Despite another loaded main slate, there is an issue with roster selection because the pitching pool is diluted. Let us look at who to target on tonight’s 10-game slate that locks at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Twenty starting/opening pitchers and only two top the high-priced bar on FanDuel:
- Carlos Rodón (L) $11,400, CHW vs KC
- Trevor Bauer (R) $11,000, LAD vs MIA
There are concerns with Carlos Rodón. He is pitching on two extra days of rest after experiencing back and hamstring tightness, and the weather in Chicago around game time is less than ideal. First pitch temperature is expected to be 57 degrees with a 25% chance of rain, with rain around the area all weekend. For those unfamiliar with Chicago in spring, the weather is unpredictable and a temperature drop could happen. Not great for someone experiencing back issues.
Luckily for Rodón, the Kansas City Royals have been horrendous against left-handed pitching on the road. Entering Saturday, the Royals have a 54 wRC+ and the third highest Soft Contact percentage (Soft%) on the road versus southpaws. Kansas City is still a contact-heavy team so Rodón must pitch as close to his high bar in 2021 as possible.
Trevor Bauer and the Los Angeles Dodger will more than likely be the biggest favorites on the evening, but the game is off the board at most sportsbooks because we don’t yet know Miami’s starting pitcher. The Miami Marlins enter the slate with a top-10 strikeout rate against righties on the road and like the Royals, a high Soft%. Bauer’s Home Run-to-Flyball ratio is the highest it has been since 2017, but the Marlins are middle of the pack in converting flyballs to home runs. The Marlins also have the third-highest groundball-to-flyball rate on the road against right-handed pitching.
Bauer is projected to score more fantasy points than Rodón on FanDuel and DraftKings, but only has a lower salary than Rodón on FanDuel.
Values
Chris Paddack is the top-rated pitcher on both sites according to the Bales Model. Paddack gets a Cardinals offense that does not excel at much outside of hitting for power. The 25-year old has a career-best 0.68 Home Runs Per 9 but has been hampered by allowing 47.3% of baserunners to score in his six starts. Paddack’s xERA and xFIP are at least 0.77 runs below his 4.78 ERA. The Bales Model projects Paddack to score the fifth-most fantasy points on both sites. He is priced as the 13th pitcher on FanDuel and ninth pitcher on DraftKings and has a 98% Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
Triston McKenzie has issues with control and is on the road. So why target him? The Seattle Mariners are not good at home against righties. Seattle strikes out at the fifth-highest rate but also walks at the 10th-highest rate at home. McKenzie is priced just below Tyler Mahle and far enough ahead of Paddack that he will be passed on. The Cleveland offense is also about league average against pitchers such as Mariners starter Justus Sheffield.
Fastballs
Tyler Mahle would be a lot more interesting if the Rockies were not definitively better at home. The projected game total in Denver is at 10.5 runs and the weather is predicted to be the worst on the main slate. There is leverage with rostering Mahle, but I prefer to be wrong than roster him and get torched.
Ian Anderson is top-five option on both platforms against Milwaukee. The Brewers have lost nine of 13 May games and are averaging three runs per game in those contests. Expect higher ownership with Anderson.
Domingo Germán has exceeded projections in three straight starts, including a dominant outing against the Baltimore Orioles on April 28. He gets another crack at them in Baltimore as favorites.
Notable Stack
The desert saw raining baseballs Friday night, and the Bales Model likes another showcase from the Washington Nationals:
- Josh Bell (S)
- Trea Turner (R)
- Juan Soto (L)
- Kyle Schwarber (L)
Total Salary: $14,100
Josh Bell is the only hitter from this quadrant not rated in the top 10 on FanDuel, while Kyle Schwarber is the only one on DraftKings. That said, Bell has three hits in his last two games and Schwarber has home runs in back-to-back games and hits in seven of his last eight games. The power combo from this duo leads to a higher ceiling, but the resurgence from Josh Harrison is also in play for a Nationals stack. Diamondbacks starter/opener Seth Frankoff is averaging -3.5 FanDuel points per appearance.
Other Batters
The White Sox face a left-handed starting pitcher today. Chicago has one loss against southpaws since the start of last season. Tim Anderson is a top-10 player on DraftKings.
A cheap Diamondback to add to a Nationals stack is Pavin Smith. He has six hits, one double, two RBI, one walk and only one strikeout in five games this week. He is $2,500 on FanDuel and a top-five player on both sites.
José Altuve has a nine-game hitting streak that includes three home runs, eight RBI, and six multi-hit games.
Connor Joe has nine walks and reached base 15 times in 28 plate appearances since being called up by Colorado. Friday was only his second start without a hit. He is $2,500 on both sites.
Jesse Winker is now $6,000 on DraftKings and is coming off two subpar hitting games. Good thing Joulys Chacin is here to help. The Rockies’ starter is allowing 2.19 HR/9 and over 21% of flyballs allowed leave the yard. Paying up for top hitting is one way to differentiate, especially when the player in not named Mike Trout, Ronald Acuña Jr., and so on.
Aaron Judge being priced under $4,000 on FanDuel is fine by me. His two-homer performance last night will draw ownership but his current hitting heater comes with a lot of power upside.
Photo Credit: Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images
Pictured: Trevor Bauer
