Tuesday brings us a full 15-game main slate on the Major League Baseball card, starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
There are really no pitching aces on the MLB schedule, which doesn’t happen too often throughout the season. That said, we’ll work to determine the best of the rest options for your lineups.
The favorite on the Bales Model for both sites is Taijuan Walker.
Walker is experiencing a season that could revive his career with the New York Mets. He is currently seventh in the MLB with a 2.07 ERA.
I like that he has been able to complete seven innings four different times and has only allowed 3-plus earned runs in a start twice this year. He pretty much sits at exactly a strikeout an inning.
Walker faces the Chicago Cubs, who strikeout the ninth most in the MLB. They do have one of the better scoring offenses, but average 5.12 runs per game at home and 4.00 runs per game on the road, with this game occurring at Citi Field.
With few options, I like Walker for his price point.
If you want to start to go cheaper, the second-best option is Kwang Hyun Kim. He’s certainly not as impressive as Walker has been thus far, as he has not earned a win since April 23.
Kim pops because of his matchup. He gets to face the Miami Marlins, who have quickly become one of the lighter hitting teams in the league. They have the fifth-worst K% and are 24th in runs scored per game.
This should mean that Kim can limit the damage. My worry with Kim is that he just does not last long into games. His longest outing of the season was 5 2/3 innings.
He has also received a loss in his last four starts, with four home runs given up in his last three. Kim is a much more volatile play for me tonight, so he is suited for GPPs.
Mike Minor could be interesting facing the Detroit Tigers. At this point, we know how bad the Tigers’ offense is, although it has really started to turn a corner of late.
Minor is really an average starting pitcher within the league. He had one of his best starts of the season last time out against the Oakland Athletics, pitching seven innings and giving up one run.
On the season, he has seen the Tigers twice already, with a combined 11 2/3 innings, six earned runs and 17 strikeouts. So, he has been able to take advantage of the Tigers’ hitters consistent ability to strike out. He has given up 12 home runs on the year, with four in his last two starts (including the one earned run against the Athletics).
Again, Minor feels a bit of a risky play. It feels like he could have a dominant performance, or he could succumb to the recently improved Tigers lineup.
Normally, it would be a good night to recommend Lance McCullers Jr. as he gets to face the Texas Rangers. However, he is making a return from the IL and is supposedly being “piggybacked” by Jake Odorizzi. That is enough for me to avoid him, as it really limits his ceiling.
Yu Darvish is probably the best pitcher on this slate – and there is still some caution to recommending him.
The caution comes from him having to pitch in Coors Field. Now, there are games at Coors that don’t turn into home-run derbies. Monday’s game was an example of that.
Darvish has faced the Colorado Rockies twice already this season. Once in San Diego and once in Denver. They were back-to-back starts in May and he combined to throw 11 innings, with one unearned run, and 12 strikeouts.
Now, that is positive from the fact that he did not get hit hard while at Coors Field, but he only had two strikeouts in four innings in the Coors start. He racked up the K’s (10) in the next start back in San Diego.
So, maybe the Coors altitude effected the amount of break that Darvish was able to get on his pitches?
The good news is the Padres are big favorites at -241 odds, so it gives Darvish a good chance at getting a win. I think it is clear that you can do worse than Darvish, but again there are question marks.
Quick tidbit: if you’re feeling lucky, maybe J.A. Happ is able to regain form in the spaciousness of T-Mobile Park. Not all that long ago, at the end of April, Happ was sporting a 1.96 ERA. It currently sits at 5.75 on the season.
Of late, he is giving up far too many home runs, but the Seattle Mariners have one of the worst offenses in the league. I do not think it would be outlandish to see Happ’s first quality start since April.
Hitters
Notable Stack
The Padres have the best stack on the schedule:
- 3. Manny Machado (R)
- 4. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)
- 1. Tommy Pham (R)
- 2. Trent Grisham (L)
This group is projected for 58.8 FanDuel points on a salary of $16,800. This makes sense with the Padres taking on Chi Chi Gonzalez in Coors Field. Of course, this stack is going to cost a pretty penny, but it might be a good time to incorporate it into your lineup with so few elite pitching options. Gonzalez is a below average pitcher, who just gave up three home runs to the Marlins. He has faced San Diego earlier this year on the road. He went six innings giving up two runs that were both home runs.
Other Hitters
Cesar Hernandez is the top-rated, non-Coors hitter. All year, he has been priced quite cheaply. He has struggled a bit in the month of June, but gets a juicy match-up facing Matt Harvey. The struggles of Harvey are quite obvious this season, and he is giving up quite a few round-trippers. The Cleveland Indians could be a different stack.
Depending on where he hits in the lineup, it might be a good night to use Ryan Zimmerman. He comes in almost near the site minimum, and is projected to hit third. He has struggled in June with only four hits (three of those leaving the yard), but has a good match-up with lefty Tyler Anderson. He hits for five ProTrends. His teammate, Juan Soto, is extremely popular in the Lineup Optimizer as well.
Another high-rated hitter for the evening is Gavin Lux. He comes in too cheaply for someone projected to be near the top of the lineup for one of the best offenses in baseball. Prior to an hitless showing on Monday, he had five hits in three games with two doubles and a home run. Zach Eflin is no true slouch, but Lux is definitely too cheap.
