Friday features another full slate, with 15 games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
The favorite for the evening on DraftKings is Trevor Bauer.
Of course, Bauer is not a new name to DFS players. He is a polarizing player, who is at the center of the MLB “sticky stuff” situation.
Tonight, he faces the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have simply become dreadful. This game will not be on the road, but they set the MLB record with a 23-game road losing streak yesterday.
With all that is swirling around regarding Bauer, he has sort of struggled in his last four starts. He has given up six home runs and 12 earned runs in that time frame.
I think it is fine to go back to the well again with Bauer in a situation that looks like there is a great chance at receiving the win. If he were to falter again, we know that the sticky stuff is really affecting him.
Alex Cobb rates out extremely well on the Bales Model tonight, and I just do not see it.
He faces the Detroit Tigers, who own the highest K% in the MLB. They have started to turn a corner in June, averaging 4.93 runs per game as opposed to their 3.88 season long average.
On top of that, Cobb is not the strongest pitcher in the world. He is coming off of back-to-back starts where he allowed five earned runs in both. The one positive is that he has 52 strikeouts in 43 1/3 innings.
I would tread lightly with Cobb tonight.
I could definitely see the appeal in using Jose Berrios tonight. Berrios is the ace on what is a surprisingly atrocious Minnesota Twins team.
For how bad the Twins are, Berrios still sits with a 7-2 record. They have won all of his starts, except for one since the start of May. The Twins face the Texas Rangers tonight.
The Rangers are another light-hitting offense, as they are bottom-third in runs per game and K%. They are tied for the second lowest implied run total of the night at 3.7.
Berrios’ strikeout numbers could be better this year, but he is going deep into ball games. Since the start of May, he has completed six innings in six of his eight starts, while completing seven innings in three of them.
I like Berrios’ chances at success tonight.
Chris Paddack is priced too low this evening. He gets a really tough matchup with the Cincinnati Reds, but he has really been rounding into form of late.
Like I said, the Reds are one of the best offenses in the league. They are fourth in runs per game and fifth-best in K%.
Paddack has looked much better in May and June, following a tougher April. He has recorded a quality start in four of his last five starts and has at least struck out six batters in four out of five, too.
The Bales Model likes him tonight as a cheaper option, especially on FanDuel. He could be a high risk, high reward GPP play.
I would avoid both pitchers in the Bronx (James Kaprielian and Jameson Taillon). It feels like there are runs in this game early on to me and the wind should be blowing out to left.
Consider Nick Pivetta, he is coming off probably his worst start of the season having given up four home runs in one game, but I would consider that more of fluke than anything. He had only given up five total home runs previous to that start.
His opponent, the Kansas City Royals, do not strike out very much (second-best in K%), but they are not the most imposing offense to starting pitchers. It could be a decent bounceback spot — or he too may be just struggling without the sticky stuff.
Hitters
Notable Stack
The top stack of the evening belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers:
- 2. Daniel Vogelbach (L)
- 1. Kolten Wong (L)
- 4. Avisail Garcia (R)
- 3. Christian Yelich (L)
This group of four is projected for 54 FanDuel points on a salary of $14,100. The Brewers get to head to Coors Field, hoping to inject some life into their offense. Despite owning a decent record, the Brewers have the 25th most runs per game. Antonio Senzatela has not pitched terribly within the confines of Coors Field, but that feels like it will not last all season, especially being such a pitch-to-contact guy. Is anyone brave enough to reverse stack this by going with Colorado Rockies hitters against Corbin Burnes?
Other Hitters
Mookie Betts gets a favorable match-up with left-hander Caleb Smith tonight. Betts is $900 cheaper on FanDuel than where he began the season, as he has had an up and down year. In his last four games, he has two games in which he has only had a walk and two in which he has multiple hits and a home run. That price starts to creep back up throughout the summer.
It is time to get in while the getting is good with Gary Sanchez. Throughout his entire career, he has been an extremely hot and cold hitter and it is clear that he is hot right now. He is hitting .298 in June with four doubles and four home runs. Like I said earlier, the wind in the Bronx should be blowing out to left.
How has Jonathan Schoop’s price not drifted upward? It still sits at $2,700 on FanDuel. He is hitting .386 in June with seven(!) home runs. In his last four games, he has eight hits. Even if Cobb is able to turn in a decent start, the price does not match the production that Schoop is showing right now. What a rejuvenation to his career.
Freddie Freeman appears an awful lot on the Lineup Optimizer. He is working on a seven game hitting streak that includes three home runs. Carlos Marintez is not the same pitcher that he once was and either way Freeman is 5-for-10 lifetime with a home run off of him.
Pictured above: Trevor Bauer
Credit: Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images
