Friday brings us a 13-game MLB DFS main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel with first pitch at 7:07 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Carlos Rodón, Chicago White Sox ($10,700 DraftKings; $11,200 FanDuel)
The best pitcher on Friday’s slate is also the most expensive one: Carlos Rodón. Even despite his expensive price tag, he rates out well on the Bales Model.
Rodón has been remarkably consistent: He has only allowed two or more earned runs in two starts all season. He has also struck out at least seven batters in all but one start. Rodón possesses an elite combination of striking out batters and lasting fairly deep into games.
Tonight, he draws a juicy matchup against the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners have the third-highest strikeout percentage (K%) in MLB and are bottom-third in runs per game.
Rodón faced the Mariners in his first start of the season on April 5. While it was a shorter start (five innings), he struck out nine batters and did not give up a run.
I have no hesitations with utilizing Rodón in a spot like this.
Tony Gonsolin, Los Angeles Dodgers ($9,500 DraftKings; $6,000 FanDuel)
The top pitcher on FanDuel from the Bales Model is Tony Gonsolin. For some reason, Gonsolin has a price of $6,000 on the site, which is only marginally more expensive than the likes of Matt Harvey and Andrew Kittredge.
In fairness, Gonsolin’s return on investment largely depends on his usage, because he is practically an opener. In his three starts, his maximum pitch count is 81, and the Bales Model projects him for 75 tonight.
If he is able to complete five innings for the first time with those 75-80 pitches, then he could be usable in a GPP entry — but only on FanDuel.
Framber Valdez, Houston Astros ($10,200 DraftKings; $10,700 FanDuel)
Framber Valdez has been nearly as consistent as Rodón. Valdez made a short start in late May after returning from injury; since then, he has been a “full go” throughout June. He has pitched at least seven innings and given up no more than two earned runs in each of his starts this month.
During that span since June 1, Valdez has faced the Boston Red Sox twice, the Minnesota Twins, and the Chicago White Sox. Minnesota’s offense notwithstanding, Valdez’s success has come against some very impressive offensive combatants.
He is actually slightly below one strikeout per inning, but that may be due to the relative strength of the opponents he has faced. Nonetheless, Valdez has posted strikeout totals of eight and 10 to his name.
Tonight, he gets the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers offense has really rounded into form over the last month, but the lineup is still striking out at a very high rate.
With the way that the Houston Astros are rolling right now, it feels like every start is a good opportunity for an Astros starting pitcher to record a win. The Astros are -271 favorites tonight.
There is a severe weather concern with this game, so be sure to check the Lineups page before lock time.
Pablo López, Miami Marlins ($9,300 DraftKings; $8,700 FanDuel)
There are not a ton of good options after Valdez. But if you’re looking to pivot away from the slate’s top options, then consider Marlins starting pitcher Pablo López. He averages precisely one strikeout per inning and generally has been reliable this year.
López faces the Washington Nationals tonight. In his previous start against Washington, López pitched seven innings, gave up zero runs, but only struck out two batters. That low strikeout total seems like an aberration. He has only had two strikeouts in one other start, and the Nationals are around league average in K%.
Dane Dunning, Texas Rangers ($6,400 DraftKings; $6,700 FanDuel)
The last pitcher to consider is Dane Dunning. He has been such a disappointment that his price has come way down this year.
Dunning has simply given up too many hits. He has allowed 77 hits in 65 innings of action; but on the bright side, he has also only allowed six home runs.
At times, Dunning has had the good stuff working: He has allowed zero earned runs in four starts. However, he has also given up four or more earned runs in four other starts.
Tonight, Dunning draws a matchup against the Kansas City Royals. The Royals’ offense is not too intimidating, especially without Adalberto Mondesi, but they have the second-best K% in the MLB.
Hitters
Notable Stack
The top stack of the night belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
- 2. Freddie Freeman (L)
- 3. Ozzie Albies (S)
- 5. Austin Riley (R)
- 1. Ronald Acuna Jr. (R)
This group is projected for 52.0 FanDuel points on a salary of $14,000. They are facing Vladimir Gutierrez of the Cincinnati Reds. The Bales Model is not high on Gutierrez, even though he has been serviceable in his previous few starts. A definite benefit is getting to play this game in Great American Ball Park — one of the better hitters’ parks in MLB.
Other Hitters
The Toronto Blue Jays own the second-best stack on Friday’s slate. Frankly, the Blue Jays stack makes even more sense to me as they go up against Matt Harvey. Marcus Semien is one of the highest-rated hitters tonight and can bring pop or speed. He has a double in each of his last two games. George Springer could be worth a look, too. He has taken Harvey deep twice in his career already.
The top-rated hitter is Tommy Edman of the St. Louis Cardinals. He is too cheap for a lead-off hitter going up against the Pittsburgh Pirates. He has seven hits in his last five games. Furthermore, while he does not feature significant extra-base hit capabilities, he has accumulated 13 stolen bases this season.
With the way that New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox games go, there should be some runs in Bean-town tonight. Luke Voit has looked in mid-season form since returning from the IL. In three games against the Royals, he had two home runs and a triple. He faces Martin Perez, someone whom he has taken deep twice in his career.
Tony Kemp has found himself as the primary lead-off hitter for the Oakland Athletics. He has put together a strong June, hitting .339 with a .452 OBP. Kemp has four home runs on the year, and three of them have occurred in June. The A’s head to a pitchers’ ballpark in San Francisco, but that could lead to more double- and triple-opportunities for Kemp. He has not had a zero-point fantasy performance since June 8.
