Friday brings us a 14-game main slate with first pitch at 7:05 p.m. ET. It is looking like another interesting weather night, especially in New York City and Buffalo. Be sure to consult our Lineups page before lock.
Pitchers
This is going to be an interesting slate for pitchers. There is no real sure thing. Let’s get right to it.
The top option on FanDuel is Sonny Gray. I told you that tonight could be interesting.
Gray will be making a return from the injured list after dealing with a groin injury, which can always be tricky to forecast. The Bales Model has him projected for 89 pitches. He threw just 53 in his rehab start.
The good news about Gray is that he has had some great strikeout stuff this year, with 65 K’s in 50 innings. He has, however, given up eight home runs in just 10 starts.
The Reds are decent favorites in this contest at -149, mostly due to the Cubs rolling out Alec Mills. Chicago does own the third-highest K%, too.
I think I am fine with Gray tonight. Hopefully, he is not on too short of a leash.
Max Scherzer is one of your elite options and he faces the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Scherzer is putting together another really impressive campaign, that is seemingly being overshadowed by others. He has given up more than two earned runs twice this season. It occurred on April 6th and April 27th. In four starts in June (including one very short one), he only allowed three earned runs.
He has an impressive 119 K’s in 88 1/3 innings. It just may be difficult to justify his price tonight.
The Dodgers are the seventh-best team at avoiding strikeouts. They score the fourth most runs per game, including the third most runs per game on the road.
I would not be shocked if Scherzer had a strong start, it just may be hard for him to hit for value in this spot. If you are trying to fit in Coors Field bats, it becomes even harder. Based on relative price points, he is a better play on DraftKings than FanDuel.
I think I like Lance Lynn a little more than the Bales Model does tonight.
His last start was shortened to three innings due to rain, but he had not allowed a hit at that point. The start prior was probably his worst of the season, giving up six earned runs to the Houston Astros.
Lynn owns a 2.06 ERA (3.11 FIP) and a 0.99 WHIP. He has 90 strikeouts in 78 2/3 innings.
His opponent tonight, the Detroit Tigers, were the best offense to target starting pitchers against in the early part of the season. They continue to have the worst K% in the league, but have continuously heated up scoring runs of late.
Lynn saw the Tigers once this year already, on June 3rd. He went six innings, giving up one earned run and recording six strikeouts. I do not think it is crazy to see something similar tonight.
He does not necessarily rate poorly on the Bales Model, he ranks sixth overall on DraftKings.
Another cheaper option that the Bales Model likes is J.T. Brubaker, which is definitely not a name that I would be used to writing up, but I said it was going to be a strange night.
Brubaker pitches for the Pittsburgh Pirates, so it may be some what unlikely that he receives a win. He does get a pretty juicy matchup with the Milwaukee Brewers, though, hence the reason he rates out well.
The Brewers are sixth worst in K% and have been pretty consistent with striking out all season. Brubaker had one of his best starts of the year against them on April 16th. He went six innings, gave up one earned run, and had eight strikeouts.
A limiting factor with Brubaker, is that he has had a max of 93 pitches on the season. His most in June was 80 – so the Pirates are admitting that they do not want him in ball games too long. Of course, this is some what reflected in his cheaper price.
Rolling with Brubaker in a GPP makes a lot of sense.
Hitters
Notable Stack
The top stack of the evening is the St. Louis Cardinals:
- 2. Paul Goldschmidt (R – 9-12%)
- 3. Nolan Arenado (R – 21-25%)
- 4. Tyler O’Neill (R – 13-16%)
- 1. Dylan Carlson (S – 9-12%)
This group is projected for 55.5 FanDuel points on a salary of $15,900. The Cardinals are in Coors Field, which I am sure is not shocking. They will be an extremely popular stack as they get to face Chi Chi Gonzalez. They are an awful lot of implied runs in this game with both teams sitting at 6.3 runs. Every one of the Cardinals hitters hits for at least seven ProTrends, with O’Neill and Paul DeJong hitting for 10. Just to add on to the mayhem, it looks like the wind should be blowing out to dead center.
Other Hitters
The favorite non-Coors hitter of the evening is David Fletcher. Fletcher is solidly the lead-off hitter for the Los Angeles Angels and has strong protection behind him in Shohei Ohtani. While Fletcher does not have a home run on the year, he is in the midst of a 15-game hitting streak with multiple hits in six of those games. He hits for five ProTrends against Baltimore Orioles lefty Keegan Akin.
Another top of the order hitter who rates well is Jonathan India. He is a great way to get exposure to an impressive Cincinnati Reds lineup. He hit .303 with an .880 OPS in the month of June. He filled the stat sheet last night with two doubles, two walks, a hit-by-pitch, an RBI and a stolen base. The Reds have an implied run total of 5.3 tonight.
Yuli Gurriel is featured quite a bit in the Lineup Optimizer. He hit a monstrous .366 in June with a .934 OPS. He gets to face a left-hander tonight in Sam Hentges and the Astros’ lineup seemingly puts up runs every night. They could be a little contrarian stack tonight, with all of the attention on the lineups in Coors.
Pictured above: Max Scherzer
Credit: Patrick Smith/Getty Images
