Tuesday brings us another full Major League Baseball slate, with first pitch scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
A strong play and favorite on DraftKings is Zack Wheeler. Wheeler has been a true ace this season, with the sixth-best ERA in the MLB and second most strikeouts.
Wheeler gets to see the Washington Nationals again, although they will no longer have Trea Turner. Wheeler has seen them four times this year, pitching a combined 23 1/3 innings pitched that have led to 10 earned runs and 24 strikeouts.
With the Nationals having been such sellers at the deadline, their lineup looks vacated. The only imposing hitters are Juan Soto and Josh Bell. Not to mention the Nationals are throwing Patrick Corbin out there and there is a distinct advantage to the Philadelphia Phillies here. They are currently -173 favorites.
This feels like a great bounce-back spot for Wheeler, so manager Joe Girardi is going to have to trust him to go deep into this game. The Phillies got 18 outs from their bullpen Monday and he already can’t trust them to begin with. Wheeler hits for seven ProTrends.
The favorite on FanDuel is way down the board in price. And that pitcher is Taijuan Walker. This is a big-time risky play, as Walker had a 9.00 ERA in the month of July. Something has definitely looked different with Walker, as compared to the beginning of the season. Maybe it’s just a case of “they are who we thought they were.”
That being said, Walker’s price has begun to reflect his recent struggles and he gets to see the Miami Marlins. The Fish are going to be one of the lightest hitting teams the rest of this season. They also provide the opportunity to rack up strikeouts.
Walker saw them in his first start this season and went six innings, giving up two earned runs with four strikeouts. The New York Mets are -170 favorites, with Miami still deciding on their starter.
There is no way to roster Walker here in cash games, it is simply too risky. If he were to find his old ways, he could hit for great value in a GPP.
Walker Buehler rates out better on DraftKings than FanDuel based on his pricing. Buehler has simply been dominant for really most of the season. He just posted a 1.67 ERA in the month of July.
The difficulty here is that Buehler gets the best offense in the league in the Houston Astros. They sit at a 19.4 K% for the season an entire two percentage points better than the second-best Toronto Blue Jays.
It’s not that Buehler doesn’t have the capability to shut down impressive offenses. In back-to-back starts against the San Francisco Giants, he allowed a combined one run. It is more so the Astros being able to grind out at-bats, foul off tough pitches and make it harder for Buehler to reach value.
He is a similar -170 favorite, in what feels like an October match-up between Buehler and Lance McCullers Jr. Buehler hits for six ProTrends.
I would only really consider him in cash games and even then would prefer Wheeler to him.
A name that some might not know whom I like is Luis Patino of the Tampa Bay Rays. Patino has been in and out of the Rays’ rotation at various points of the season but was dominant his last time out. He went six innings of no run baseball with eight strikeouts against the New York Yankees.
That was the deepest he has pitched into a game this year, but his two previous outings he recorded outs into the sixth inning even though he was struggling more in those games.
He has over a strikeout an inning this year and is facing a strikeout prone team in the Seattle Mariners. They are tied for second-worst in K% on the season.
Patino hits for seven ProTrends and the Rays are -153 favorites. There are way worse shots you could take in a GPP. Even if he gives up some runs. he could hit value on strikeouts alone.
There are a lot of folks near the top that I would not play. Tyler Mahle is too expensive to be in the hitter friendly Great American Ball Park. Playing McCullers against the Los Angeles Dodgers may be getting too cute. Finally, I would not touch Blake Snell with a 10-foot pole right now. I am not sure how the San Diego Padres handle him the rest of the year, but I am looking at him as a semi-extended opener right now.
Hitters
Notable Stack
The favorite stack of the night is the Colorado Rockies:
- 5. C.J. Cron (R — 21-25%)
- 4. Ryan McMahon (L — 36-40%)
- 3. Trevor Story (R — 21-25%)
- 1. Charlie Blackmon (L – 13-16%)
This group is projected for 55.7 FanDuel points on a salary of $15,300. The Rockies will be seeing Zach Davies with an absurd implied run total of 6.3. Davies is a rather average pitcher, but tends to give up more fly balls than ground balls and has low strikeouts. That doesn’t bode well for Coors Field. Not to mention is 58 walks in 108 2/3 innings. Each of these hitters hits for at least five ProTrends, with McMahon having eight.
Other Hitters
Austin Slater, who should hit leadoff for the Giants, is coming in too cheap. Slater just hit .320 in the month of July and has been losing playing time to Lamonte Wade Jr., but should get the start against left-hander Madison Bumgarner tonight. He has a little bit of pop, with nine home runs this year and has swiped nine bags.
The Yankees will also be a popular non-Coors stack. They are in Camden Yards and could use a breakout hitting game. They have an implied run total of 5.9, so Las Vegas thinks it is coming. D.J. LeMahieu, Joey Gallo, and Anthony Rizzo all rate well. Gallo and Rizzo do not shy away from facing a left-hander and are on-base machines (so is LeMahieu for that matter). Rizzo is hitting .352 with an OPS of 1.033 off of lefties this year. They face little known left-hander Alexander Wells.
Rowdy Tellez features well in the Lineup Optimizer. He has simply been a different player since being traded over to the Milwaukee Brewers. In July, he hit .349 with a 1.106 OPS. I think I like him more as a GPP hitter, with some high upside.
The Chicago White should also put up some runs against Kris Bubic. Tim Anderson is a 99% Bargain on the Bales Model, with Jose Abreu not far behind him. Anderson is coming off his best month hitting .317 with an .858 OPS, he is 4-for-12 with two doubles off of Bubic. Abreu has cooled off recently after a strong start to July. He has still been able to work walks, which helps him avoid receiving fantasy zeroes.
