Welcome back to the second half of the MLB season! I do not know about you, but it has felt like a long week outside of the NBA Finals Game 4.
Tonight, we have a 13-game main slate on FanDuel and a 14-game main on DraftKings. Let’s get to it.
Pitchers
Tonight is going to be a strange slate. A few teams have yet to announce a starter and there are weather concerns all over the place. Always check the Lineups page, but games in Buffalo, Detroit and Cincinnati all look troublesome.
The favorite on the Bales Model tonight is Chris Bassitt. Bassitt is not a name that is usually written up, but does have an impressive 10-3 record to his name.
He has exactly one strikeout per inning, but has generally lasted deep into ballgames. He has lasted for seven innings in four of his last seven starts and owns a complete game shutout on the year.
He faces the Cleveland Indians, who have been a near average offense both in runs per game and K%. They have struggled a bit more to produce runs on the road, at 4.09 per game. They are a little thinner without Eddie Rosario, too.
The Indians have an implied run total of 3.3, which is tied for the slate low. Meanwhile, Bassitt hits for six ProTrends tonight. I am comfortable with rostering Bassitt tonight.
The next best option is Kevin Gausman, who is a bit more expensive than Bassitt. It is hard to believe what Gausman has been able to put together this season. He is a true ace.
He has a 9-3 record, with a 1.73 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. Both the ERA and WHIP are the second best in the majors. He has 133 K’s in 114 2/3 innings.
Tonight, he gets the St. Louis Cardinals. Gausman just faced them in his second-to-last start before the break. He went seven innings, giving up two earned runs, with eight K’s.
The Cardinals are actually the third-best team at avoiding strikeouts, but with the way that Gausman is pitching it is hard for any team to avoid them.
The Cardinals are the other team with 3.3 implied runs. Gausman is probably the safer option of the two, but is going to cost a bit more.
A lot of the pitchers are similar after that. Maybe Charlie Morton is an option.
Morton gets to face the Tampa Bay Rays, who have turned their offense around from the beginning parts of the season. They are 7th in runs per game, albeit second-worst in K%.
Morton still has good strikeout stuff with 114 K’s in 99 innings. He has recorded at least seven strikeouts in each of his last five starts. That number seems attainable tonight, too.
It will be interesting to see how the Atlanta Braves play this year out, without their mega-star in Ronald Acuna Jr. The lineup changes dramatically without him. They would be stronger than -124 favorites, if they had him in their lineup.
I could maybe see thinking about Andrew Heaney in a GPP. The Seattle Mariners’ lineup is as bare bones as they come, Heaney can just be tough to trust. He will get his K’s, but he did give up three home runs in a start to them in April.
I’m not trusting Chris Paddack. He just gave up eight runs in two innings to this Washington Nationals team last week (in the crazy San Diego Padres comeback). He just does not seem to have it this year — and every time that he is in a “good spot” he is still failing to deliver.
Hitters
Notable Stack
We have the Los Angeles Dodgers in Coors Field, so we know who the top stack of the night will be:
- 2. Max Muncy (L – 41%+)
- 3. Justin Turner (R – 13-16%)
- 1. Mookie Betts (R – 13-16%)
- 4. Cody Bellinger (L – 31-35%)
This group of four is projected for 60.1 FanDuel points on a salary of $16,600. Here is another reason why it may become tough to use Gausman over Bassitt. Even with Colorado Rockies pitching being better at home, it is tough to imagine the Dodgers not being able to score. Each of these hitters hit for at least six ProTrends. Each of them except for Turner have taken Senzatela deep and Turner is 8-for-19 lifetime off of Senzatela. There is a reason their implied run total is 6.7 for tonight. Of course, that can be reflected in their projected ownerships.
Other Hitters
There is some rain in the forecast, but the Toronto (Buffalo) Blue Jays could be in for some runs tonight. They have seemed to enjoyed hitting in Sahlen Field since beginning to play their last season. Bo Bichette is one of the best rated non-Coors hitters for tonight. He is hitting .371 in July and is riding a six-game hitting streak. The Blue Jays have an implied run total of 6.2 — not that far off from the Dodgers.
Wilmer Flores has not really been given the love that he has been deserving of being on the San Francisco Giants. He has become either their 3-hole or 4-hole hitter and has remained rather unknown. He has not got off to the best start in July, after a strong June — but his price point is really low for where he is hitting.
Tommy Pham is all over the Lineup Optimizer for tonight and hits for six ProTrends. He also is having a tougher July, after a fantastic June, but did rack up five hits in four games against these Nationals last week. The Padres could be in for some runs tonight, too.
Enjoy the first night of the second half!
Pictured above: Chris Bassitt
Credit: Alex Bierens de Haan/Getty Images
