Our Wednesday card in the NBA postseason action features a three-game slate, starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Ben Simmons has had a slightly disappointing season. He’s ceded more of the offensive responsibilities to Joel Embiid, which allowed the 76ers to finish with the best record in the Eastern Conference. It also meant that Simmons posted career lows in points, rebounds and assists per game.
However, Simmons has absolutely crushed when facing the Wizards this season. He’s scored at least 45.75 DraftKings points in all three meetings vs. the Wizards, including 51.75 in Game 1. He remains one of the best values on the slate on DraftKings, where his $7,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Value
Derrick Rose was an excellent addition for the Knicks this season, and he played huge minutes in Game 1 vs. the Hawks. He’s not projected for quite as many minutes in Game 2 — he’s projected for 29.5 minutes in our NBA Models — but that should still be enough for him to return value. Rose has averaged 1.04 FanDuel points per minute this season, which makes him very reasonably priced at just $5,900. He also owns a great individual matchup, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.92 in the category.
Fast Break
Russell Westbrook’s salary has started to come back to reality a bit. He’s down to $11,400 on DraftKings and $11,600 on FanDuel, which makes him easier to fit into your lineups. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in four straight games, but he remains one of the best producers in fantasy. He leads the position in Pro Trends on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Trae Young is another excellent option on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 88%. He’s increased his production to 1.48 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he delivered a huge performance in Game 1 against the Knicks. He racked up 32 points, seven rebounds, and 10 assists, resulting in 56.75 DraftKings points.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The Jazz somewhat surprisingly held out Donovan Mitchell in the first game of their series vs. the Grizzlies, and Mitchell was reportedly “incensed” by that decision. However, The Athletic’s Shams Charania reports that Mitchell will be good to go in Game 2. The Jazz dropped the first game of the series, so getting Mitchell back in the lineup will hopefully allow them to right the ship.
Mitchell will likely be on some sort of minutes restriction in his first game back, but he’ll still have the chance to return value on FanDuel. His $8,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 78%, and Mitchell has averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.04 with a comparable price tag this season (per the Trends tool).
Value
The 76ers are the clear top team to target on the slate. They’re currently implied for 118.75 points, which is the top mark on the slate by a sizable margin. They scored 125 points in their first playoff contest, so there should be plenty of fantasy points to go around.
Seth Curry is someone who stands out from a value perspective. He’s become one of their most important role players, and he’s averaged 0.86 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. Curry is projected for 30.8 minutes on today’s slate, which should be enough for him to pay off his current salary.
Fast Break
Bradley Beal went off in Game 1 against the 76ers, racking up 55.5 DraftKings points, and he remains one of the best pure values at the position. His $8,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%, and he’s an interesting pivot off Westbrook in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). Beal and Westbrook are negatively correlated, so they tend to succeed at the expense of the other.
Desmond Bane is another potential value option at the position. He’s priced at just $3,800 on FanDuel, but he’s projected for 25.4 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.59, which is enough to make him relevant on a slate without a ton of value.
Small Forward
Stud
Small forward was absolutely loaded on yesterday’s slate, but the options are far less plentiful. There are only three players priced above $5,600 on FanDuel, and none of them are priced above $7,600.
Of that trio, R.J. Barrett stands out as the strongest option. His minutes were a bit down in Game 1 vs. the Hawks, but he leads the position with 37.5 projected minutes on the slate. Barrett has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his $6,200 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.
Value
Danny Green is another member of the 76ers we can target for some value. He sees a lot of court time for someone in this price range, and he only needs to knock down a couple of open 3-pointers to return value. Green shot 40.5% from downtown this season, so he’s very capable of getting that done.
Fast Break
Alec Burks stands out on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 97%, and he’s averaged a stout 1.27 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He played 26.1 minutes in Game 1 against the Hawks and finished with 37.75 DraftKings points.
Danilo Gallinari is one of the better values at the position on FanDuel. His $4,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%, and he’s increased his production to 0.95 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. Sadly, no bonus points for his playoff mohawk, though.
Power Forward
Stud
Julius Randle had a quiet performance in Game 1 against the Hawks, but he’s had a tremendous season for the Knicks. He averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute and was rewarded with the NBA’s Most Improved Player award. No one on the slate is projected for more minutes, and he leads all power forwards in Pro Trends on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Value
Royce O’Neale is another potential source of value. He’s not the most productive player on a per-minute basis, but he’s expected to see plenty of minutes for the Jazz. He’s currently projected for 32.3 minutes in our NBA Models, which is a lot for someone who costs just $4,000 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Tobias Harris went bonkers in Game 1 against the Wizards, finishing with 51.2 FanDuel points over 37 minutes. That said, that game looks like a major outlier. He posted a usage rate of 36.3% in that contest, which was his second-highest mark of the entire season. The only game where he posted a higher usage rate came with Embiid out of the lineup, so I’m not expecting a repeat performance in Game 2. Harris could still pay off his current salary even with a reduction in shot attempts, but there’s a chance he’s over-owned on the card.
Nerlens Noel is currently listed as questionable for the Knicks, and while it seems like he’ll be able to suit up, there’s no guarantee that he sees his usual complement of minutes. That makes Taj Gibson an interesting option. He played 24.3 minutes in Game 1 and responded with 23.25 DraftKings points, and that kind of production would make him a great value at just $3,300.
Center
Stud
Embiid struggled in Game 1 vs. the Wizards, but he should be able to bounce back in Game 2. He was limited to just 29.8 minutes due to foul trouble, but he still managed to score 30 points over that time frame. He should be able to stay on the court more on Wednesday, which gives him immense upside in this matchup.
Value
There aren’t a ton of options at center if you’re looking to save money. Noel is basically the only choice, and he does have merit if he’s active. He’s currently projected for 27.9 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.94 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s very reasonably priced across the industry, so he doesn’t need to do much to pay off his current salary.
Fast Break
Rudy Gobert is another excellent buy-low candidate. He fouled out in just 25 minutes in Game 1, but he was a force when he was on the floor. He should return to his usual workload in Game 2, and he should continue to find success in a soft matchup against the Grizzlies. They’ve struggled against opposing centers this season, giving Gobert an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.70. That’s the top mark at the position.
