Wednesday features a six-game NBA DFS main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
I’ve been complaining about Russell Westbrook’s salary for weeks, and it appears that the good people at DraftKings are finally listening. They’ve priced Westbrook up to $12,400 for tonight’s matchup vs. the Hawks, which represents an increase of $1,400 from his last start.
Still, I am not deterred. Westbrook has been an absolute monster recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +14.11 over his past 10 games, and he’s scored at least 80.25 DraftKings fantasy points (DKFP) in four of his past five contests. He should continue to carry an expanded workload with Bradley Beal out of the lineup, so I have no problem targeting Westbrook at his increased price tag.
Value
Paying up for Westbrook means we’re going to have to save money elsewhere, and we can do that with one of his Wizards teammates. Ish Smith is coming off 27.75 DraftKings points during 23.1 minutes in his last game, and he should inherit a similar workload on Wednesday. Smith is projected for 24.0 minutes in our NBA Models and has averaged 0.87 DKFP per minute this season. That should be more than enough playing time to pay off his $3,600 salary, which comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.
Fast Break
On the other side of that matchup, Trae Young stands out as one of the best targets of the day on FanDuel. The Hawks’ implied team total of 122.5 ranks first on the slate, and Young’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.04 ranks third at the position. He’s one of the best pure values on FanDuel, where his $8,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%.
Alex Caruso is questionable to play, but he could be an interesting value option if he’s able to suit up. Dennis Schroder remains out of the lineup, and Anthony Davis could also miss Wednesday’s contest after dealing with groin tightness on Tuesday. Caruso posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games before leaving yesterday’s contest with an injury, and his matchup vs. the Rockets results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.19.
The Lakers have a bunch of players on the injury report, so make sure to utilize the Labs Insiders tool for updates.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The Spurs are still trying to secure a spot in the play-in tournament. The odds are pretty good that they will get the job done – they own a 2.5-game lead over the shorthanded Pelicans – but they’re going to need to win at least one or two of their final four games to guarantee it.
With that in mind, don’t be surprised if they lean a little harder than usual on DeMar DeRozan. He’s played limited minutes in back-to-back blowouts, but he’s still averaged 1.17 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. His salary has decreased by -$1,000 over the past week, so he’s an interesting buy-low candidate vs. the Nets.
Value
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has been playing all the minutes he can handle recently. He’s logged at least 35.1 minutes in each of his past three games, and he’s responded with at least 29.5 DraftKings points in all three games. The Lakers are tentatively expected to get LeBron James back for this contest, but KCP’s role should be safe if Davis is ruled out. He’s an excellent value on DraftKings, where his $4,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%.
Fast Break
Talen Horton-Tucker is the preferred Lakers’ value on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $3,600, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 85%, and he’s currently projected for 21.5 minutes in our NBA Models. That’s not a ton of playing time, but THT has averaged 0.93 FanDuel points per minute this season.
Collin Sexton has shooting guard eligibility on FanDuel, and he should continue to carry a large workload for the shorthanded Cavaliers. Darius Garland remains out of the lineup, and Sexton is coming off 43.0 FanDuel points in his last outing. He leads the position with 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $7,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James is tentatively expected to return to the court Wednesday vs. the Rockets. James has been upgraded to questionable after missing the past five games. The Lakers are still the favorites to win the Western Conference, but they need James at full strength for that to happen.
James is not really in play on DraftKings but os an interesting option on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $8,900, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 88%. James will almost certainly be limited if he does return to the court, but he could still pay off his reduced salary in limited minutes given his average of 1.40 FanDuel points per minute this season. Davis being out of the lineup would only increase his chances of returning value.
Value
Bruce Brown has been a valuable role player for the Nets, and he’s averaged a strong 1.04 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. The Nets could have their “big three” in the lineup for just the eighth time this season, but that should still leave a role for Brown. He’s projected for 24.1 minutes in our NBA Models, which should be enough to return value.
Fast Break
Evan Fournier is another member of the Celtics who is going to have to pick up the slack on Wednesday. He’s been great recently with Brown out of the lineup – scoring at least 33.5 DraftKings points in five straight games – and he should see some additional usage with Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart also out of the lineup.
Luka Doncic has small forward eligibility on DraftKings, and I’ll never fault you for paying up for Doncic at that position. Small forward has become the weakest position in fantasy, and no one on today’s slate can match his upside at the position.
Power Forward
Stud
The Celtics are going to be a popular team to target on Wednesday, and Jayson Tatum is obviously one of their strongest options. He’s seen a usage bump of +6.0% with Brown and Walker off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.36 DraftKings points per minute. He’s played at least 38 minutes in each of the past three games, and he’s coming off 56.5 DraftKings points yesterday vs. the Heat. The Cavaliers represent a much easier matchup – they rank tied for 26th in defensive efficiency – so Tatum has the potential for an even better performance tonight.
Value
Kyle Kuzma has the potential to be one of the best values of the day if Davis is ultimately ruled out. Kuzma’s usage rate has increased by 2.1% with Davis and Schroder off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.93 DraftKings points per minute. He’s played at least 31.1 minutes in each of his past five games, so he’s very reasonably priced in a great matchup vs. the Rockets.
Fast Break
James Johnson has racked up at least 31.9 FanDuel points in each of his past two games, which is not all that surprising given the Pelicans’ current injury situation. Johnson has always been an awesome fantasy producer when given the opportunity to play, and he should continue to see significant minutes with Zion Williamson and Steven Adams out of the lineup. He’s projected for 30.4 minutes in our NBA Models, and Johnson has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.89 with a comparable minute projection (per the Trends tool).
Davis Bertans hasn’t been nearly as good this season as he was last year, but he should receive a slightly larger workload with Beal sidelined. He racked up 22.8 FanDuel points over 31.2 minutes in his last outing and remains very affordable at just $3,700.
Center
Stud
Clint Capela stands out as an elite option at just $7,600 on FanDuel, which results in a Bargain Rating of 87%. His nine Pro Trends rank second at the position, and he’s coming off 48.9 FanDuel points in his last outing. Furthermore, Capela has averaged a stout 1.34 FanDuel points per minute all season. His matchup vs. the Wizards is also a good one, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.57 on FanDuel.
Value
Dean Wade is coming off 37.8 minutes and 45.5 DraftKings points in his last outing, and he could be looking at another huge workload on Wednesday. Cedi Osman is currently questionable, while Isaiah Hartenstein has already been ruled out. Kevin Love isn’t listed on the injury report, but he could be shut down at any moment. That would leave the team with little depth behind Wade at power forward.
Fast Break
Tristan Thompson should handle most of the center minute for the Celtics on Wednesday, and he’s increased his usage rate by +6.0% with Brown, Smart, Walker, and Robert Williams off the court this season. He’s averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute in that situation, so he carries significantly more upside than usual.
Jakob Poeltl is one of the best values at the position on DraftKings, where his $5,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. He also owns one of the best matchups at the position vs. the Nets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.72.
