The PGA TOUR heads back to Florida this week as Innisbrook Resort hosts the Valspar Championship. The course is a par-71 measuring at 7,300 yards with Bermuda grass greens. This is one of the more difficult courses on TOUR and the winning score will likely be below the 10-under range.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest type.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories that you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
For more information on Strokes Gained data and how to use it, check out this article from Bryan Mears on The Action Network, which unpacks each of the above metrics in detail. I also recommend Chris Murphy’s Strokes Gained column after each round of that week’s PGA TOUR event, which highlights golfers to buy and fade, and Matthew Vincenzi’s weekly “Stats That Matter” column, which highlights which Strokes Gained sub-metrics matter the most for a given course. The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
Core Plays
Corey Conners ($9,600 DraftKings)
It’s becoming difficult to find superlatives to describe Conners at this point. He has established himself as one of the best ball-strikers on the planet and has even improved his putting, which was a big time bugaboo for him. He’s playing like one of the game’s elites and he’s still not being priced like one. That’s largely due to him not finding the winner’s circle yet this season. However, he does have seven top 10sm including four in his past five starts.
It’s truly been a ridiculous stretch of golf for Conners, who ranks No. 1 in this field in SG: Ball-Striking over his past 48, 36, 24,16 and 12 rounds. He’s the third favorite in betting market behind Justin Thomas and Dust Johnson and is still only priced at $9,600 on DraftKings. He’s as strong a play as you can find this week and also has a bit of history here, finishing 16th in 2018 in what was his lone start at this event. He’s exactly what we’re looking for in a cash game play.
Abraham Ancer ($9,300 DraftKings)
Ancer, much like Conners, does not get recognized enough for his play, as he’s also one of the purest ball-strikers on TOUR. It’s been his putting that’s kept him from contending lately, though he does have two top 10s this season. He’s now made 14 of 16 cuts on the year, including seven top-26 finishes in his last 10 starts.
In his lone start at this event he finished T-16 back in 2018. Ancer has been especially locked in of late, ranking fifth in this field in both SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Ball-Striking over his past 12 rounds. You can make the case for paying up for both JT or DJ this week, but I much prefer the balanced build approach and Ancer will be staple of that.
Jason Kokrak ($8,700 DraftKings)
Kokrak may be a tad underpriced for both his recent form and his course history at Valspar. He’s posted three top-10s in his last four stroke play events and has made 12 of his 15 cuts on the year as well. After missing the cut here in his first three trips, he’s since gone T-2, T-8, T-7 and T-14 in his last six starts at Innisbrook.
The big fella ranks No. 2 in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green and No. 3 in total strokes gained both over his past 12 rounds. We get a decent discount on him at just $8,700 and he fits both in balance builds or as a second golfer behind JT or DJ if you decide to go that route.
Value Plays
Charles Howell III ($7,700 DraftKings)
Chuckie Three Sticks has been in really good form of late, making four of his past five cuts including a T-9 a THE PLAYERS and a T-18 his last time out at the RBC Heritage. His course history at Innisbrook is as good as anyone in this field, as he’s made six of his seven cuts here including a top 10 and a top five.
Howell has been pretty solid in all facets of the game of late, ranking 22nd in this field in total strokes gained across his past 12 rounds. After a brief three-week hiccup at the end of January where he missed three straight cuts, the veteran has been pretty consistent, and at just $7,700 all we need him to do is make the cut. He’s a rock-solid cash game option this week.
Doug Ghim ($7,300 DraftKings)
Ghim will be making his debut at Innisbrook this week, but as is the case in most of his starts, we should be looking at yet another made cut at a low price tag. He’s now made the weekend in 13 of his 17 starts this season, a pretty impressive feat for someone still getting his feet wet on the PGA TOUR.
Ghim’s long-term rolling numbers look very strong, as he ranks eighth in this field in both SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Approach over his past 48 rounds. He also ranks 20th in total strokes gained in that stretch as well. He hasn’t shown a ton of upside, but he’s been incredibly consistent this season and did finish T-5 at the Amex, so we know he can contend if he gets hot with the putter.
John Huh ($7,000 DraftKings)
We will round out the value plays with Huh, who is in the midst of a renaissance season at age 30. He’s missed a few cuts at this event, but also boasts a T-9 and a T-22 as well. Now that he’s healthy again we should expect him to make the weekend and give us a pretty nice finish for just $7,000.
Huh ranks 17th in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green across his past 24 rounds, and you can certainly do a lot worse at this bargain bin price tag.
Other Targets
Patrick Reed ($10,300 DraftKings)
I played Reed at this event the last time it was held two years ago and he burned me pretty badly, but prior to that he’d posted a pair of runner up finishes and a T-7 in his previous four trips. I find it hard to believe he would miss two consecutive cuts at a course he clearly loves.
We know he’s a stone-cold killer and one of the best closer’s on TOUR, plus we get a nice four-figure discount from JT and DJ. He likely won’t be that popular because no one ever plays Patrick Reed, but there’s no denying his win equity. He’s my favorite tourney play on the week and have zero qualms about running him in cash as well.
Photo Credit: Sam Greenwood/Getty Images
Pictured: Corey Conners
