Friday brings us a 14-game slate with first pitch at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
We have another tough pitching slate on tap for tonight. The highest priced pitcher on DraftKings is Jake Odorizzi and on FanDuel it is Alek Menoah, which is something.
The highest rated pitcher of the night for both sites is someone that I have not trusted all year: Blake Snell.
Now, maybe Snell has turned a corner as he has gone a combined nine innings allowing no earned runs in his last two starts. The problem is that he only received a win in one of those two starts because he cannot last long into ballgames.
He gets about as good of a match-up as one can ask for in the Colorado Rockies being on the road. Much has been made of the Rockies’ struggles this season when on the road, they just improved their road record to 7-33 yesterday.
This is a lot about how long you project Snell to last in this game. It could be a good time for the San Diego Padres to trust him a bit more – after a disastrous outing from Yu Darvish last night and it being Snell’s last trip to the mound before the All-Star Break.
The Bales Model has him at 91 pitches and 6.66 strikeouts for tonight — the strikeouts are second-highest on the slate just barely behind Menoah.
The next “best” option is Kenta Maeda. Maeda is having a very similar season to Snell. They both had much higher hopes for this season based on track record and neither has been able to live up to the hype.
Similarly to Snell, is Maeda turning a corner? In his last start, against the Kansas City Royals, he went six innings, gave up no runs and had 10 strikeouts. Easily the best performance of his season.
Maeda gets to see the Detroit Tigers, who still strike out a ton but have been a different team since the earliest parts of the season.
On April 7, against these Tigers, Maeda went six innings giving up two earned runs and racking up six K’s.
I like Maeda’s chances tonight. For good insurance, it looks like the wind should be blowing in from right at Target Field.
After that it feels like you’re splitting hairs. If you want to pay up, it looks like Charlie Morton is the best option. He gets the Miami Marlins and their fifth-worst 26.2 K%.
Morton has faced them three times already this season, including his last time out. He has combined for 15 1/3 innings, giving up 13 earned runs, and inducing 19 K’s. He has not had great success this season against them.
Morton is a bit more reliable this season than Snell or Maeda, but I think I would rather take the savings tonight.
On DraftKings (he is too expensive for my liking on FanDuel), I like Morton’s opponent in Zach Thompson. Thompson is relatively new to the big leagues, so he may be a new name to some, but this kid has some serious strikeout potential.
In 24 MLB innings this year, he has 31 strikeouts. That includes an 11 strikeout outing against the Washington Nationals. Oddly enough, Thompson has seen the Atlanta Braves twice this season already. He has combined for 11 innings, giving up three earned runs, and 12 strikeouts.
It’s a risk/reward play, so probably better suited for GPPs, but there is a contingent of folks that do not know about Thompson yet.
Maybe you elect to go with Taijuan Walker against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates have been a tough team to strike out all year and are really boom or bust with their offense (as was shown in their recent series with the Braves).
I think there are some better options than Walker, but cannot hate having a guy as a strong favorite in spacious Citi Field. The Pirates/New York Mets game is also the only one that looks to have any weather concerns.
Hitters
Notable Stack
In what may be a first of the season the top stack belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
- 1. Luis Arraez (L)
- 2. Josh Donaldson (R)
- 3. Nelson Cruz (R)
- 5. Max Kepler (L)
This group is projected for 51.9 FanDuel points on a salary of $12,700. It is quite a cheap stack and the reason they rate out so well is they get to face Matt Manning. I just heard the collective “who?” from the audience. Manning has four outings in the bigs this season and currently has a 7.94 ERA. Two outings ago, he gave up nine earned runs to the Cleveland Indians. He has three! strikeouts in 17 innings. He will not last long into this game. The top three names here all hit for five ProTrends on the night. It is an unusual stack, but could pay dividends tonight.
Other Hitters
Tim Anderson looks like a great play, especially on FanDuel. Targeting hitters facing Jorge Lopez is not a bad idea in general and the Chicago White Sox get to head to Camden Yards. He is a scorching .462 so far in July and just had four hits on Wednesday. It is hard to envision the White Sox not being able to put runs on the board tonight.
The Milwaukee Brewers have been thin on offense for much of the year, but Avisail Garcia looks like a bargain tonight. He gets a left-hander in Wade Miley, who has been decent this season but can still yield runs. He is also off to a strong start to July, batting .421 with eight RBIs in the month.
The Oakland Athletics could be a very popular stack tonight facing Jordan Lyles. Matt Olson has been their most consistent hitter all season and comes into this one on a five-game hitting streak. The A’s have an implied 5.2 runs in this one and Olson features prominently in the Lineup Optimizer.
I would consider right-handed Padres hitters, too. Either Tommy Pham or Fernando Tatis Jr. make good sense. Kyle Freeland has given up nine home runs in 37 2/3 innings. Generally, he has pitched better at home (this one is in San Diego) which is an oddity that many of the Rockies’ pitchers are following. He has a 6.50 ERA on the road and a 4.58 ERA at home. The Padres roughed him up for five earned on June 16th.
Pictured above: Blake Snell
Credit: Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images
