Tuesday brings us a 14-game main slate with first pitch at 7:05 p.m. ET. There are some cautionary games with the weather tonight, so definitely come back and check in on the Lineups page before lock.
Pitchers
There are plenty of big-name pitchers on today’s slate, with a bunch of aces toeing the rubber.
Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees ($11,000 DraftKings; $11,000 FanDuel)
The favorite on the Bales Model for both sites is Gerrit Cole. Cole has actually been struggling in June, having given up five home runs in three starts. At first, there was some speculation (thanks Josh Donaldson) that it was due to Cole’s usage of sticky substances. He has still picked up wins in each of his last two starts — and while his HR% is up in June, his H/9 really is not.
Cole faces the Kansas City Royals tonight — a team that strikes out at the second-lowest rate in MLB. Since the beginning of May, Cole only has three more strikeouts than innings pitched, so that trend may continue tonight. He still is in a great spot to pick up a win with New York as the resounding -273 favorite; Kansas City reports the lowest implied run total (3.0) of the night.
Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox ($9,400 DraftKings; $10,500 FanDuel)
If there ever was a start for Lucas Giolito to get back to previous form, it has to be tonight: He gets to face the Pittsburgh Pirates.
In fairness, Giolito has not been a horrible fantasy pitcher; he has still delivered strikeouts at minimum. Sadly, however, he has given up 16 home runs on the season, with six occurring in his last three starts. That may very well be the product of Giolito’s penchant to give up fly balls: Opponents have hit into 130 fly-ball outs against Giolito versus 72 ground-ball outs.
The Pirates own the fewest runs per game in MLB, but the team does a decent job of putting the ball into play with the fifth-best K%. Giolito hits for six Pro Trends tonight.
Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers ($10,000 DraftKings; $9,500 FanDuel
The Milwaukee Brewers lost to the Arizona Diamondbacks last night, which is a pretty shocking thing to do nowadays. Tonight, Freddy Peralta gets to face the Diamondbacks.
Peralta has been excellent, along with many of the Brewers’ pitchers. He has 104 strikeouts in 75 innings.
The Diamondbacks feature a league-average offense in terms of runs per game and K%. Peralta faced Arizona on June 4 and went 7.1 innings, giving up one hit, one earned run and striking out nine batters in his longest outing of the season.
Peralta is $1,000 cheaper than Giolito on FanDuel, which makes no sense to me. He has a really high ceiling tonight.
Blake Snell, San Diego Padres ($8,400 DraftKings; $7,500 FanDuel)
It is shocking how much Blake Snell’s price has come down this season — not that it has not been warranted.
He can still find pockets of brilliance, but generally he is only around for five innings to use it. He has only completed six or more innings twice this season and gets to face the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight.
The Dodgers are slightly above league-average in pitches per plate appearance at 3.96 (avg. is 3.92). Los Angeles also boasts the second-most runs per game, and the seventh-best K% in MLB.
Snell has seen the Dodgers twice already, with very similar stat lines in each start:
- First start: 5.0 innings, two earned runs, seven strikeouts.
- Second start: 5.1 innings, two earned runs, seven strikeouts.
By 2021 Snell standards, those were some pretty good starts. He is a high-risk, high-reward GPP play tonight.
Charlie Morton, Atlanta Braves ($7,300 DraftKings; $8,300 FanDuel)
Charlie Morton ranks well on both sites in the Bales Model. He is coming off his best performance of the year after 7.2 innings of no-run baseball against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Tonight, Morton faces the New York Mets in a strong matchup. The Mets have the second-fewest runs per game in MLB, along with the fewest pitches seen per plate appearance.
Morton faced New York once already on May 19: He went six innings, with one earned run and eight strikeouts.
In a scheduling quirk, the Atlanta Braves have played back-to-back doubleheaders. That may enable Morton to work deeper into this ballgame.
At a cheaper price than the top options, this is a good spot for Morton and I could see using him tonight.
Hitters
Notable Stack
The top stack of the night belongs to the Houston Astros:
- 4. Yuli Gurriel (R)
- 1. Jose Altuve (R)
- 3. Michael Brantley (L)
- 5. Yordan Alvarez (L)
This group is projected for 50.4 FanDuel points on a salary of $14,500. The Astros get to face Jorge Lopez in Camden Yards tonight and must be licking their chops. To put it simply, Lopez is one of the worst regular MLB starters, and I would be shocked if he were to have a successful outing against the best offense in the league. After a semi-successful May, Lopez has an 8.36 ERA so far in June. The entire Astros lineup hits for at least five Pro Trends, which is pretty rare.
Other Hitters
The top hitter for this evening is Joc Pederson. Pederson has cemented himself atop the Chicago Cubs lineup and has shown some pop this year with 11 home runs. He will see Eli Morgan tonight, who has given up 13 hits and three home runs in 6.1 innings. That could lead to a few at-bats against some middle relief, too.
Nolan Arenado boasts a 99% Bargain Rating on the Bales Model. He faces left-hander Tarik Skubal, who has some strikeout upside but can also get hit hard. Arenado is not a huge strikeout guy for the power that he can hit with. He is coming off of three hits including a home run in a doubleheader on Sunday.
We all know that Yasmani Grandal is having a weird year, as he is the definition of the three true outcomes. He has hit better from the right-side (facing lefty Tyler Anderson tonight) and has actually put up a decent June. He is hitting .231 with four home runs and 12 walks this month. As a cheaper catcher option, he very rarely puts up a zero.
Anthony Rendon is all over the Lineup Optimizer. He has been puzzling to figure out this year, with seemingly all of his power zapped out of his bat. It seems odd to think that Rendon is “over the hill” at age 31. In the month of June, he is hitting .268 with 15 RBIs — even despite going 0-for-8 in his last two games.
