We have a full Major League Baseball slate on tap for Tuesday, with first pitch at 7:05 p.m ET.
Pitchers
The gap between Jacob deGrom and the rest of the starting pitching options on the Bales Model is unlike anything I have seen since I began using FantasyLabs projections.
It’s probably becoming hard for the daily fantasy sites to price deGrom at his current level of dominance.
Now, of course, deGrom gave up three earned runs last time out. His high mark of the season, which is insane. It moved his season ERA from 0.69 to 0.95. In that start, he did record 14 strikeouts, which was positive as he had a maximum of eight in his previous three starts.
He faces the Milwaukee Brewers who have had trouble with strikeouts all season. They are sixth worst in strikeout percentage. With the way that these two teams play, every game should be low scoring. The Bales Model has his K Prediction at 10.24 for this game.
The only real reason to fade deGrom is a worry over his minor injuries that have pulled him quick from starts this year. Otherwise, we pretty much saw what his floor was last time out and it was still impressive.
DeGrom hits for seven ProTrends and the Brewers have a slate low implied run total of 2.5 in the category.
The best remaining option is on the much cheaper side in Tony Gonsolin.
Gonsolin has pitched in five games this year and given up exactly one earned run in each. The problem is that he just is not remaining very long into games. The Los Angeles Dodgers are using him more as an extended opener than anything else.
So far, he has 22 strikeouts in 16 innings, but an ugly 13 walks. His high in pitch count is 81, so he is stretched out. The Dodgers just really have the training wheels on him.
He has a great match-up in the free-swinging Miami Marlins. They are fifth-worst in strikeout percentage.
I think it’s hard to justify the pivot off of deGrom to the savings of Gonsolin, especially with no Coors Field game on the schedule. However, locking in Gonsolin would allow you to have whatever bats you want in your lineup.
After that, it becomes hard to even recommend anyone. Maybe Ian Anderson?
Anderson gets to see the light-hitting Pittsburgh Pirates lineup. He’s not a high strikeout guy and the Pirates are actually a stronger contact team, but he has already had success against them once this year. On May 21st, Anderson went six innings of no-run, six strikeout ball against these Pirates in a 20-1 win.
I could maybe see using him, but I would not be expecting a high strikeout total from him.
Dane Dunning has an excellent match-up (Detroit Tigers), but definitely does not have my trust. He has gone more than five innings once since May 4th.
You could easily say the same thing about Jameson Taillon (Seattle Mariners) and I think that Aaron Boone and Co. are starting to throw a much shorter leash on him. That will be interesting to see play out, with a lot of the New York Yankees bullpen working 30+ pitches this past Sunday.
Love Framber Valdez as a pitcher, but he is probably priced too high going up against an Oakland Athletics team. That is a huge series and I could see the A’s trying to grind out some at-bats to get to that Houston Astros bullpen.
Hitters
The top stack of the night belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
- 2. Freddie Freeman (L)
- 3. Ozzie Albies (S)
- 4. Austin Riley (R)
- 1. Ronald Acuna Jr. (R)
This group is projected for 47.9 FanDuel points on a salary of $14,700. The Braves get to face Chad Kuhl of the Pirates. Kuhl has 28 walks in 45 1/3 innings and only 35 strikeouts. Along with most of the Pirates starting staff, he is below average. All of these hitters hit for five ProTrends and the Braves have an implied run total of 4.9 in the category.
Other Hitters
Trea Turner is a 99% Bargain on the Bales Model. He hit for the cycle last Wednesday and followed that up with a home run on Monday. His current on-base streak extends back to June 16th. He faces left-hander Ryan Weathers tonight. Trea likes left handers…on the season he is hitting .375 with an OPS of 1.020 against lefties compared to .303 and .849 against righties.
Odubel Herrera feels like a cheap top of the lineup bat. He homered in Monday’s affair. Now, he faces Jake Arrieta, who’s not the pitcher that he once was. The entire Philadelphia Phillies team hits for at least five ProTrends, with six for Herrera. The wind should be blowing straight out to dead center in Wrigley Field.
Could Nate Lowe be returning to his early season form? He is 7 for 22 with two homers in July, hitting safely in 14 of 16 games with one of his hitless games featuring three walks. Maybe he’s just benefiting from the warm weather in Texas. Not that they have the greatest lineup in world, but the Texas Rangers could be a contrarian stack going up against Jose Urena. Jonah Heim is not a bad punt play at catcher as well.
I really doubt that Justus Sheffield is able to hold the New York Yankees bats down for long. They are tied for the slate lead with 5.3 implied runs. D.J. LeMahieu feels like he is returning to form after a slow first few months. His on-base streak extends back to June 9 this season.
