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Pitchers

Corey Kluber, CLE

Jake Arrieta is never a bad option, but he arguably doesn’t have the type of ceiling that Kluber has today. Not only is the latter averaging 0.56 more strikeouts per nine innings, but Minnesota’s projected strikeouts per at-bat are .033 greater than Pittsburgh’s. Projected to allow only 3.2 runs, Kluber might even be the most valuable player of this entire slate, given his 90 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel.

Jose Quintana, CWS

The Yankees’ struggles against left-handed pitching were noted just yesterday, before they went out and appeared lost against Chris Sale. Quintana is admittedly (obviously?) no Sale, but he continues to have an otherworldly Plus/Minus at FD due to his lower salary:

 

 

Also note that Quintana has allowed 0.34 fewer home runs per nine innings to right-handed (as opposed to left-handed) batters over the last year — and the Yankees deployed eight right-handed hitters against Sale last night. If their approach remains the same, Quintana could potentially match Kluber in the early slate.

Aaron Nola, PHI

Nola (not Arrieta) may be the strongest pivot away from Kluber (in the all-day slate). Note Cincinnati’s poor .293 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) versus right-handed pitching. Additionally, the Reds have a top-seven strikeout rate against said handedness. Nola is absolutely worth his price, as he has a top-five batted-ball distance allowed in the last two weeks. With as many Pro Trends as Arrieta has, Nola is the strongest option in the main slate.

Pitchers to Exploit

Kendall Graveman, OAK

The Rays strikeout in 27.4 percent of their at-bats versus RHP, but that’s not really Graveman’s forte. His forte is giving up home runs, as evidenced by his 1.5 HR/9 allowed in the past year. With a batted-ball distance of 244 feet allowed in his last two starts, Graveman makes Tampa Bay one of the better under-the-radar stacks of the day.

Michael Foltynewicz, ATL

Kansas City has a bottom-five Isolated Power (ISO) vs. RHP, but “Folty” should “help” that. After all, his HR/9 allowed in the past year are 0.32 more than any other pitcher in tonight’s slate has allowed. Between Eric Hosmer, Kendrys Morales, Salvador Perez, and even Omar Infante, the Royals have enough sluggers hitting the ball at above-average rates as of late to warrant even cash exposure.

Marco Estrada, TOR

Estrada has allowed only two runs in his last two starts, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. His hard-hit percentage has increased by 17 percentage points in that span. While most DFSers will likely stack against Colby Lewis in this game, it’s also worth stacking in the opposite direction, as Estrada’s exit velocity allowed is two miles per hour faster than Lewis’ over their last two starts.

C

Jason Castro, HOU

A measly salary of $2,500 at FanDuel is too low for someone with the highest exit velocity at his position. Castro has also averaged a top-three batted-ball distance over his last 10 starts. It would help if Castro would bat in the top third of Houston’s lineup (rather than at the end), but no matter. His wOBA and ISO Differentials of .095/.124 shouldn’t be overlooked.

Jonathan Lucroy, MIL

Luis Perdomo has yet to make a single start this season, but his line-drive percentage is second only to Dillon Gee’s tonight. Assuming that the Brewers opt to keep their roof open, Lucroy is arguably in the most advantageous spot of the evening due to A) having the highest batted-ball distance among catchers and B) the winds blowing out to center field at 11 miles per hour.

1B

David Ortiz, BOS

Colin McHugh’s batted-ball distance allowed in the last two weeks isn’t the worst, but his 1.4 MPH drop in velocity is. What’s worse is that he’ll now be lobbing pitches to Ortiz, whose hard-hit percentage is nine percentage points higher than that of any other first baseman.

Justin Smoak, TOR

While most DFS players will likely lean toward Edwin Encarnacion in cash games, Smoak might be the superior play. His batted-ball distance over the last 15 days is actually 21 feet superior to Encarnacion’s. He also costs $1,100 less at FD. If anything, he’s a contrarian way to gain exposure to Toronto.

2B

Ben Zobrist, CHC

Zobrist has been making solid contact over the last two weeks, but he’s now in an even better position with a lefty on the mound. He has recorded a .548 slugging percentage against southpaws, which is .066 greater than that of any other second baseman in the early slate.

Robinson Cano, SEA

Even $5,100 at DraftKings (or $4,100 at FD) is too cheap for Cano, who’s a top-two qualifier in nearly every category that matters tonight — wOBA, ISO, ISO Differential, and slugging percentage. That doesn’t bode well for Jhoulys Chacin, whose hard-hit percentage trails only Logan Verrett’s.

3B

Kris Bryant, CHC

Forget about Bryant’s -.026 wOBA Differential and instead focus on his 236-foot batted-ball distance. He also has the most Pro Trends of any third baseman in the early slate.

Brett Wallace, SD

Wallace qualifies at only first base on FD, but there are much stronger options at that position in the main slate. Rather, he should be targeted as a third baseman on DK: His exit velocity is quietly tied for third at the position. Additionally, he’s in a terrific spot against Wily Peralta, who has allowed 0.65 more HR/9 to lefties than righties over the last year.

SS

Brad Miller, TB

Miller’s .140 ISO Differential is the highest among shortstops this afternoon. Although today marks the fourth consecutive game in which his salary has increased, he still costs only $2,800 at FD. That’s clearly too cheap for someone who leads his position in batted-ball distance.

Corey Seager, LAD

Carlos Martinez’s 8.98 SO/9 are the highest in the main slate, and he’s a bottom-five pitcher in terms of Batted-Ball Distance Differential. Seager has Upside, and his 94 percent Bargain Rating at DK gives him an excellent chance of achieving his salary-based expectations.

OF

Corey Dickerson, TB

If you’re stacking against Graveman [Editor’s Note: And it’s hard not to want to stack against a guy whose surname contains the word “grave.”], Dickerson is a player to roster. His exit velocity in the last 15 days (87 MPH) is poor, but his .610 slugging percentage is still third-highest among outfielders. Also note his top-two .240/.274 wOBA and ISO Differentials.

Jackie Bradley, BOS

Despite a negative wOBA Differential vs. RHP, Bradley is a terrific option due to the fact that he has made much better contact in the last 15 days. Just note that his Batted-Ball Distance and Hard-Hit Differentials are up 19 feet and 15 percentage points from his yearly averages. Additionally, McCugh has allowed a slightly higher batted-ball distance in that span.

Brandon Drury, ARI

Jake Peavy checks in as the lowest-rated pitcher in our Bales Model for obvious reasons. And Drury is a top option at outfield given his 12 Pro Trends. He also has double eligibility on DK at third base, but the bevy of options there make it harder to roster him at that position. Either way, his top-10 hard-hit percentage should make its way into every lineup.

Alex Gordon, KC

Gordon is finally coming into his own this season, and it’s not just because he has nailed two homeruns in his last four games. His batted-ball distance over his last 10 starts has reached 255 feet. Opposing Foltynewicz and his aforementioned negative peripherals, Gordon is easily a unique yet confident way to gain exposure against the pitcher.

Weather Watch

Reds-Phillies is expecting thunderstorms throughout the evening, so it would not at all be shocking to see the game postponed. Tigers-Orioles might see scattered thunderstorms, but a delay rather than an outright cancellation is more likely.

Good luck!