Friday offers up a full 15-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
The favorite on the Bales Model tonight, is not one of the most expensive options, it is Chris Paddack.
Paddack has been outshined by the other starting pitchers in San Diego this season and has not looked quite like his old self. He has only recorded a 16th out one time this season.
The Bales Model has him projected for 85 pitches, so they are not being egregious with how long he lasts in this game.
The reason that he pops on both sites is the matchup. The Seattle Mariners have been one of the worst offenses in the league, having been no-hit twice this season with a team batting average below .200. Not to mention, they are the fifth-most likely team to strikeout.
This all makes Paddack worth a flier, but it is tough to really know how deep he will go into the game.
Trevor Bauer rates out okay on the Bales Model for tonight — and I am sure many will still use him.
He has recorded 77 strikeouts in 57 1/3 innings this season, which is excellent. The San Francisco Giants, his opponent, are the eighth-most likely team to strikeout.
Bauer has a sparkling 2.20 ERA, but he has given up eight home runs on the season (seven of them in April). The Giants offense has been not shy about putting up runs, as evidenced by their 19-spot yesterday. With this game being played in San Francisco, the wind is projected to be blowing straight out at 14 mph.
By no means should you full on fade Bauer, but I am not sure about 100% exposure.
The guy who feels just right for tonight is Ian Anderson.
Anderson has enjoyed some success in 2021, with a 3.20 ERA. He has only given up four home runs, but has walked 21 batters in 45 innings.
Tonight, he gets to face the Pittsburgh Pirates. who are tied with the New York Mets for the fewest runs per game in the league at 3.51.
This is an excellent matchup for Anderson as he hits for eight ProTrends.
I would probably avoid using Aaron Nola tonight.
Of course, Nola is one of the best pitchers in baseball, but the Boston Red Sox have arguably the best offense in baseball. They currently score the third-most runs per game at 5.16.
With Citizens Bank Park being extremely hitter-friendly, it is tough to justify paying up for Nola tonight. He does rate towards the top of the Bales Model, but I think there are better options.
For another cheaper option, Mike Minor is worth a look. The Detroit Tigers have been a favorite to target in daily fantasy sports because they are so light hitting.
They are the most likely team in the MLB to strike out and have the third-fewest runs per game.
On the surface, Minor’s numbers do look rough at a 5.02 ERA with just about a strikeout per inning. However, he is coming off his best start of the season with seven innings of one-run baseball against a much better offense in the Chicago White Sox.
Minor feels like a riskier GPP play – if he were to recapture what he had last time out, the upside is there.
I did not even realize Tyler Glasnow was initially on this slate. That’s how far down the Bales Model he is.
Obviously, he is priced high and gets a tougher match-up with the Toronto Blue Jays. I am just not that low on him tonight, if he is going to be faded by the masses then he becomes an interesting contrarian play.
The Blue Jays are very strong at avoiding strikeouts, but that will not necessarily stop Glasnow. He still has the third-highest K Prediction on the slate behind Bauer and Nola.
I think he is in my consideration set for a GPP.
Hitters
Notable Stack
The notable stack belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
- 4. C.J. Cron (R)
- 2. Trevor Story (R)
- 3. Charlie Blackmon (L)
- 1. Raimel Tapia (L)
This group of four is projected for 49.0 FanDuel points on a salary of $15,000. Not shocking, that this is the Rockies with their game being played in Coors Field. They are a significantly different offense home and away, as they score 5.88 runs per game at home and 2.79 on the road.
Colorado faces Seth Frankoff, who in four career games has an 8.68 ERA. Not to mention, the wind is supposed to be blowing straight out at Coors. A tough spot for Frankoff to come into. Tapia is the favorite hitter on the Bales Model on DraftKings.
Other Hitters
Albert Pujols is at $2,000 on DraftKings and has been hitting in the middle of the potent Los Angeles Dodgers lineup. Maybe the change of scenery is what Pujols was looking for – not to mention being on an actual contender. He is hitting .273 in the small sample since moving to the National League and hit his first homer in Dodger blue last night.
The Houston Astros have been the best offense in baseball this season. They strike out 18.2% of the time, which is more than 2.5% better than the second best team (Padres) at avoiding striking out. They get to go to Arlington to face Kyle Gibson, who is generally a pitch to contact guy. It really just feels like they can put up eight runs any night, with ease. The Bales Model sees Yuli Gurriel and Alex Bregman as being bargains tonight.
Mitch Garver can be rostered for nearly site minimums. He is an all or nothing play, and can definitely put up a bagel on any given night. In his last five at-bats, he has a double and a home run. He gets the youngster Triston McKenzie tonight, who sports a 5.79 ERA and has allowed seven home runs in seven starts.
I like the Kansas City Royals to score a bit tonight, as I think Jose Urena is a bit overrated. Andrew Benintendi pops up frequently on the Lineup Optimizer and is hitting .333 in the month of May (albeit with almost no pop). Salvador Perez hits for five ProTrends, while Cam Gallagher is essentially available for site minimums and hits for six ProTrends.
Pictured above: Ian Anderson
Credit: Todd Kirkland/Getty Images
