrak well one more time, especially with this being a no-cut event. He won the CJ Cup at Shadow Creek earlier this year, which was another Tom Fazio design, and he ranks 10th in this field in total strokes gained per round at Fazio courses.
Kokrak has the requisite length to play well this week, and we know he’s of the premier bentgrass putters in this field. He can’t burn us by missing the cut, and he should score plenty as he ranks 18th on TOUR in birdie or better percentage this season.
Punt Plays
Sebastian Munoz ($6,700 DraftKings)
Munoz is my favorite value play in the field this week, and he comes in at just $6,700 on DraftKings. He’s playing his best golf of the season at the best time, finishing inside the top 30 in four of his past five starts, including a pair of T-4’s at the Olympics (Fazio Design) and the John Deere Classic.
Munoz is a Fazio specialist, gaining 1.97 strokes tee-to-green per round at the three comp courses I used. That leads this field incase you were wondering. I love targeting Munoz at no-cut events, as his one blowup round won’t hurt us, and we know he’ll make a ton of birdies.
