Tuesday’s major League Baseball slate is different on both sites. DraftKings features a 13-game main schedule, starting at 6:30 p.m. E.T., while FanDuel has an eight-game main card that begins at 7:05 p.m. E.T.
I will try my best to cover both scheduled in this detailed preview.
Pitchers
I had to blink a few times when seeing Chris Paddack‘s salary on FanDuel. At $6,900, he is by far and away the best play on the Bales Model for FanDuel.
It doesn’t seem all that long ago Paddack was the San Diego Padres’ ace. Now, he is no longer considered that following the additional pitchers the Padres have brought in. However, he’s no slouch either.
Paddack is facing the Milwaukee Brewers, plus their bona fide ace in Corbin Burnes. This game just has a script that’s very similar to the one these two teams played Monday: the first to three runs wins. Paddack hits for seven ProTrends, and the Brewers’ lineup is still without Christian Yelich. Bottom line, he’s is just too cheap on FanDuel.
For the larger slate on DraftKings, the Bales Model rates Luis Castillo as the No. 1 option.
Now, this is a buy-low opportunity and some DFS players might not be into that situation.
Castillo is already $2,600 cheaper on DK than when he started the season, and that’s because he has appeared to be a shell of himself. He has given up three home runs in 15 1/3 innings to the tune of a 7.04 ERA. The good news is that his BB/9 is 1.8, which would be a career low, along with a FIP that sits at 4.86. That stat could mean he has gotten a little unlucky thus far.
The play does come with some clear risk, as his opponent, the Arizona Diamondbacks, have been one of the more surprisingly good offenses in the MLB. They are 9th in K% overall and 5th in runs scored in the National League. Not to mention, there is a threat of rain for the game.
Las Vegas oddsmakers have this game with the Cincinnati Reds as -131 favorites, which feels to me like they’re banking on the old Castillo to show up soon. If he looks even a bit more like his former self, he hits for value.
For a more higher-priced option, Zach Wheeler makes a lot of sense. In his three starts this year, he has already ranged from dominant to mediocre at best, but does have 20 strikeouts in 18 innings.
This time he faces the San Francisco Giants, who have the ninth-worst strikeout percentage in baseball. The Giants have the fewest runs scored per game in the league at 3.19 as well.
This could be a nice get-right game for Wheeler, where he is able to rack up some big strikeout numbers. The Philadelphia Phillies are currently -156 favorites for the game.
I wanted to touch on Corbin Burnes quick.
He’s absolutely on fire, squarely launching himself as the No. 2 in the early National League Cy Young race. Of course, his price is going to start to reflect that and it is $1,300 more on FanDuel than at the start of the season. He faces the San Diego Padres. They have the second best K% in the MLB. I realize they don’t have Fernando Tatis Jr., but their lineup is still formidable. He can definitely shut them down due to the fact he’s completely at the top of his game right now, but it’s really tough to lock him.
Hitters
Notable Stacks
The highest projected scoring stack will not be playing Coors Field. It’s as follows:
- 3. Josh Bell (S)
- 1. Trea Turner (R)
- 4. Kyle Schwarber (L)
- 2. Juan Soto (L)
This is quite unusual to have a Coors game on the schedule and not have the best stack be playing there. This group of Washington Nationals is projected for 48.9 FanDuel points on a $14,600 salary. The Bales Model does not like Adam Wainwright at all tonight and that reflects here. He has already gotten shelled a few times this year and looks like he may be over the hill. There are some very strong lifetime numbers against Wainwright up and down the Nationals’ order too. Soto is 3-for-8, Bell is 7-for-23 with one home run, and Turner is 3-for-7.
Other Hitters
Myles Straw gets the big benefit of being cheap, hitting leadoff, and hitting in Coors Field. The Houston Astros have an implied run total of 6.0, which is easily the highest on the slate. Straw is the top-rated hitter for both sites on the Bales Model. The Astros stack was right behind the Nationals stack for best of the night, so unsurprisingly Alex Bregman rates out strongly as well.
The Los Angeles Angels are going to be a popular stack, just as a pure fade of Jordan Lyles. That is moving Mike Trout and Albert Pujols way up the Bales Model. Trout hits for five ProTrends and the Angels have an implied total of 5.1 runs. I would not expect to see a quality start out of Lyles.
If you are not rostering Wheeler as a starting pitcher, Tommy La Stella shows up frequently in the Lineup Optimizer. This is really due to his price being quite low and the fact that he is projected to hit lead-off. He is not a bad punt play that can fit into multiple batting slots.
A lot of the New York Mets rate out towards the top of the Bales Model as well. That probably has more to do with facing Jake Arrieta who can be extremely hit or miss than their offense thus far. It might not be a wild contrarian stack to go after the top of the order Mets hitters in a GPP. For an interesting nugget: Jeff McNeil is a lifetime 15-for-26 off of Arrieta with a home run. There has to be something to that.
Pictured above: San Diego Padres pitcher Chris Paddack
Photo credit: Ron Jenkins/Getty Images
