Sunday’s main slate features 11 games starting at 1:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
The four pitchers who have the highest projected ownership on Bales Model are:
- Jacob deGrom NYM vs ARI
- Kyle Hendricks CHC vs PIT
- Lucas Giolito CWS @ KC
- Adam Wainwright STL vs COL
Leading MLB with an ERA of 0.51, Jacob deGrom has been quite impressive throughout his 2021 campaign. Reaching double-digit strikeouts in three of his five starts this season, deGrom will be looking to continue his dominance against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks have struggled on the road this year as their team batting average is only .220 through 22 away games. Losers of their last five games, the Diamondbacks will be hoping to avoid their second consecutive sweep this afternoon. With the lowest projected implied runs total of 2.4 on today’s slate, I don’t foresee any changes to the Diamondbacks’ recent luck. Jacob deGrom is the highest rated pitcher on Bales Model for DraftKings.
Kyle Hendricks has been extremely inconsistent to start the 2021 season. With quality starts in every other game he has pitched in, if the same trend continues, he is a strong fade candidate. Today he will be throwing to the Pittsburgh Pirates who don’t have a batter in their lineup priced over $4k on DraftKings. Current weather predictions favor pitchers in the game this afternoon, as the temperature is expected to be in the 50s with a 16-mph wind blowing in from center field. The Pirates have the second-lowest implied runs total on today’s slate of 2.7. Hendricks is the highest-rated pitcher on Bales Model for FanDuel.
Lucas Giolito is a solid pitching option to consider on this afternoon’s slate. Although he struggled against the Boston Red Sox a few starts ago, Giolito has found his form again, eclipsing seven or more strikeouts in all his other starts this year. Today he will be throwing against the Kansas City Royals, who are on a seven-game losing streak. In their last three games they have only scored one run, while allowing 16 runs to their opposition.
Adam Wainwright will be hoping to finish off the Cardinals’ sweep against the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies have a 2-13 record on the road this year, while averaging just over three runs per game. Weather is a concern in today’s game as the projected precipitation is currently 48% and humidity 96%. If you are willing to risk fighting off the weather, I think this is a great spot for Wainwright to pick up his second consecutive win on the season.
Value
A low-priced pitcher I strongly recommend considering today is Mike Minor of the Kansas City Royals. Minor is priced at his lowest point all season and Bales Model projects him to have the second-highest pitch count on the slate this afternoon (97).
Matthew Boyd is another strong value play to consider as he has pitched very well in all but one start this year. In his most recent start, Boyd was pulled from the game after one inning pitched due to left knee tendinitis. If his recovery from injury went as well as manager A.J. Hinch mentioned, I expect Boyd to take full advantage of the Minnesota Twins, who are 12-20 this season. Weather is a concern in today’s game as precipitation is currently projected at 49%.
Dane Dunning is the last value play worth mentioning as he is the lowest-priced pitcher on DraftKings. Dunning has struck out 29 batters in 28 1/3 innings and will be facing the Seattle Mariners this afternoon. Dunning will try to keep the Mariners’ batters guessing as they have the eighth-most strikeouts in MLB through their first 34 games (319).
Hitters
Notable Stack
Today’s top stack comes to you from the -145 Houston Astros:
- Jose Altuve (R)
- Michael Brantley (L)
- Alex Bregman (R)
- Yordan Alvarez (L)
Projected to have the highest implied runs total of five, the Astros batters will be facing Nate Pearson from the Toronto Blue Jays. The Astros have scored an average of seven runs their last three games and will be looking to continue their hot hitting. On FanDuel, this stack will cost you $14.2K in salary and is projected for a combined 48.7 fantasy points.
Other Hitters
The highest floor play on the slate not previously mentioned is Juan Soto, who has reached base safely in four of his last 10 at bats, and today will be looking to get the better of Domingo German. German has allowed six home runs in his first five starts of the season and might struggle again today in a hitter-friendly ballpark.
The highest rated batter on Bales Model today is DJ LeMahieu. Like German, Joe Ross has also allowed six home runs in his first five starts of the year. A projected 11-mph wind blowing out to left-center field will favor batters in today’s game.
Value
Lastly, here is a list of some value batters to consider while completing your lineups today:
- Tyrone Taylor
- Nomar Mazara
- Victor Robles
- Billy McKinney
- Marwin Gonzalez
Photo Credit: Jim McIsaac/Getty Images
Pictured: Jacob deGrom
